Friday, January 30, 2009

Dow drops 775 in January

Dow sold off in the PM, it hovered on the 8K line for the last hour. Dow closed down 148, decliners over advancers 3-1 & NAZ sank 31.

Averages I follow were lower in sympathy with the markets. The Alerian MLP Index was down 1½, on the 200 line all day (as shown in the Yahoo badge on the right of my blog). REITs were weak, junk bonds mixed & VIX was up 2½ to 45 on increased fears.


Two of the "safer" stocks in the Dow, which are also Dividend Aristocrats, have gotten off to a bad start this year. It's very unsettling when safer companies are having difficulties during this recession.

Procter & Gamble (PG) reported higher profits in Q2 (just completed), but that was attributable to the sale of the Folger coffee business. PG was "comfortable" with analysts' consensus earnings estimate of $4.29 for this fiscal year. P&G's revised forecast for EPS was $4.20 - $4.35, down a few pennies from earlier guidance. The stock dropped 3.78 to 54.44.



Procter & Gamble --- YTD





Wal-Mart (WMT) is the largest retailer in the world & was the best performing Dow stock last year with a nice gain. But this year it's giving back most of last year's gains, bringing it down towards its start in 2008. WMT has lowered its profit forecast for its fiscal year just ended, that's not going over well. They have a new CEO who is taking over & will be earning his pay in these tough times. The stock dropped .88 to 46.98.

CEO brings merchandising to Wal-Mart leadership


Wal-Mart --- YTD





There are an unusually large number of unknowns in the business world. When the strongest & safest in the Dow have to work extra hard to achieve goals & then have to lower the goals, it's a bad signal for many other companies which are not as well off. This reinforces the idea that 2009 will be a very tough year.

Dow slipped from 8776 at the start of the year to close at 8001, down 9% in Jan. Those who believe that performance in the first week & first month sends signals for the year are dreading the next 11 months.


Dow Jones Industrials --- YTD

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