Thursday, January 29, 2009

Lower new home sales & higher jobless claims

Stocks sold off on more dreary economic & corp news. Dow is down 90 (but 50 above its low), decliners over advancers 3-1 & NAZ dropped 26.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX is giving up gains from yesterday's strong rally.

Value
133.75
Change
-5.02
% Change
-3.6%


Averages I follow are lower in sympathy with the major market averages. However, the VIX is up 2½ to 42 on increased worries. The Alerian MLP Index slipped 1½ to 203, profit taking after its recent run-up.

Oil keeps slipping on economic worries. This contract is headed for sub 40 like the prior one:

CLH09.NYM...Crude Oil Mar 09...40.96...Down 1.20
.......(2.85%)



The number filing for unemployment claims last week went up 3K to 588K. The 4 week moving average, a less volatile number, increased to 542K from 518K in the prior week. 4.8M are receiving unemployment checks. The job market is considered lousy because these numbers are expected to climb substantially higher! As a reminder, 400K had been considered a worrisome high number, now 550K has become routine.


Jobless-Benefit Rolls in U.S. Surge to Record High; Initial Claims Climb

Sales of new homes in Dec dropped to the lowest level since record keeping began in 1963. In 2008, builders sold 482,000 homes, the lowest since 1982.

U.S. New-Home Sales Decline to Lowest Level on Record Amid Credit Freeze


3M (MMM), Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, reported lower sales & profits for Q4. They also reduced the guidance for 2009 EPS to 4.30 - 4.70, down 20¢ from the previous estimate. Markets liked what they heard, up 1.64 in a down market.

3M cuts outlook as quarterly profit falls 37%


Kodak (EK), another Dow stock, reported a loss in Q4 & will lay-off 4½K. EK slipped 1.48, now it has a 5 handle. 4 Dow stocks; Alcoa, Bank of America, Cititgroup & Kodak; are under 10 (that used to be the sign of a speculative stock).


A stimulus package was passed in the house last night but faces a tougher test in the senate. All Reps along with 11 Dems voted against it. Tax cuts are just one of the key sticking points. Delay hurts markets.

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