Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Initial market rally fades fast

Buyers were encouraged that the world didn't come to an end, so they returned. The Dow started with a 100 point gain but that has evaporated, now it's down 11, advancers 3-2 ahead of decliners & NAZ is up 8. Banks, in particular, found buyers but that enthusiasm withered.

The S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX rebounded a little after the drubbing it's been taking. However, it remains well below the 125 low set on Nov 20. Banks look to have more head winds in front of them:

Value
110.64
Change
2.16
% Change
2.0%


US Bancorp (USB) saw its profits take a beating. Even though they have avoided the ugliest write-downs that other large banks have taken, they were still hurt. EPS fell in Q4 to 15¢ from 53¢ in the prior year, stock down 2.69. They are an S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrat that will have to struggle this year to keep its status in the group, but I think they will. Even though their chart is dreary, this is one of the best for any bank.


US Bancorp --- 10 years




Other yield securities have bounced back a little from yesterday's lows. The Alerian MLP Index got up to 191, but has settled back to 189. 190 may become a difficult ceiling to break thru. As with the major averages early gains are being trimmed while I write. Meanwhile the VIX is down 5 to the 51s.

Mar oil is in the 41s, above the 38s that the Feb contract closed out at yesterday.


CLH09.NYM...Crude Oil Mar 09....41.65 ...Up 0.81
.......(2.0%)



Toyota (TM) became the largest auto company in the world in 2008 because their sales fell only 4% to about 9M cars while General Motors (GM) was hurt more badly by the global slowdown in auto sales. TM is still getting pinched hard. They are cutting back the workforce in Japan, a very touchy subject for them.

Toyota Passes General Motors as Biggest Automaker Amid Global Sales Slump


Obama's team is coming up with a stimulus package which will have to be combined with the $825B package congress is proposing.

Obama Team Readies Bank-Rescue Plan to Bolster Capital, Cull Toxic Assets


Markets continue playing defense.

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