Thursday, April 23, 2009

Markets keep drifting

Indecision & confusion are keeping the lid on stock advances. Dow was off 50, advancers & decliners are even & NAZ dropped 13. Dreary earnings & uncertainty about bank stress tests are tough for bulls to overcome. Banks started out higher but are slipping back.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
138.80
Change
1.29
% Change
0.9%


Alerian MLP Index, up 1, has been sitting on the 200 floor all month as they are caught up in the sideways trading pattern of the markets. REITs have also been trading sideways but in a very choppy pattern. Junk bond funds have been edging up while the VIX has been bouncing around the high 30s.

Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 2 weeks




Oil is trying to get back over 50.

CLM09.NYM...Crude Oil Jun 09...49.47 ...Up 0.62
.......(1.3%)



Claims for unemployment last week increased to 640K, up from a revised 613K in the prior week. Analysts' expectations were for a number of 635K. Job losses remain high, the four-week average of claims dropped slightly to 647K, 12K below the peak in early April. The number of workers continuing to claim benefits rose to 6.1M, setting a record for the 12th straight week. Another measure, as a proportion of the work force, the total jobless benefit rolls are the highest since Jan 1983. Many laid-off workers are having difficulty finding new jobs.

Sales of homes sank by an unexpectedly large amount in Mar, dashing hopes of a spring housing recovery. Home sales dropped 3% to an annual rate of 4.6M in Mar from a downwardly revised pace of 4.7M in Feb. The median sales price plunged to $175K, down 12.4% from $200K a year earlier, but up from $168K in Feb. The 4% monthly increase was larger than expected. These numbers signal the housing market will be depressed for the balance of the year.

Existing Home Sales in U.S. Fall More Than Estimated to 4.57 Million Rate


United Parcel Service (UPS) reported dismal numbers for Q1, stock down 3. EPS plunged 55% to 13¢ on 13% lower revenue. Even adjusted EPS was 52¢, 4¢ below analyst expectations. UPS said economic indicators suggest recovery in the U.S. might begin late this year, but more likely not until 2010. UPS cut 10,000 domestic jobs in Q1. They're results are significant because they, along with FedEx, feel the pulse of economies (US & also worldwide).
United Parcel Service --- YTD




Markets are waiting for bank stress test results. Tomorrow we will be told how they are being graded. Banks should be given a grade of A, C or F (my metaphor). Lower grades will mean the banks have more work to clean up their balance sheets. Banks' results might be released next week. With banks leading markets, more sideways trading can be expected.

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