Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Quarter begins undecided

Dow started the qtr up 36, advancers slightly ahead of decliners & NAZ gained only 4. Stocks are coming off the worst Q1 in 70 years, they need cheering up.


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX started the new qtr on the right foot:

Value
122.25
Change
3.24
% Change
2.7%


MLPs are up 1 but REITs are flat & junk bond funds are down. Oil is weak on increased worries about the global recession reducing demand for oil.

CLK09.NYM...Crude Oil May 09...48.21 ...Down 1.45
.......(2.9%)


Below is probably the prettiest chart for Q1, belonging to the Alerian MLP Index. The index rose, even after the very big 12 point advance on the first trading day. Now it will have to deal with earnings & distribution announcements coming later in the month.


Alerian MLP Index --- Q1, 2009





More glum economic news keeps coming. Construction & manufacturing continue very weak while housing sales are in the dumps. The weekly jobs report is coming & it's expected to bring more gloomy unemployment numbers.


The president is signaling that it may be over for General Motors (GM) & maybe Chrysler. GM has 60 days to justify its existence. Given dreary auto sales, it's difficult to see how they can accomplish very much with auto sales running around 8M annualized. Chrysler is trying to link up with Fiat, we'll see.


Obama Said to Conclude Bankruptcy Is Most Likely Option for GM, Chrysler


The G-20 meeting will not accomplish much & is proving to be almost embarrassing for many there. France & Germany want a crackdown on tax haven countries (like Switzerland). More regulation on many fronts brings out differences among member countries. Given all the discord, it's hard to see meaningful comments, let alone actions, coming from the meeting.

Brown, Obama Urge G-20 Unity to Combat Economic Crisis, Play Down Discord



Markets are starting out the qtr on a positive note, but could have tough sailing this month. The looming auto bankruptcy probably will be hanging over the markets for the next 2 months. Bank earnings will be vital & they are not anticipated to be good. Meanwhile more ugly macro economic reports won't stop coming.

No comments: