Monday, April 6, 2009

Profit taking day

Stocks pulled back after one their best runs. Dow dropped 124, decliners over advancers better than 3-1 & NAZ fell 36. Banks, had been leading the charge up, sold off. But the S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX wasn't hurt badly:

Value
127.76
Change
-3.19
% Change
-2.4%


MLPs & RETs fell back, nothing major, along with the markets. Oil is falling, probably in sympathy with the stock markets:

CLK09.NYM...Crude Oil May 09...50.66 ...Down 1.85
.......(3.5%)



Ford (F) was able to slash $10B in debt by exchanging it for stock & bonds. This will save Ford $½B annually in interest costs. The stock jumped 15%, another way to look at it is the low priced stock is up 45¢. It's good to see one of the big 3 can make things happen when their survival is at stake. The stock chart shows a glimmer of hope for the stock

Ford Slashes Debt by $9.9 Billion Through Bond, Loan Buybacks; Shares Jump


Ford ---- 1 year




There is a forecast that defaults on high yield (junk) bond debt will exceed 50%, worse than even in the depression. So far, junk bond funds haven't really been touched by defaults, but the future is scary. At least companies & banks have warnings. Many will prepare for an ugly period & hopefully will be able to muddle by. Already, I am encouraged that REITs are talking about preparations, arranging financing to ride out the shock wave when it hits. If this gloomy junk bond forecast proves out, that will be devastating for not only bonds but also the stock market.

High-Yield Corporate Default Rate to Reach 53% Over Five Years, Reid Says


The biggest news story was that Sun (JAVA) will not be acquired by IBM (IBM). As expected, Sun dropped 2 to 6½. Big buyouts are bullish for the markets. When one of the biggest of the year collapses, all stocks are hurt.

Sun Microsystems Drops as Talks to Be Bought by IBM Said to Have Collapsed


Stocks markets are coming off one of the best 4 week winning streaks in history. But Dow may have met the immovable object, the 8K ceiling.


Dow Jones Industrials --- 1 month

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