Monday, April 27, 2009

Swine flu & auto worries drag markets down

Dow stayed above 8000, but just barely. It couldn't break away from the break even line. Dow fell 51, decliners over advancers 2-1 & NAZ slipped 14. Banks have been leading the 2 month rally & continue to lead, only to the downside. Big name banks dropped 2-5% today.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
142.53
Change
-4.68
% Change
-3.2%


In the high yield sector, MLPs have risen far above the rest. The Index shot up 3.23 to 209.82, a YTD high & nearing the 6 month highs. REITs have also bounced back but still have a lot more ground to cover before reaching recent high territory especially after dropping 9 today. The high yield index chart looks better, although down .15 today (with a 17% yield).


Alerian MLP Index --- 6 months




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 6 months




Barclays Cap Hi Yld Bond ETF - 6 months





Swine flu has the potential of disrupting a fragile worldwide economic economy & its recovery. Export restrictions are being put into effect & that could put a major dent in global trade. The trade between the US & Mexico is large, above the drugs & guns business. Right now there is a lot of talk about contingencies, but shock waves are scaring investors. Oil was down on fears of slowing intl trade.

CLM09.NYMCrude Oil Jun 09..50.16 ..Down 1.39
......(2.7%)


Filene’s Basement may seek bankruptcy protection this week. This would be its 2nd Chapter 11, the first was in 1999. This retail failure will hurt mall & shopping center owners (REITs). There is a conference going on in LA discussing commercial real estate. Participants include top businessmen in the field. They said that REITs are getting thru the financial crisis fairly well (even after the Chapter 11 filing by Gen Growth). Lenders feel more comfortable about the property & building assets backing loans compared with factories & offices which may have dubious value in troubled times.

Filene's Basement Retail Chain Said to Ready Second U.S. Bankruptcy Filing


Swine flu problems & GM-Chrysler worries are plenty for the markets to digest. Once again, the Dow failed to significantly break above 8K.

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