Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Markets surge, nearing 2009 highs

Dow soared again today, up 167 nearing its 9830 close just 2 weeks ago. Advancers are 6-1 ahead of decliners & NAZ shot up 40. Banks are leading the way as the Financial Index is up an impressive 9 this week.


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
203.04
Change
4.47
% Change
2.3%


As stocks recover lost territory of the last 2 weeks, high yield sectors are hot again. The Alerian MLP Index is up 3 to the 252s, aiming for a new 2009 high. REITs are strong, the Dow Jones REIT Index is up 3 & almost 10 from the lows 2 days ago. Junk bond funds are also higher. Given the rallies in all the markets, Treasuries sold off. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond slipped 3 basis points to 3.25% but it remains near its recent interim low yield below 3.20%.


Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks



Dow Jones REIT Index --- 2 weeks





Higher stocks bring higher commodity prices. Huh? Oh well, oil passed 71 but is still in its sideways trading pattern since May. But gold is another story. While stocks have been soaring this year on inflation fears, gold shot up from the mid 800s to well over 1K (another record). Investors are scrambling to buy stocks & risk averse gold, that's not supposed to happen at the same time!

CLX09.NYM...Crude Oil Nov 09...71.67 ...Up 1.26
.......(1.8%)

GCV09.CMX...Gold Oct 09...1,035.80 ...Up 19.10
.......(1.9%)


GLD (ETF) --- 6 months






The House wants new regulations for a financial overhaul, hearings begin today. The administration proposed legislation to protect investors by bolstering the authority of the SEC (you know the guys who were watching Bernie Madoff), putting stockbrokers & investment advisers under the same standards of conduct and strengthening rules governing the timing & quality of disclosures by investment funds. In addition they proposed putting private pools of capital -- hedge funds, private equity & venture capital funds -- under gov supervision by requiring they register with the SEC. This would open their books & they would be subject to disclosure requirements. Expect a lot of bloviating from congress. Somehow they say this won't interfere with passing a massive health care plan.


Boeing (BA), Dow stock, will take a charge of $1B (90¢ per share) in Q3 from higher costs in its 747-8 freighter program & general market conditions. Last year BA delayed deliveries of the 747-8 freighter & passenger jets due to design changes, limited engineering resources & had a strike that shut down the its commercial jet factories for 8 weeks. The stock is down 1 to the 51s & has had only a limited recovery since early 2009.

Boeing --- 2 years





US markets followed the lead of higher markets around the globe. Australia's central bank (Royal Bank of Australia) raised interest rates (from a 29 year low) 25 basis points to 3¼% & signaled there may be more rate hikes coming. Bulls viewed this a sign of economic strength which increased their expectations for worldwide earnings reports in the next few weeks. With today's rally, Dow has recovered most of the losses in the last 2 weeks.

Australia cash interest rate - 1 year





Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 weeks

No comments: