Friday, October 30, 2009

Markets retreat on consumer confidence data

Yesterday's rally is history as the Dow fell 131 (giving back most of yesterday's gains), decliners over advancers 3-1 & NAZ was off 26. Banks led the way down, the Financial Index is having a bad day taking it to the low end of its 2 month range (190-210):

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
192.61
Change
-5.86
% Change
-3.0%


In this market, the Alerian MLP Index is down only pennies in the 258s while the Dow Jones REIT Index slipped 1. Junk bond funds were mixed to higher. But the VIX, volatility index, was up .87 to 25.63. Treasuries rallied. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond dropped 6 basis points to 3.44%.

Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 2 weeks





Oil fell along with stocks, but it's hanging in there above the 65-75 range where its traded in recent months. Gold is down but remains near its recent record highs. If you are interested in learning more about gold, I've attached buttons below to to provide help from Ino.com:

CLZ09.NYM...Crude Oil Dec 09...78.53 ...Down 1.34
.......(1.7%)


GCX09.CMX...Gold Nov 09...1,040.10 ...Down 6.30
.......(0.6%)









Futures Prices Click Here


Consumer sentiment slipped in Oct, Americans fretted about personal finances & focused on paying down debt. The Michigan Survey of Consumers said its index of sentiment for Oct slipped to 70.6 from 73.5 last month (the chart below does not show Oct reading). However, sentiment remained well above where it was a year ago. While recovery expectations have improved over the last year, "consumers continued to voice very dismal assessments of their personal financial situation," according to the report. The majority of consumers said their finances had worsened in Oct for the 13th straight month, "the longest & deepest decline in the 60-year history of the surveys."

U.S. Consumer Confidence Declines With Unemployment Rate at 26-Year High

Consumer sentiment - 12 months





Chevron (CVX), Dow stock & the nation's second-largest oil & gas producer, boosted revenues by increasing oil production 11% in Q3. But its average sale price for crude & natural gas liquids in Q3 was 62 per barrel. While above Q2, it was still well below 103 in last year's Q3. Profits dropped 51% to 1.92 per share from last year (the best one for oil companies when oil soared above 147). The stock dropped 1 to 77 after trading sideways for the last year.

Chevron Profit Decline Is Smaller Than Analysts Estimated as Output Rises

Chevron --- 1 year


Yesterday's rally did not have legs. Earnings season is winding down, it clearly was not exciting for the markets. Dow is up 200 in Oct, but that all came in the first few days. It looks like stocks are back on defense.

Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 weeks

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