Markets mixed on lower consumer confidence

Dow was up 46 on the strength of Chevron (CVX), Exxon (XOM) & IBM (IBM). Decliners were modestly ahead of advancers & NAZ was off 10. Banks inched their way up.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value 198.28

Change 0.33

% Change 0.2%

MLPs are off today, but something is peculiar about the 271 starting point for the Alerian MLP Index, the close yesterday was in the 261s. The spike up on the opening is shown in the Yahoo finance badge on the right & the graph below from BigCharts. My guess is Alerian did not adjust for taking out TEPPCO which disappeared after the merger with Enterprises Products (EPD) yesterday. The big picture is that MLPs are off modestly today as are REITs. Junk bond funds were little changed despite Bill Gross's comments (below). Treasuries were strong, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond fell 3 basis points to 3.52%.

Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 2 weeks




Oil has backed off from the 80s into the high 70s & gold is flat after yesterday's big drop.

CLZ09.NYM

...Crude Oil Dec 09

...78.95

... 0.27 .......(0.3%)

GCV09.CMX

..Gold Oct 09

...1,042.10

...0.00 .......(0.0%)

The Consumer Confidence Index, sank unexpectedly to 47.7 in Oct taking it to its second-lowest recording since May, the forecast was for 53.1. As a frame of reference, a reading above 90 means the U.S. economy is on solid footing & above 100 signals strong growth. The index has vacillated since reaching a historic low of 25.3 in Feb & then climbed to 53.4 in Sep. Shoppers have a grim outlook for the future & are expecting a worsening business climate, fewer jobs & lower salaries according to the Conference Board. This is particularly bad news for retailers who depend on the holiday shopping season for a large share of their annual revenues & profits. Holiday sales are expected to be flat at best from a year ago (which saw the biggest declines since at least 1967 when data was first collected).

•Consumer Confidence in U.S. Unexpectedly Fell in October on Job Concerns

Consumer Confidence - 12 months





FED Interest rate -- 12 months






Bill Gross, a founder & co-chief investment officer of PIMCO the world’s biggest manager of bond funds, said the six-month rally in riskier assets is likely at its pinnacle, with U.S. economic growth to lag behind historical averages.

•Pimco's Gross Says Six-Month Rally in Appetite for Risk Assets at Pinnacle


US Steel (X) lost money for a 3rd straight quarter as the global economic downturn continued to dampen demand for the metal. However, the company said its production & shipments rose significantly from the previous quarter, & it expects a narrower loss in the Q4 as North American automakers order more steel for vehicles. CEO John Surma said the company remains cautious about its outlook as order rates have dropped in recent weeks, partly due to seasonal slowdowns at factories. US steel maker lost $2.11 per share in Q3 compared with a profit of $7.79 per share last year. Revenue tumbled 61% to $2.8B. The stock dropped 2.35 to 38.23.

US Steel Reports Third Quarterly Net Loss on Lower Revenue

US Steel --- 1 year




Stocks are floundering around. Earnings season has stalled the Dow's advance at 10K.

Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 weeks