Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Stocks & gold rise together

Dow rose at the start & stayed sharply higher for the rest of the day. Dow closed up 131 taking it within 100 of its high this year, advancers were over decliners 3-1 (down from the 6-1 ratio in the AM) & NAZ gained 35. Banks were strong although they lost some steam in the PM. The Financial Index touched 203 but fell back 2 for a more modest gain.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
201.02
Change
2.45
% Change
1.2%






The high yield sectors gave up some of their gains in the PM. MLPs remained strong, the index gained 3 to its 2009 high in the 252s. MLPs were helped by the announcement from BreitBurn (BBEP) that their borrowing base was "reaffirmed." Translated, it means bankers were happy that they were able to pay down $150M of their loans. Skipping the distribution helped them conserve money & the implication is that a distribution may return fairly soon. BBEP more than doubled from its lows in early 2009, today up 88¢ to 12.64. The Dow Jones REIT Index was essentially even, giving up AM gains. Junk bond funds were mixed near their yearly high levels. Treasury bonds slipped, the yield on the 10 year Treasury bond went up 2+ basis points to 3.25%.



BreitBurn EnergyPartners -- YTD





Alerian MLP Index --- 3 months




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 3 months





Sellers came on in the PM to reduce gains for oil but gold continued strong at its record levels. Oil was helped by a weak dollar. It takes fewer than 89 ¥ to buy a dollar and the € is over $1.47. The weak dollar will also be a factor in earnings, generally helping companies with a large portion of business outside the US. Gold reached $1045 on worries about the direction of inflation in the future.

CLX09.NYM..Crude Oil Nov 09..70.98 ..0.57
......(0.8%)


GCV09.CMX..Gold Oct 09..1,036.20 ..Up 19.50
......(1.9%)


Stocks have had 2 nice days of gains ahead of the start of earnings season. I keep thinking they may be setting up for buy on the rumor & sell on the news (i.e. next week). Major disconnects continue, stocks & commodities (i.e. gold) rise together & bonds (quality & junk bonds) go up at the same time.

Dow Jones Industrials --- 3 months

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