Thursday, September 30, 2010

Markets little changed on end of quarter trading

Stocks jumped on what was viewed as a favorable jobless claims report, but demand is ebbing. Dow is down 18, advancers ahead of decliners 4-3 & NAZ fell 11. Bank stocks are off their earlier highs. While up, the Financial Index is 3 below its high.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value	193.89
Change	0.51 (0.3%)

The MLP index was up a fraction in the 336s, good enough for a new 2010 high while the REIT index was up 1 to 211. Junk bond funds are mixed as they have been all week. The € rose a little to $1.36½ on the weaker dollar. Treasuries dropped on economic recovery signs making it less likely the Federal Reserve will buy Treasuries. The yield on the 10 year Treasury bond was up 3 basis points to 2.54%, not that serious of a sell off by Treasuries.

Treasury yields

U.S. 3-month		0.16%
U.S. 2-year		0.44%
U.S. 10-year		2.54%

Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks

Dow Jones REIT Index --- 2 weeks

10Year Treasury Yield Index --- 2 weeks

Oil rose on the favorable outlook for the economy & gold is digesting its record run into the 1300s.

CLX10.NYM

...Crude Oil Nov 10

...79.26 1

...

1.40

(1.8%)

GCV10.CMX

...Gold Oct 10

...1,305.50

...

3.00 (0.2%)

Gold Super Cycle Link!! Click Here

Jobless Claims in U.S. Decreased 16,000 to 453,000 Last Week

Photo: Bloomberg

Initial jobless claims decreased 16K to 453K last week, lower than forecasted. Claims were projected to fall to 460K. The total number receiving unemployment insurance & those getting extended payments also dropped 83K to 4.46M. However, enough jobs aren’t being added to reduce the unemployment rate. The graphs below show that this data remains dreary!

Jobless Claims in U.S. Decreased 16,000 to 453,000 Last Week

Weekly jobless claims - 1 year

One-Year Chart for Claims (INJCJC:IND)

# continuing to receive benefits - 1 year

One-Year Chart for Unemployment SA (INJCSP:IND)

The U.S. economy grew at a 1.7% annual rate in Q2, marking the slowdown in growth that has concerned the Federal Reserve. The revised increase in GDP compares with a 1.6% estimate last month, a 3.7% in Q1 & 5% at the end of 2009. More mixed news about the economy & its recovery.

U.S. Economy Grew 1.7% in Second Quarter as Recovery Slowed

Markets gave up early gains quickly, but that could also influenced by end of the qtr selling. It looks like AIG (AIG) will be paying back the gov, another good sign which will have little impact on the $1+ trillion deficit, showing how the financial markets have improved in the last 2 years. Dow continues to lumber along staying close to 10.8K. It's not getting that excuse to carry on to higher levels which are important technically.

Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 weeks