Friday, September 24, 2010

Markets gain for a 4th straight week

Stocks were higher at the start & never looked back, closing near their highs, after hearing what sounded like good economic news on manufacturing.  Dow rose 197, advancers over decliners 5-1 &; NAZ gained 54. Bank (& tech) stocks led the way as the Financial Index will make another attempt to top 200 next week.


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value196.72One-Year Chart for S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX (S5FINL:IND)
Change   5.29   (2.8%)


The MLP Index was up 1½ to the 332s & is doing well in the last month when the stock market has been rising.  The REIT index recovered 6 in the 213s & is also having a very good month.  However, junk bond funds were only mixed to higher (at or near yearly highs).  The VIX dropped 2 to the 21s, its lows since early May.  The € benefited from the weaker dollar, rising almost 2 pennies to near $1.35.  Treasuries were lower.  The yield on the 10 year Treasury rose 6 basis points to 2.61%, but at very low & worrisome levels


Treasury Yields


U.S. 3-month
0.14%
U.S. 2-year
0.44%
U.S. 10-year
2.61%



Alerian MLP Index --  YTD





Dow Jones REIT Index --  YTD





VIX --  YTD





10-Year Treasury Yld Index --  YTD





Oil rose the most in 2 weeks as the dollar dropped against the €, bolstering the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment.  Gold wasn't able to hold the record 1300, but the bulls will be pushing hard next week to blast thru it.


CLX10.NYM...Crude Oil Nov 10...76.51 ...Up 1.33  (1.8%)
GCU10.CMX...Gold Sep 10...1,295.40 ...Up 1.10 (0.1%)

$$ Gold Super Cycle $$  

52 Week High Friday Rule!  



KB Home (KBH) narrowed its fiscal Q3 loss, as the it booked fewer write-downs & higher average selling prices.  But the important backlog dropped, & net orders fell 39% from slower demand. CEO Jeffrey Mezger said orders in Jun, traditionally one of the best-selling months, fell by half versus the same month last year. While orders gradually improved as the summer unfolded, they remained well below prior-year levels.  "While we have seen improvement in our net orders over the past few months, sales remain soft and the weak economy continues to be a major impediment to any housing recovery," Mezger said.  KBH lost 2¢ a share, in the qtr ended Aug 31, which compares with 87¢ last year.  Revenue rose 9% to $501M, the first year-over-year increase in almost 4 years,  This performance beat expectations of a 15¢ per share loss on revenue of $478M.  The stock gained 43¢ (4%).



KB Home   ---   2 years






Dow began Sep at 10014.  Today it's up 8%, not a bad performance in bearish Sep (Sep is traditionally the worst month of the year).  We're near of the end of the qtr which can bring unusual moves, but so far these are in the direction of more buying.  Dow is above its high in early May, its next goal is the 11.2K yearly high. Among other things, next week Congress will take up imposing tariffs on imports from China.  It sounds good to many, but this a complicated topic & will not solve fundamental problems.


Dow Jones Industrials --  YTD






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