Friday, September 17, 2010

Markets struggle to work their way higher

Stocks stayed close to break even all day. Dow ended up 13, advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ gained 12. Bank stocks as market leaders pulled back. The Financial Index started the month at 190. After a nice gain, it stumbled this week.


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX


Value196.53One-Year Chart for S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX (S5FINL:IND)
Change-1.03 (-0.5%)





The MLP index inched up a fraction at 329 & has been trading sideways for about 2 months (shown in the graph) while the REIT index was up a fraction today in the 213s. Junk bond funds were mixed to lower & the VIX was little changed in the 21s. The € slipped to under $1.30½. The yield on the 10 year Treasury bond rose 1 basis point to 3.74%. The yield on the 2 year Treasury note fell to within spitting distance of its record low, just above 0.45%.


Treasury Securities


U.S. 3-month
0.15%
U.S. 2-year
0.46%
U.S. 10-year
2.74%



Alerian MLP Index --- YTD




Dow Jones REIT Index --- YTD




VIX --- YTD




10 Year Treasury Yld Index --- YTD





Oil fell as the Enbridge Energy (EEP) pipeline came back on line. Gold reached 1282+ before settling back & has had a nice run in the last month.


CLV10.NYM..Crude Oil Oct 10..73.65 ..Down 0.92
......(1.2%)


GCU10.CMX..Gold Sep 10..1,275.60 ..Up 3.70
......(0.3%)




$$ Gold Super Cycle $$
Click Here


GLD (ETD) --- 1 month





While Congress is fiddling, taxpayers are fuming. Unless Congress votes by Nov to extend tax cuts, the IRS will advise employers to increase deductions from paychecks beginning Jan 1 because the IRS needs time to prepare & distribute tables used to calculate withholding taxes. Most politicos in DC are in agreement about extending current tax measures for the lower 98% or so, but they are haggling about how to treat the wealthy taxpayers. This can be a significant worry for the stock markets.

Paychecks Could Be Whacked If U.S. Tax Vote Slips



Concerns about Irish sovereign debt crisis were a drag in the markets on a day when there was not a lot else to focus on. Stocks & gold have been strong in Sep, a significant disconnect that can not last. Maybe next week will give more guidance about where the markets want to go.

Dow Jones Industrials --- YTD








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