Monday, September 20, 2010

The September rally continues

Stocks jumped out of the gate & continue strong. Dow is up 105 to a new post May high, advancers ahead of decliners almost 5-1 & NAZ gained 25. As usual with market moves, bank stocks were leaders. The Financial Index still has 200 has its goal (which it has been not above since early Aug).


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value 198.87 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX (S5FINL:IND)
Change 2.34 (1.2%)



The Alerian MLP Index rose 1.79 to over 330, its highest level in almost 2 months. The REIT index was up almost 4 to the 217s, only 2 below its yearly high. When stocks rise, junk bond funds are not far behind, remaining near yearly highs. The VIX was down only a fraction, still in the 21s. The € was up a fraction of a penny to almost $1.31. Treasuries slipped in the strong stock market. The yield on the 10 year Treasury bond rose 2 basis points to 2.75% nearing its 2.80%+ yearly high.


Treasury Securities


U.S. 3-month
0.15%
U.S. 2-year
0.46%
U.S. 10-year
2.75%


Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 2 weeks




VIX --- 2 weeks




10-Year Treasury Yld Index --- 2 weeks




Rising stock markets bring out bullish sentiment for oil. Gold rose to a record for a 3rd day as a weaker dollar & concern that the recovery may be faltering boosted demand as a protection of wealth.

CLV10.NYM...Crude Oil Oct 10...74.69 ...Up 1.03
.......(1.4%)

GCU10.CMX...Gold Sep 10...1,282.00 ...Up 6.40
.......(0.5%)


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Lennar (LEN), 4th largest US homebuilder, reported a better-than-estimated Q3 profit as margins on house sales improved & orders fell less than projected. EPS for the qtr ended Aug 31 was 16¢ compared with a loss of 97¢ last year earlier, beating estimates of 3¢. LEN has been cutting costs & expanding its distressed investing operations as demand for houses slumps after expiration of a tax credit for homebuyers. Orders fell 15% in Q3, a smaller decline than estimated. Q3 revenue increased 14% to $825M as home completions rose 10% to 2,950. But orders fell to 2,624 homes from 3,104 last year. The Rialto Investments unit, which focuses on managing & restructuring distressed real estate, contributed $7.7M in operating profit during the period. Rialto’s role expanded after Feb, when LEN bought a 40% stake in a $3B portfolio of loans auctioned by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. This showing gets a "good enough" rating. The stock gained 89¢ to 14.88.

Lennar Reports Third-Quarter Profit as Margins Widen


Lennar --- 2 years





However housing remains mired in the dumps. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo confidence index remained unchanged at 13, matching the lowest reading since Mar 2009. Projections were for a rise to 14. The housing market continues depressed following the expiration of a tax credit on Apr 30


Homebuilders confidence index - 1 year

One-Year Chart for Market (USHBMIDX:IND)


IBM to Buy Netezza for $1.7 Billion to Gain Analytics

Photo: Bloomberg


IBM (IBM), a Dow stock, will buy Netezza (NZ) for about $1.7B to gain analytics technology. NZ shareholders will receive $27 a share in cash, but the stock is 57¢ above that price hoping for an even better offer. NZ integrates hardware with programs that store & analyze data. The acquisition is set to close by Dec 31.

IBM Plans to Acquire Netezza for $1.7 Billion to Gain Analytics Technology


Netezza --- 1 year




IBM --- 2 years





We're back to all news is good news, what the bulls like to hear. The € was strong on word that European sovereign debt problems are fading (for the time being). Problems still exist with the slow economic recovery & a muddled picture about extending personal tax cuts into next year.


Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 weeks








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