Friday, October 22, 2010

Markets drift on currency concerns

International issues are growing in importance for the stock markets.  Today they were little changed on very slow trading.


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value 196.61 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX (S5FINL:IND)
Change   0.14 (0.1%)



The high yield sectors hardly budged today.


Treasury yields


U.S. 3-month
0.12%
U.S. 2-year
0.35%
U.S. 10-year
2.56%



Alerian MLP Index   ---   YTD



Dow Jones REIT Index   ---   YTD



10-Year Treasury Yield Index   ---   YTD




Oil rose on speculation that growing French demand for imported fuel because of a strike will reduce stockpiles elsewhere & on concern that a tropical storm may strengthen as it heads toward Mexican oil fields.  Gold fell, capping the biggest weekly slide since early Jul, as the dollar rebounded, eroding demand.  It's fallen 50 from its record highs, but bulls still love it for the long term.

CLZ10.NYM...Crude Oil Dec 10...81.70.. ...Up 1.14  (1.4%)

GCV10.CMX...Gold Oct 10......1,325.80 ....Up 1.10  (0.1%)

$$$Gold Super Cycle$$$  

GLD   (ETF)   ---   YTD






The falling dollar's strong grip on financial markets has inflated market expectations for the G20 meeting this wekend in South Korea, which is already showing signs of ending with little more than a few loose promises.  Tim Geithner, Sec of Treasury, proposed in a letter to G20 finance ministers that countries should adopt policies to reduce their current account imbalances below a specified share of national output, but other ministers oppose the idea, including those from Germany and Japan.  This proposal is widely expected to be turned down.  The ministers representing 20 developed & developing economies also will not resolve the biggest issue-the dispute between the US. & China on China's unwillingness to let its currency appreciate.  The group is also expected to tackle banking reform, but the drama in currency markets has overshadowed most everything else.The US effort to fight slow growth with more Fed easing is at the heart of the disharmony. The falling dollar has exacerbated the divide between the world's developed and developing nations, driving new capital into emerging economies & pushing their currencies higher. Brazil, for one, has attempted to stem the real's rise by taxing foreign investment.  Stock markets could respond to to the outcome of this meeting next week.

Currency Wars Show No Signs of Ending Anytime Soon- CNBC



Apple (AAPL) had excellent earnings & big new product announcements but the stock has not responded well this week, although it's still close to the record high reached on Mon.  This may be a case of buy on the rumor & sell on other news. 


Apple   ---   1 week





This was another non event day, but the meetings in South Korea could have a major effect on stock markets next week.  The chart below shows that Dow is just below its 11.2K yearly high.  Next week, the bulls will show if they are serious about taking it to new highs.  Sorry about the shorter post, but Blogger, my host, lost some material.

Dow Jones Industrials   ---   YTD







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