Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Stock markets are flying high

Aitlines reported good earnings & stocks took their cue, they are soaring.   Dow was up 129, advancers ahead of decliners better than 3-1 & NAZ gained 20. However, the averages finished below their highs of the day.  Banks did well but nothing special as the Financial Index is struggling to top 200 as it has for the last 6 months. 


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value196.84One-Year Chart for S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX (S5FINL:IND)
Change  2.18  (1.1%)



The MLP index rebounded, up 2 to almost 350, & recovered much of yesterday's decline.  The REIT exploded, up 5 to the 224s, yet another 2010 high.  Its record was over 300 three years ago before many dividends were cut.  Junk bond funds participated in today's gains.  Treasury yields were little changed, the yield on the 10 year Treasury was only a fraction of a basis point lower to 2.47%


Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month
0.13%
U.S. 2-year
0.34%
U.S. 10-year
2.47%



Alerian MLP Index   ---   YTD




Dow Jones REIT Index   ---   YTD




10-Year Treasury Yield Index   ---   YTD




Oil had another excellent day bringing it back over the important 80 resistance level & gold was able to recover some of yesterday's big loss.

CLX10.NYM...Crude Oil Nov 10...81.77 ...Up 2.28 (2.9%)
GCV10.CMX...Gold Oct 10......1,344.60....Up 9.50  (0.7%)

++ Gold Super Cycle ++ 




The Beige Book regional survey from the Federal Reserve (FED) said the US economy expanded at a “modest pace” in Sep & early Oct with little sign of accelerating.  Treasuries were higher on speculation the FED will increase quantitative easing.  8 FED banks, including San Francisco & Chicago, reported some form of growth, according to the Beige Book survey of the 12 regional banks,  This report is released 2 weeks before each meeting of central bank policy makers.

Treasuries Remain Higher as Fed Beige Book Shows `Modest Pace' in Recovery




Apple (AAPL) unveiled new MacBook Air ultralight laptops & offered a few glimpses of its new Mac operating system software.  AAPL CEO Steve Jobs introduced 2 new MacBook Air models, saying, "We asked ourselves: What would happen if a MacBook & an iPad hooked up?"  One of the new laptops has a screen that's 13.3" diagonally, the 2nd has an 11.6" screen.  The larger MacBook Air is 0.68 inches at its thickest point & weighs 2.9 lbs with a battery life of 7 hours. The smaller one weighs 2.2 lbs & is rated to last 5 hours. The basic smaller one costs $999 & the larger one will cost $1,599 with 256gb.  As an aside, my netbook book with Windows XP does a little less, weighs 2.19lbs & cost only a small fraction of those prices.  AAPL also announced a new version of its operating system, called Mac OS X Lion, that will include a store for Mac software. It's similar to the iTunes store that sells apps for iPhone, iPod Touch & iPad.  Lion is expected during summer 2011, its price was not disclosed.  With all this excitement, the stock rose only 1 to the 211s & finished 4 below its high as selling came in after the product announcements at midday.

Apple Introduces New Macintosh Software at Event


Apple   ---   YTD






Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan repeated the White House’s opposition to a national foreclosure moratorium so that the “fragile housing recovery that has begun can continue.” The foreclosure delays may have a particular impact on some of the hardest-hit housing markets particularly in western states like Nevada, Arizona & California, as well as Florida.   He said there’s no evidence yet of “structural” issues with the Mortgage Electronic Registration System, an electronic registry of home loans that critics have charged with violating property record-keeping laws. Banks that package loans into bonds called mortgage-backed securities often rely on MERS to track owners of mortgages as the securities change hands. Bank of America (BAC), a Dow stock, has the biggest exposure, some estimates place their total at $25B & Wells Fargo (WFC) is seen in 2nd place.  WFC stock has held up fairly well but BAC has fallen 10% since the crisis came to light last week.

White House sees no ‘structural’ foreclosure issueat MarketWatch

Bank of America   --   2 weeks



Wells Fargo   ---   2 weeks





Stocks flew high taking the Dow Jones average near its 11.2K high for 2010 (reached 6 months ago). The hot sectors continue very hot:  gold, MLPs, Treasuries & REITs are getting very hot.  It's harder to see justification for them as most dividends have been cut with little prospect of significant increases in the short run. 

Dow Jones Index   ---   YTD





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