Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Markets sell off on uncertainty about the next moves by the FED

Stocks have been under pressure in the AM.  The Dow fell 132, decliners ahead of advancerfs 4-1 & NAZ was 15.  Banks are traditionally market leaders (although not lately) & took the Financial Index down about 1.


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value 195.28 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX (S5FINL:IND)
Change   0.78  (0.4%)




The Alerian MLP Index dropped 3+ (1%, a very big move) after reaching another record close yesterday.  Ex-distributions are a drag, but most of the decline is due to profit selling.  The REIT index fell 2½ to 220 & junk bond funds were generally a little lower.  Treasury 10-year bonds dropped for a 6th day, the longest in 2 years on speculation a Federal Reserve program to boost the economy may be gradual.  The yield rose 6 basis points to 2.69% & is approaching the 2.80+% high almost 2 months ago.

Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month
0.13%
U.S. 2-year
0.40%
U.S. 10-year
2.68%


Alerian MLP Index   ---   2 weeks



Dow Jones REIT Index   ---   2 weeks



10-Year Treasury Yield Index   ---   2 weeks





Oil was flat but gold declined for a 2nd day as a stronger dollar curbed demand for the metal.

CLZ10.NYM...Crude Oil Dec 10...81.19 ....Down 1.36  (1.7%)

GCV10.CMX....Gold Oct 10......1,324.00 ....Down 14.00  (1.1%)




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Sales of U.S. New Homes Increased in September

Photo:  Bloomberg


Sales of new homes improved last month after the worst summer in nearly half a century, but not enough to lift the struggling economy.  The Commerce Dept reported new home sales in Sep grew 6.6% from the prior month to an annual pace of 307K. Even with the increase, the past 5 months have been the worst for new home sales on records dating back to 1963.  New home sales have risen 9% from the bottom in May but are still down 78% from their peak sales rate of nearly 1.4M in Jul 2005. A healthy sales pace is around 800K.  Builders are competing with millions of foreclosures & other distressed properties that show no signs of abating.  The median sales price was $223K, up 3.3% from a year earlier.

Sales of U.S. New Homes Increased Again in September

New home sales  --  1 year

One-Year Chart for Total sold (NHSLTOT:IND)




Procter & Gamble (PG), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, reported betgter-than-expected quarterly profit as new products & strength in emerging markets spurred sales volume growth.  Cost cuts also boosted profits in a sluggish global economy that is pushing consumers to buy lower-priced products in some categories.  PG expects full-year EPS of $3.91-4.01, excluding special items, about what analysts are expecting ($3.97).  "During the quarter we still were very successful on premium-priced items like Gillette ProGlide, which is a 15 percent price premium, and other premium-priced items," CEO Bob McDonald said. "But then there was also some trading down as you would expect within categories."  PG developed markets grew below expectations of 1%, while developing markets grew 8 times as fast.  EPS was $1.02 in its Q1 ended Sep 30, below $1.06 last year & $1.00 expected by analysts.  Revenue rose 2% to $20.1B.  However, volume, a measure of products shipped that factors out currency fluctuations & price changes, rose 8%.  The stock was up only a penny & has been flattish during the market rally over the last 2 years. 

P&G First-Quarter Profit Falls 6.8%, Tops Analysts' Estimates

Procter & Gamble  --   2 years





Today's down draft is nothing serious for the bulls, to be expected.  Dreary home sales are the main reason for the selling.  Dow has been going nowhere for a couple of weeks, not been able to break thru 11K in a meaningful way.  Earnings season is winding down with big oils & retailers getting ready to report.  One encouraging sign for the bulls is that Treasury rates appear to have bottomed out.  But higher rates may be a kick in the head for MLPs after the index has already gained an amazing 65 YTD.


Dow Jones Industrials   ---   2 weeks












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