Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Markets waffle as US GDP contracts in Q4

Dow slipped 14, decliners over advancers 3-2 & NAZ was flat.  The Financial Index was down 1+ to the 234s. The MLP index pulled back 2 to the 426s from yesterday's new record & the REIT index lost 3 to the 278s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries fell, taking the yield on the 10 year Treasury over 2%.  Oil was flattish at an almost 9 month high & gold shot up 18, negative bets on economic recovery.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

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Tracking fund:

U.S. 3-month

0.068%

U.S. 2-year

0.275%

U.S. 10-year

2.015%

CLH13.NYM...Crude Oil Mar 13...97.79 .....Up 0.22 (0.2%

GCG13.CMX...Gold Feb 13.....1,676.30 ...Up 15.50 (0.9%)








<p>               In this Wed. Dec. 5, 2012, photo, containers are unloaded from cargo ships at  the Port of Los Angeles. Most economists agree that the snapshot of U.S. economic growth released Wednesday, Jan. 30, 2012, is going to look dismal. (AP Photo/Nick Ut)

Photo:   Yahoo

The US economy shrank in Q4 for the first time since the recession ended, hurt by the biggest cut in defense spending in 40 years, fewer exports & sluggish growth in company stockpiles.  The decline occurred despite faster growth in consumer spending & business investment.  The Commerce Dept said that the economy contracted at an annual rate of 0.1% in Q4, a sharp slowdown from the 3.1% growth rate in Q3 & the first contraction since Q2 2009.  Economists said the surprise decrease wasn't as bad as it looked because the weakness was primarily the result of one-time factors.  Gov spending cuts & slower inventory growth subtracted 2.6 percentage points from growth.  Those volatile categories offset a 2.2% increase in consumer spending, up from only 1.6% in Q3.  And business spending on equipment & software rose after shrinking over the summer.  For all of 2012, the economy grew 2.2%, better than 2011's growth of 1.8%.  Exports fell by the most in nearly 4 years, likely a result of Europe's recession & slower growth in China other large developing countries.  The economy may stay weak at the start of the year because Americans are coming to grips with an increase in Social Security taxes that has left them with less take-home pay.



 

Photo:   Yahoo

Boeing, a Dow  stock, quarterly earnings & revenue beat expectations.  EPS excluding items fell to $1.28 from $1.83 in the year-earlier period & revenue rose to $22.4B from $19.6B.  Analysts had expected $22.4B in revenue with EPS of $1.19.  BA said its current guidance for 2013 assumes no significant discount for the Federal Aviation Administration's 787 investigation into the lithium-ion batteries used on the aircraft that had experienced multiple problems & raised questions about their reliability.  The company expects EPS, excluding items, of $6.10-$6.30, & forecast capital expenditures of $2.3-$2.5B.  BA also said it is on track to produce 635-645 aircraft in 2013, including 60 787s.  The stock rose 70¢.

Boeing Profit View Meets Estimates as 787 Probe Drags

Boeing (BA)

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Speaking of a shrinking economy, Spain's recession is worse than thought.  Official figures show the economy shrank 0.7% in Q4 2012 from Q3.  The figure from Spain's National Statistics Office was higher than last week's 0.6% estimate from the Bank of Spain & provides further evidence that the economy is hobbled by its high level of debts & sky-high unemployment as well as the gov's raft of austerity measures.  The economy, the 4th-biggest of the 17 EU countries that use the €, has been shrinking for the last 18 months & unemployment stands at a heady 26%.  The statistics department said economic activity was down 1.8% in Q4 from the year-earlier period.  For the whole of 2012, it shrank 1.4% (that's a lot).  The Q4 decline was also more than double the 0.3% drop recorded in Q3.  The € was up a smidgen at almost $1.36.

Spain's recession deeper than thought AP


All month, stocks have been absorbing negative news well with only minimal selling.  Macro economic issues have been discarded & Dow is up 925 YTD, one of its best months in history.  The euro region economy remains in a recession with the troubled countries floundering.  And the US has whopper size financial problems starting with lower take home pay for the vast majority of Americans.  A sluggish economy & gov cutbacks in spending may get more recognition in Feb.

Dow Jones Industrials

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