Dow slid 6, decliners over advancers 5-4 & NAZ climbed 13. The MLP index fell 7+ to the 441s & the REIT index lost 1+ to 340. Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries traded lower. Oil sank to 49 (2 days ago it was 53) & gold declined.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](http://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.5529777221528978)
Today saw the ending of Greek sovereign & sovereign-guaranteed debt eligibility at the ECB. The weekly liquidity-providing operation that ended today,
was providing €151B ($170B) to euro-area banks. The
new operation, the first without Greek sovereign debt & starting
today, is for €104B, a week-on-week drop of €47.2B. The Greek banks will now switch to Emergency Liquidity Assistance
from the Greek central bank for their liquidity needs. This liquidity is
slightly more expensive than ECB liquidity. Also, it can be switched
off at any time by a vote of the ECB governing council. At the moment, the ECB seems to be in a wait-and-see mode on ELA. But
it has already started to turn the screw a little. ECB chief economist & governing council member Peter Praet
said that ELA is for short-term needs only & that it essentially is a
"bridge to somewhere." To get an idea of what this might mean, we can look back to Cyprus in
2013, when national banks also came to rely on ELA after the ECB
implemented a similar sovereign debt eligibility rule there. With Cyprus unable to agree on a program, the ECB issued a press release,
that said, "The Governing Council of the European Central Bank decided
to maintain the current level of Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA)
until Mon, 25 Mar 2013." "Thereafter, Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) could only be
considered if an EU/IMF programme is in place that would ensure the
solvency of the concerned banks."
If the ECB's track record & Praet's statement are anything to go
by, Greece may find that abandoning the troika program may also mean
abandoning liquidity for its banks.
The US budget deficit for Jan was smaller than forecast as stronger growth & rising employment boosts tax revenue, Treasury Dept said. Spending exceeded revenue by $17.5B last month, compared with a $10.3B shortfall a year earlier. That was narrower than the estimate & a Congressional Budget Office forecast that were both for a $19B deficit. The imbalance is forecast to shrink for a 5th straight year in fiscal 2016, marking the longest span of improvement since the surpluses of the late 1990s, as falling unemployment helps boost revenue. The gap will be 2.6% of GDP in 2015, down from a peak of 9.8% of GDP in 2009. Revenue last month totaled $307B, 3.6% higher than a year earlier, while outlays increased 5.9% to $324B. For the first 4 months of the fiscal year that began Oct 1, the country ran a $194B deficit, compared with a $182B shortfall in the same period a year earlier.
Time Warner beat profit estimates for the 24th straight qtr as fees for its cable channels & HBO helped offset lower advertising sales. Q4 adjusted EPS were 98¢. EPS would have been $1.14 a share excluding restructuring costs & programming charges at Turner. Analysts had predicted 93¢. CEO Jeff Bewkes is trying to stimulate growth, offering a new Web-only subscription to HBO this year & making its cable networks such as TNT, TBS & CNN available to subscribers of Dish Network's (DISH) new online TV service. The company forecast adjusted EPS of $4.60-$4.70 this year, in line with estimates of $4.67. The company also raised its quarterly div by 10% to 35¢. TWX has been cutting jobs to reduce costs, boosting licensing fees & spending more on sports rights, betting that will help retain viewers on networks including TNT, which hosts National Basketball Association games. Revenue dropped 1% to $7.53B, just shy of the estimate for $7.54. Sales at the Turner Broadcasting cable channels increased 2.3% to $2.61B as subscription fees climbed 5%, helping to counter a 1% drop in ad revenue. Subscription revenue was driven by an increase in fees it charges pay-TV providers & intl expansion. Revenues at HBO increased 6.2% to $1.34B. The premium network lured more subscribers & licensed its original programming to online streaming sites. The drag on performance was the Warner Bros. film studio as sales fell 4.5% to $3.82B due to lower home movie sales of films. The stock rose 20¢. If you would like to learn more about TWX, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/TWX?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7
Today nothing was solved in Europe & stocks drifted with a slight bias on the selling side. More guidance is needed. Euro bigwigs are also discussing Ukraine, another problem that is stuck in nuetral. Oil, down to 49, is a nagging problem keeping buyers away. Dow is barely in the black YTD.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
| CLH15.NYM | ....Crude Oil Mar 15 | ....48.99 |  ...1.03 | (2.1%) |
The One Certainty About Greece Today
The US budget deficit for Jan was smaller than forecast as stronger growth & rising employment boosts tax revenue, Treasury Dept said. Spending exceeded revenue by $17.5B last month, compared with a $10.3B shortfall a year earlier. That was narrower than the estimate & a Congressional Budget Office forecast that were both for a $19B deficit. The imbalance is forecast to shrink for a 5th straight year in fiscal 2016, marking the longest span of improvement since the surpluses of the late 1990s, as falling unemployment helps boost revenue. The gap will be 2.6% of GDP in 2015, down from a peak of 9.8% of GDP in 2009. Revenue last month totaled $307B, 3.6% higher than a year earlier, while outlays increased 5.9% to $324B. For the first 4 months of the fiscal year that began Oct 1, the country ran a $194B deficit, compared with a $182B shortfall in the same period a year earlier.
U.S. Posts Smaller Budget Deficit in January Than CBO Forecast
Time Warner beat profit estimates for the 24th straight qtr as fees for its cable channels & HBO helped offset lower advertising sales. Q4 adjusted EPS were 98¢. EPS would have been $1.14 a share excluding restructuring costs & programming charges at Turner. Analysts had predicted 93¢. CEO Jeff Bewkes is trying to stimulate growth, offering a new Web-only subscription to HBO this year & making its cable networks such as TNT, TBS & CNN available to subscribers of Dish Network's (DISH) new online TV service. The company forecast adjusted EPS of $4.60-$4.70 this year, in line with estimates of $4.67. The company also raised its quarterly div by 10% to 35¢. TWX has been cutting jobs to reduce costs, boosting licensing fees & spending more on sports rights, betting that will help retain viewers on networks including TNT, which hosts National Basketball Association games. Revenue dropped 1% to $7.53B, just shy of the estimate for $7.54. Sales at the Turner Broadcasting cable channels increased 2.3% to $2.61B as subscription fees climbed 5%, helping to counter a 1% drop in ad revenue. Subscription revenue was driven by an increase in fees it charges pay-TV providers & intl expansion. Revenues at HBO increased 6.2% to $1.34B. The premium network lured more subscribers & licensed its original programming to online streaming sites. The drag on performance was the Warner Bros. film studio as sales fell 4.5% to $3.82B due to lower home movie sales of films. The stock rose 20¢. If you would like to learn more about TWX, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/TWX?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7
Time Warner Tops Estimates as Cable, HBO Fees Offset Ad Drop
Time Warner (TWX)
Today nothing was solved in Europe & stocks drifted with a slight bias on the selling side. More guidance is needed. Euro bigwigs are also discussing Ukraine, another problem that is stuck in nuetral. Oil, down to 49, is a nagging problem keeping buyers away. Dow is barely in the black YTD.
Dow Jones Industrials
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