Friday, February 8, 2019

Lower markets as trade talks stall

Dow dropped 241 (at session lows), decliners over advancers about 5-2 & NAZ fell 43.  The MLP index lost 2+ to the  239s & the REIT index went up 3+ to the 367s (closing in on its recent record highs).  Junk bond funds slid lower & Treasuries rose in price.  Oil were flattish (more below) & gold added 2 to 1317.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil52.48
-0.16-0.3%

GC=FGold   1,318.40
+4.20+0.3%







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Stocks traded lower as investors remain concerned about trade relations between the US & China.  Another round of talks is scheduled for next week in Beijing, but Pres Trump said yesterday he did not plan to meet with Chinese Pres Xi Jinping before the Mar 1 deadline set by the 2 countries for reaching a trade pact.  White House advisor Larry Kudlow said, "There is a pretty sizable distance to go in U.S.-China trade talks."  After those comments, the Dow fell into a downward spiral in the last session.  In Asian markets today, Hong Kong's Hang Seng returned to trading after the Lunar New Year holiday & closed lower by 0.3% on the trade deal concerns.  Chinese markets remained closed.  Japan's Nikkei sank 2%, its biggest one-day loss since early Jan.  For the week, the index lost 2.2%.  In Europe,  London's FTSE was slightly lower, Germany's DAX fell 0.8% & France's CAC slipped 0.3%.

Stocks fall on US-China trade deal concerns

Trade talks between the US & China are so far apart that neither side has put anything in writing yet, according to reports.  The 2 sides have not even drafted an accord specifying the matters they agree & disagree on.  The US & China are trying to meet an early Mar trade deadline.  If a deal is not struck before then, US tariffs on Chinese goods will increase, barring some sort of extension.  The report comes just a day after White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow said there is a "pretty sizable distance to go before China & the US reach a deal."  Kudlow also indicated, however, that Pres Trump is "optimistic with respect to a potential trade deal."  After that, Trump said that a meeting with Chinese Pres Xi Jinping will not take place before the crucial Mar deadline. Trump's remarks came hours a report the meeting was "highly unlikely," citing a senior White House official.  Stocks fell sharply on yesterday as it became clear the meeting will not take place before the deadline.

The US and China don’t even have a trade deal draft yet as deadline approaches

Pres Trump is expected to sign an exec order next week that would ban Chinese telecommunication equipment from US wireless networks,  according to sources.  They said the Trump administration plans to release the directive before a major industry conference, which will start on Feb 25, to signal the importance of cybersecurity in future high-end technology contracts.  As infrastructure for the next generation of ultra-high speed internet, known as 5G, is being developed, US officials want "to move the needle" on security, a source close to the administration said.

Trump is reportedly expected to ban Chinese telecom equipment from US networks

Oil futures remained stuck in a tight trading range today, with the benchmark on track for a weekly loss of nearly 5%, as signs of a weakening global economy threaten a slowdown in energy demand.  Traders also continue to assess risks to global supply from OPEC output cuts & US sanctions on Venezuela, which offer support to prices.  US benchmark Mar West Texas Intermediate crude oil was down 15¢ (0.3%) at $52.50 a barrel, trading between a low of $52.08 & high of $52.99.  Prices traded 4.9% lower for the week.  Intl benchmark Apr Brent edged up 29¢ (0.5%) to $61.92 a barrel, down by a smaller percentage for the week, roughly 1.3%.  The weekly drop was fueled by yesterday's sharp retreat, which came amid worries about energy demand, a stronger $ that makes US-priced commodities less attractive & reports that Libya could soon increase production.  China-US trade uncertainty & a vulnerable stock market are adding to the worrisome economic picture highlighted by oil bears.

U.S. oil benchmark on track for a 5% weekly slide


Stocks are having a tough time finding friends after their recent rally (shown below).  Meanwhile, nervous investors are buying the classical "safe haven" investments, gold & Treasuries.  With glum prospects on trade talks & an uncertain future about the southern border, caution seems to be in order.

Dow Jones Industrials








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