Wednesday, February 6, 2019

Markets ease lower after State of the Union speech

Dow lost 21, decliners over advancers 3-2 & NAZ was off 26.  The MLP index fell 3+ to the 247s & the REIT index went up 2 to the 366s.  Junk bond funds slid lower & Treasuries were about even.  Oil edged higher to 54 & gold fell 8 to 1310.

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Stocks traded lower the day after Pres Trump delivered the State of the Union address.  Trump used his 2nd State of the Union to tout the economic benefits achieved under his administration in the past 2 years.  From jobs, to energy production & new trade deals, Trump boasted of his achievements while calling on Congress to build upon initiatives from his administration on health care & back new federal funding for campaigns to eliminate AIDs in the US & encourage new treatments for childhood cancers.  In the address, Trump cited the tariffs on Beijing as providing the Treasury "billions of dollars."  Duties in fiscal year 2017 increased by $7B, according to federal data.  In economic news, the US trade deficit narrowed in Nov.  The foreign-trade gap in goods & services fell 11.5% from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted $49.3B in Nov, the Commerce Dept said.  Stocks were weighed down by communication services stocks following disappointing results from video game makers.  In Asian markets, Japan's Nikkei inched higher while markets in Hong Kong & China remained closed for the Lunar New Year holiday.  In Europe, the major markets finished the session lower.  London's FTSE slipped 0.1%,  Germany's DAX fell 0.4% & France's CAC was off a smidgen.

Stocks trade lower on disappointing earnings

The US trade deficit with its global partners fell in Nov for the first time after 5 straight months of increases as the shortfall with China & several other countries declined.  Tightening the balance between imports & exports has been a major goal of the Trump administration, which last year started levying tariffs in an effort to close the gap.  Gov data showed the gap had closed in Nov, the most recent month for which data was available, to $49.3B from $55.7B in Oct, representing an 11.5% decline.  The forecast was calling for a deficit of $54.3B.  The decline was largely due to a slide in imports, which fell 2.9% to $259.2B.  Exports edged lower to $209.9B, a 0.6% drop.  In all, the year-to-date goods & services deficit increased by $51.9B, a 10.4% rise from the same period in 2017.  Exports rose $157 (7.3%) while imports gained $209B (7.9%).  Among individual countries, the gap with China closed $2.8B to $35.4B.  Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said that trade talks have been "very productive."

US trade deficit narrows much more than expected in a win for Trump

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent dinner with Pres Truimp at the White House was "very casual," Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said.  "Chairman Powell gave the president an overview of the economy and what he was seeing, which was quite strong and consistent with his public comments," Mnuchin added.  "We talked about everything from the economy to the golf match with Tiger [Woods] & Jack [Nicklaus] to the Super Bowl. We covered a wide range."  Trump & Powell sat down at dinner together on Mon for about an hour & a half, with Mnuchin & Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida also in attendance.  "It was, I think, a terrific meeting for them to get to see each other. They had not met since Jay Powell was put into office," Mnuchin added.  The dinner also came less than a week after Powell's Fed decided to leave interest rates alone & said it will be more "patient" in assessing future rate hikes.  Trump has repeatedly attacked the Fed for raising rates.  During the news conference following the Fed's policy meeting last week, Powell said the Fed does not take "political considerations" into account when making its decisions.  "I think the Fed chair was very consistent in what he said to the president with what he's been saying publicly in his press conferences. I think that the Fed chair has been very clear in looking at the economy and the Fed being clear that they have lots of different tools," Mnuchin added.  "Again, I thought it was productive meeting. It was a casual meeting."  Mnuchin clarified that "there was not a thank you" from Trump for Powell maintaining interest rates.  Rather, Mnuchin said there was only "a thank you for coming for dinner."  When asked how the pres & his officials were able to walk the fine line of being apolitical in discussions with the Fed, Mnuchin noted that he meets "with Jay Powell every week."  "I think Jay Powell is very clear that he wasn't going to say anything in private inconsistent with what he said publicly, although, we did have somewhat of a covert operation getting him into the White House so that it didn't create speculation. Jay Powell put out a statement right after the meeting — we weren't trying to hide this," Mnuchin said.  He added that Powell "did not" have a wig & a mustache on to slip into the White House.

Mnuchin says Fed Chief Powell gave Trump an overview of the economy at 'very casual' dinner

The Trump administration is dispatching Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer & Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin to Beijing early next week to continue trade talks as a Mar 1 deadline to reach an accord nears.  Pres Trump hasn't yet committed to meeting Xi Jinping, a shift from Trump's comments last week.  “I’ll be meeting with President Xi, maybe once and maybe twice,” he said during an Oval Office meeting today with China's top trade negotiator, Vice Premier Liu He.  A meeting between the 2 pres's would signal that the talks were nearly finished, according to trade experts, with the 2 pres's ready to make the final compromises ready for a deal.  The lack of commitment to a Trump-Xi meeting wasn't a sign negotiations had stalled, but simply reflected how much needed to be accomplished before the 2 sides could make a deal.  “The vibe was good,” the official said of last week's talks.  In talks between the 2 nations last week in DC, the official said, the Chinese agreed to broaden the areas for discussion to include items China had previously declared off-limits because of national-security reasons.

Lighthizer, Mnuchin heading to Beijing next week for further trade negotiations


General Motors (GM) is already seeing some savings come from its recently announced plan to cut 14K jobs & restructure the company, executives said.  The automaker, which started handing pink slips to more than 4K white-collar workers, expects its plan to save about $6B in cash thru 2020 with about ½ of that coming this year.  About $4.5B of that will be cost savings & another $1.5B will come from less spending on capital expenses. lower capital expenditure rate.  "We were also able to accelerate the execution of our transformational cost savings and started to see early benefits of these actions in the fourth quarter," CFO Dhivya Suryadevara told analysts.  The plan though has drawn criticism from both the UAW union & several high-profile politicians in the regions affected by the cuts.  GM said it spent roughly $1.3M during the qtr on "transformation activities," which were excluded from its adjusted earnings results.  GM said the charges included employee separation costs & accelerated depreciation.  The company eliminated about 3750 salaried positions thru buyouts & by cutting contract workers, leaving roughly 4250 salaried workers & 6K hourly employees targeted for layoffs in North America.  The company has offered jobs to all 2800 hourly workers affected in the US.  About 1K have already accepted new positions at other plants & 1200 are eligible for retirement said.  The other 3K hourly workers in Canada are getting help finding jobs & training.  In Canada, about 20 local employers have expressed interest in hiring GM's laid off workers & GM is providing out-placement services to the affected salaried employees.  GM made the decision to cut jobs at plants which the automaker said were only running at a fraction of their total capacity.  The automaker chose to essentially stop producing several vehicles that have seen drops in sales, as consumers ditch sedans & passenger cars for SUVs & pickups.  The stock rose 63¢.
If you would like to learn more about GM, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/GM?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

GM says 'we are already seeing savings from restructuring'

Delayed Q4 GDP data is expected to be released Feb 28.  The trade talks with China are still ongoing as the Mar deadline is only 3 weeks away.  Optimism on trade talks is welcomed by traders.  But today was a largely uneventful day for stocks.  While the Dow remained close to breakeven all day, it's also within striking distance of setting a new record.  Gold fell for 4 straight sessions, but remains in demand by some investors.
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