Tuesday, February 19, 2019

Markets edge higher as US-China trade talks resume

Dow went up 8, advancers over declines about 2-1 & NAZ rose 4.  The MLP index jumped 4+ to the 256s & the REIT index remained in demand, rising 2+ to 371s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were purchased today.  Oil advanced to 56 & gold shot up 21 to 1344 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




3 Stocks You Should Own Right Now - Click Here!





The US is reportedly asking China to address the value of its currency as part of the trade deal.  The move would be aimed at mediating any effort by the Chinese to devalue the yuan to counter American tariffs.  The Trump administration has insisted that moves to devalue the yuan to buoy Chinese exports would be countered with additional or more severe American tariffs.  Representatives for the 2 nations resumed overall trade discussions today, with follow-up sessions at a higher level scheduled for later in the week.  Though last week's deliberations that ended in Beijing concluded without a deal, officials said progress was made on some contentious issues.  US stocks extended their gains after Pres Trump said that the Mar deadline is not a "magical date," suggesting the cutoff could be adjusted.  Still, current talks are aimed at "achieving needed structural changes in China that affect trade between the US & China.  The 2 sides will also discuss China's pledge to purchase a substantial amount of goods & services from the US," the White House said.  Meetings between the top brass will start on Thurs & be led by US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, a vocal advocate of pressing China to end practices that the US says include forced technology transfers & intellectual property theft.  The $ is currently worth 6.75 Chinese yuan, down from highs above 6.9 in Nov.  Beijing least year reintroduced measures to stabilize its managed currency, including a calculation method called the counter-cyclical factor (CCF), aimed at keeping the yuan's daily midpoint fixed to a relatively stable value.  But China has faced intl pressure in the past for what many deemed unfair manipulation of its currency.  Many economists argue that China's tampering in years past gave their exports a boost as a weaker yuan made Chinese exports less expensive.

Washington said to urge Beijing for a stable currency in trade talks

Crude-oil production from 7 major US shale plays is forecast to climb by 84K barrels a day in Mar to 8.398M barrels a day, according to a report from the Energy Information Administration.  Oil output from the Permian Basin, which covers parts of western Texas & southeastern New Mexico, is expected to see the largest climb among the big shale plays, with an increase of 43K barrels a day in Mar from Feb.  The Mar contract for West Texas Intermediate oil futures was up 28¢ (0.5%) at $55.87 a barrel ahead.

EIA forecasts U.S. shale oil output to climb by 84,000 barrels a day in March


Gold futures rallied nearly 2% to log their highest finish since Apr, as the stock market assumed a defensive stance on the back of the latest round of talks in the US-China trade spat.  Financial markets await the latest trade developments, as discussions resumed today in DC.  A 90-day tariff truce between the parties is set to end at the start of Mar.  Pres Trump yesterday tweeted about the trade talks, saying “Big progress being made on soooo many different fronts!”  Apr gold gained $22.70 (1.7%) to settle at $1344 an ounce, the highest most-active contract settlement since Apr 19 & biggest single-session $ & percentage gain since Nov 1.  The contract settled at a 2-week high of $1322 Fri, enough to flip the contract to positive for last week.  US markets were closed Mon for the Pres Day holiday.  Gold, typically bought as a haven asset in times of political uncertainty, has seen largely subdued daily moves.  Still, Trump's declaration of a national emergency at the end of last week to pay for a wall along the US-Mexico border prompted 16 states filed a federal lawsuit yesterday challenging the declaration which may be offering some haven support for gold.  US benchmark stock indices edged up in dealings & bond demand pushed down yields.  Precious metals tend to draw buying in a low interest-rate climate . Rising rates make nonyielding gold less attractive to investors who will chase higher yields elsewhere.

Gold rallies to a 10-month high as trade-talk continuation captures market attention


Stocks were choppy in AM trading but some of the bulls returned in the PM, taking the Dow into the black (but just barely).  Earnings from retailers are coming this week & Dow stock Walmart (WMT) earnings were well received today. .Adding to trade optimism, Trump said that the Mar 1 deadline was not a "magical date."  There is a lot riding this week on the US-China talks & the Dow is within 1K of its previous record.  But gold is also being purchased by nervous investors.

Dow Jones Industrials








No comments: