Friday, February 22, 2019

Markets rise on optimism about a trade deal

Dow jump up 164. advancers over decliners 3-1 & NAZ rose 54.  The MLP index went up 2+ to the 253s & the REIT index was steady at 369s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were bid higher.  Oil went up to the 57s & gold gained 4 to 1332.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil57.38
+0.42+0.7%

GC=FGold   1,332.70
+4.90+0.4%








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Stocks traded higher as investors brace for continued trade talks between the US  & China.  The 2nd day of high level talks is taking place & will reach another level as Pres Trump will meet with China's top trade negotiator, Liu He, in DC.  In Asian markets, China's Shanghai Composite ended up 1.9% on the day & 4.5% for the week.  Hong Kong's Hang Seng finished with a gain of 0.7% & Japan's Nikkei slipped 0.2%, snapping a 4 days of gains.  In Europe, London's FTSE added 0.4%, Germany's DAX was also up 0.4% & France's CAC added 0.3%.

Stocks trade higher as US-China trade talks continue

The 2nd day of high level talks will take place on today between US & China trade negotiators.  The talks will reach another level as Pres Trump will meet with China's top trade negotiator, Liu He, in DC.  The US is trying to come up with a preliminary deal before tariffs on some Chinese imports more than double on Mar 1.  On that day, a 90-day truce would end that Pres Trump & Chinese Pres Xi Jinping agreed to when they met in Argentina late last year.  Pres Trump said on Tues that talks with China were going well and suggested he was open to pushing off the deadline to complete negotiations, saying Mar 1 was not a "magical" date.  Liu & Trump met in late Jan when Liu was in DC for a previous round of talks.  Since then, he has been named as Xi's special envoy, prompting speculation that he has greater authority to make a deal.  As the discussions continued yesterday, reports emerged that negotiators are working on memorandums of understanding that would form the basis of a final deal.  It would cover areas including agriculture, non-tariff barriers, services, technology transfer & intellectual property, according to a leaker.  Investors are keeping a close eye on negotiations considering a setback could undermine global markets as concerns grow that the bilateral tensions are hurting world trade.

Trump to meet China's trade chief

Caterpillar (CAT), a Dow stock, shares dipped after a report that the EU is preparing to target the US heavy machines builder with tariffs. The EU's move would be in implemented if Pres Trump goes thru with his plan to put tariffs on European automakers.  Trump is threatening tariffs of up to 25% on imported European autos & auto parts.  He would implement the tariffs by designating the imports a national security threat, according to a Commerce Dept report.  "Caterpillar competes best in a free trade environment," the company said.  "This situation continues to be very fluid and we are actively engaged in the discussions. We are hopeful that the government leaders can work toward a positive outcome for all parties."  Beyond CAT, the EU also has said it would not feel obliged to stick to its promise to buy more soybeans & liquefied gas from the US.  Trump has long focused on crushing overseas automakers with heavy tariffs, reportedly seeing the threat of further car duties as his best trade negotiating tactic.  The stock was off 23¢.
If you would like to learn more about CAT, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/CAT?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Caterpillar shares dip after report that EU will target the company if US places tariffs on cars

The natural gas market is emerging from winter relatively unscathed despite potentially disruptive Chinese tariffs on US gas.  But the ongoing trade dispute is still putting a chill on cooperation between the 2 energy powerhouses & threatens to sideline Bs in investment.  Chinese tariffs on US natural gas have halted Beijing's purchases of US LNG, a form of the fuel chilled to liquid form for transport by sea.  The trade dispute has also delayed at least one LNG export terminal slated for construction in Louisiana & threatens to push back the start date for other facilities.  In the long-run, it's inevitable for gas trade to resume between China & the US.  China is the engine behind growing LNG demand, while the US is the world's top natural gas producer.  But a breakthrough on gas trade depends on reaching a deal on separate issues that are difficult to resolve.  Beijing & DC are reportedly hammering out a blueprint to address those tough issues, from assuring American companies have access to Chinese markets to protecting US intellectual property.  However, it now appears that negotiators will move the goal line back from the original Mar 1 deadline to strike a deal, forestalling a potential increase in tariffs, but delaying the removal of China's current 10% tax on US LNG.  The dispute comes as developers are planning a second wave of US LNG export terminals, mostly along the Gulf Coast.  The trade feud is also continuing as the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission yesterday broke an impasse that held up key approvals for new US LNG export terminals.  Greenlighting those projects usually requires lining up long-term customers who will commit to buying LNG once the terminal is complete.

US-China trade dispute puts a chill on American natural gas export boom

Stocks are finishing the week with the bulls bidding prices higher.  The averages have been going straight up so far today.  At the same time gold & Treasuries are also being purchased by negative thinkers.  Currently the Dow is back over 26K, needing just 800 for a fresh record high.

Dow Jones Industrials








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