Tuesday, February 26, 2019

Mixed markets as Powell begins testimony to congress

Dow gave back 27, advancers & decliners were about even & NAZ added 3. The MLP index fell 1+ to 251 & the REIT index dropped 2+ to the 367s.  Junk bond funds slid lower & Treasuries were purchased.  Oil was steady in the 55s & gold hardly budged at 1328.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund


CL=FCrude Oil55.63
+0.15+0.3%

GC=FGold   1,326.70
-2.80-0.2%






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Stocks pared losses to trade mixed ahead of Fed Chairman Jay Powell's semi-annual testimony to Congress.  Federal Reeserve Chairman Powell  begins the first of his 2-day semi-annual testimony to both houses of Congress on the central bank's monetary policy.  In its semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress, the Fed reiterated it will remain patient in determining further adjustments to interest rates given uncertainty about the economic outlook.  The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller report on home prices for Dec showed that the rate of home price increases across the US has continued to slow.  The 20-City Composite posted a 4.2% year-over-year gain, down from 4.6% in the previous month.  Housing starts dropped 11.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.078M units last month, the weakest reading since Sep 2016.  In Asian markets, China's Shanghai Composite ended the day flat & Hong Kong's Hang Seng slipped 0.4% as did Japan's Nikkei.  In Europe, London's FTSE fell 0.5%, Germany's DAX crawled higher & France’s CAC slid back 0.1%.
Stocks fall as Fed's Powell testifies, Home Depot disappoints

Chairman Powell heads to Capitol Hill in the first of his 2-day semi-annual testimony to both houses of Congress on the central bank's monetary policy.  In its semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress, the Fed reiterated it will remain patient in determining further adjustments to interest rates given uncertainty about the economic outlook.  His testimony comes as his Former Fed Chair Janet Yellen slamed Pres Trump for not understanding how the Fed works.  In recent months, Trump bashed the central bank for hiking rates & now policymakers say they are assessing the outlook for muted inflation, slowing global growth & tighter financial conditions and the impact on the U.S. economy before deciding on future rate hikes.  Officials are carefully watching data like consumer sentiment, inflation, global growth & volatility in markets to assess the economic outlook.  But while officials have pledged to remain patient, the monetary policy report indicates the current rate hiking cycle may not be complete.  The Fed still expects “some further gradual hikes over the longer term” though the path for rate hikes has come down, according to the report.  Any increases in the benchmark interest rate over the next few years would be gradual.  Most officials expect interest rates at the end of 2020 & 2021 will be a bit higher than their long-term estimate for the benchmark interest rate of 2.8%.  With the odds for a trade deal with China rising, that could spur stronger global growth later this year & a rally in global markets.  Still, several officials have nudged down their growth outlook for this year amid slower global growth & volatility in the markets that's led to tighter credit conditions.  Though, the Fed says credit financing conditions for consumers largely remain supportive of spending.  In the report, officials also saw trade tensions & foreign economic developments, like Brexit, as downside risks to growth.  They said tariffs could also risk higher inflation.

Fed's Powell patient for now, but more hikes in store?


Consumer confidence increased in Feb to 131.4 from 121.7 in Jan, the Conference Board said, as expectations rebounded following recent months of market volatility & the gov shutdown.  "Consumer Confidence rebounded in February, following three months of consecutive declines," said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board, adding that "Looking ahead, consumers expect the economy to continue expanding."

Consumer confidence hits 131.4 in February, vs 124 expected

Home Depot (HD), a Dow stock, said the company is seeing slower growth in housing as concern about a cooling market grows.  "As we look to 2019, most housing metrics are trending positive, albeit trending toward stability," CFO Carol Tome said.  Tome said that HD expects the US GDP to grow 2.6% during this year.  The Fed, meanwhile, said in Dec that it is forecasting GDP growth of 2.3%.  HD's commentary on the domestic economy comes as pressure increases on home sales & prices.  The Commerce Dept said yesterday that housing starts in Dec fell 11.2%, the slowest pace of construction in more than 2 years.  Shares of HD dropped after the company fell short on earnings & disappointed with its 2019 outlook.  The company said that it expects EPS of $10.03 this year, 23¢ less the estimates.  It is forecasting same-store sales growth of 5% in fiscal 2019 & revenue growth of 3.3%.  In fiscal 2018, it reported same-store sales growth of 5.2% & revenue increased by 7.2%.  The company is also shifting its calendar for fiscal 2019.  This year will include 52 weeks, compared to 53 in 2018.  EPS was $2.09 during its Q4, missing the $2.16 forecast.  Revenue was $26.5B, falling short of the $26.57B expected.  The stock dropped 3.76.
If you would like to learn more about HD, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/HD?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Home Depot sees slower growth in housing market as its 2019 outlook disappoints

This is shaping up as an uneventful day for trading.  Trump has his big summit.  Earnings from retailers are coming in & they look to be soggy, uninspiring for the bulls.  Powell's comments are not expected to move stocks.

Dow Jones Industrials






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