Wednesday, April 29, 2020

Higher markets climb higher on hopes for new cornovavirus treatment

Dow surged 532 to near session highs, advancers over decliners 8-1 & NAZ jumped 306.  The MLP index rose 10+ to the 138s & the REIT index advanced 6+ to 341.  Junk bond funds were bid higher & Treasuries drifted lower.  Oil rose almost 3 to the 15s while gold fell 1 to 1720 (more on both below).

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The Federal Reserve pledged to continue taking aggressive action to support an economy devastated by the coronavirus pandemic, including holding interest rates near zero until policymakers are confident the US has weathered the crisis & continuing to buy bonds.  "The ongoing public health crisis will weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term," the rate-setting FOMC said.  In a unanimous statement after their 2-day virtual gathering -- the first since the crisis began --policymakers vowed to use their "tools and act as appropriate to support the economy.”  The central bank reiterated previous guidance that the benchmark federal fund rate will remain at 0-0.25% "until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals.”  The Fed has already taken a range of extraordinary actions to support the economy, including slashing interest rates to near-zero, purchasing an unlimited amount of Treasuries (quantitative easing) & launching crisis-era lending facilities to ensure that credit flows to households and businesses.  It has also said it will buy corp bonds & lend to states & cities.  In the past 6 weeks, the Fed has pumped $2.3T into the economy, an unprecedented amount.  The Fed/s meetings come against a bleak backdrop: Hours earlier, the Commerce Dept revealed the US economy shrank by 4.8% in the first 3 months of the year, the sharpest decline since the financial crisis more than a decade ago.

Fed pledges sweeping action to support coronavirus-battered economy


Pres Trump's chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow predicted the US economy will experience a big "snapback" from the coronavirus pandemic in the latter ½ of 2020.  "I think the second half of this year is going to grow, big snapback," Kudlow said, suggesting growth could be as high as 20%.  The American economy shrank by 4.8% in Q1, the sharpest decline since the financial crisis more than a decade ago, the Commerce Dept reported.  It was the first drop recorded since 2014 & the worst since the Q1-2009, when the economy contracted by 4.4% in the midst of the financial crisis.  Still, the severity of the coronavirus-induced downturn will be reflected more accurately in Q2, when the nation's economy came to a near standstill to mitigate the spread of the virus.  While estimates vary widely, economists agree it'll be grim, possibly surpassing the worst of the Great Depression.

Kudlow reveals when he expects to see 'big snapback' for virus-hit economy


Boeing (BA)., a Dow stock, posted a loss Q1 as the COVID-19 pandemic & the grounding of the 737 MAX hammered sales.  The aerospace giant lost $641M ($1.11 per share) as revenue fell 26% to $16.9B.  The adjusted loss per share was $1.70, compared to the $1.61 loss expected.  “The COVID-19 pandemic is affecting every aspect of our business, including airline customer demand, production continuity and supply-chain stability,” CEO David Calhoun said.  He added BA is “progressing toward the safe return to service of the 737 MAX.”  Operating cash flow fell by $4.3B during the qtr.  Total cash increased by $15.5B, mostly due to total debt rising to $38.9B from $27.3B.  Commercial airplane revenue totaled $6.2B, down 48% year-over-year, as the number of aircraft delivered fell to 50 from 149 due to the grounding of the 737 MAX.  COVID-19 has adversely affected the planned production ramp for the aircraft.  BA expects production of the 737 Max to begin at low rates in 2020 & gradually increase to 31 per month during 2021.  The company reduced production rates for its 787 & 777 aircraft.  The company has a backlog of $439B & more than 5K for commercial aircraft.  The stock rose 7.82, helped by a rising market.
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Boeing posts massive loss as pandemic whacks 'every aspect of our business'


Oil prices jumped more than 20% after data showed a smaller-than-expected build in US inventories, as well as on the hope that economies will reopen sooner than expected.West Teaxas Intermedite (WTI) for Jun surged 22% ($2.72) to settle at $15.06 per barrel, after earlier trading as high as $16.78.  Intl benchmark Brent crude gained $2.08 (10%) to settle at $22.54 per barrel.  Optimism that economies will be able to re-open ahead of schedule rose after Gilead (GILD) said early results of its coronavirus drug trial showed that at least 50% of patients treated with a 5-day dosage of antiviral drug remdesivir improved & more than ½ were discharged from the hospital within 2 weeks.  Oil prices also got a boost on a smaller-than-expected build in US inventories.  According to the Energy Information Administration, crude stockpiles rose 9M barrels for last week ending Apr 24.  This was lower than the 11.7M barrel expected.  The data also showed that US production fell by 100K barrels per day last week to 12.1M bpd.  This is 1M bpd below the record 13.1M bpd production set during the week ending Mar 13.  Oil prices swayed wildly yesterday between gains & losses as investors continue to keep an eye on depleting crude storage space amid a dearth in demand.  The coronavirus pandemic, which has forced countries around the world to shut their economies temporarily as people are told to stay home, has reduced global demand for crude by as much as a 3rd, according to some estimates.  WTI for Jun delivery fell 44¢ (3.4%) to settle at $12.34 per barrel yesterday.  Intl benchmark Brent crude, on the other hand, gained 47¢ (2.4)%, to settle at $20.46.  In a note dated Apr 28, Moody's Investors Service said it was reducing its near-term oil price assumptions for WTI as well as Brent.  Data from the American Petroleum Institute released yesterday night showed that US crude inventories jumped by 10M barrels in the week to Apr 24, bringing the total to 510M barrels, lower than expectations for a build of 10.6M barrels.

Oil jumps 22% on smaller-than-expected inventory build, optimism around reopening economies

Gold futures finished lower for a 4th straight session, with possible progress on an experimental treatment for COVID-19 dulling haven demand for the precious metal.  Prices then edged higher after the official settlement when the Federal Reserve pledged to help the economy fight the devastating impact of the coronavirus pandemic.  Gold for Jun was at $1716 in trading shortly after the FOMC kept its benchmark interest rate in a range of 0-0.25% & said it will commit to using a full range of tools as the economy continues to face a public-health crisis.  The central bank has already exceeded its rescue effort in the 2008 financial crisis to soften the blow of the pandemic, pushing its balance sheet to a record $6.6T as of last week's count.  Prices for Jun gold contract were up from the settlement at $1713 (down $8 or 0.5%) from yesterday.  Commodity experts have been watching for a treatment or a vaccine for the deadly contagion which could undercut appetite for havens & support hopes of mitigating the impact of the virus.  A report indicating that the GILD  experimental treatment for the illness derived from the novel strain of coronavirus achieved some success in a gov-run clinical trial evaluating remdesivir in certain COVID-19 patients.  A first reading of the official scorecard of US economic activity, GDP, fell 4.8% in Q1 on an annualized basis, highlighting the effects of the coronavirus pandemic so far.  Gold has been mostly trading in a range recently, with gold bulls expecting it to possibly break out of that trend as data underlines the hard slog ahead for economies attempting to re-emerge from coronavirus-induced shutdowns.

Gold prices post a fourth straight decline, then edge higher after Fed policy statement

Investors have become very enthusiastic about the sock market in Apr.  The Dow has risen nearly 3K in Apr & that was pretty much a straight up advance (shown below).  Now more gloomy news is coming, between dreary economic data & earnings.  Of little notice, the FOMC had a routine meeting today.  Obviously nothing new was decided.  Stockholders are feeling good.  Tomorrow will begin with another dismal report on jobless claims.  The bulls are feeling good & will try to extend the Apr rally.

Dow Jones Industrials








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