Wednesday, April 1, 2020

Markets drop on fears coronavirus will worsen

Dow tumbled 470, decliners over advancers a massive 9-1 & NAZ dropped 144.  The MLP index fell 2+ to the 88s & the REIT index plunged 22 to the 285s.  Junk bond funds slid lower & Treasuries were heavily purchased.  Oil inched up pennies, holding above 20, & gold recovered 4 to 1601.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

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CL=FCrude Oil20.22  -0.26 -1.3%

GC=FGold   1,599.20
+2.60+0.2%






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US manufacturing activity contracted in Mar as the more than 800K cases of coronavirus have been confirmed.  The US is the country with the most confirmed cases, with over 189K.outbreak continues to pressure the economy, data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed.  The ISM manufacturing index fell to 49.1 last month from 50.1 in Feb.  Activity was driven down by a steep decline in new orders & production, the data showed.  Prices within the sector also contracted.  “The coronavirus pandemic and shocks in global energy markets have impacted all manufacturing sectors,” said the Institute for Supply Management, in a statement.  More than 800K cases of coronavirus have been confirmed around the world, according to Johns Hopkins University.  The US is the country with the most confirmed cases, with over 189K.

March’s ISM manufacturing index falls to 49.1 as virus hits economy

Companies reduced payrolls by 27K in early Mar before the worst of the coronavirus-induced economic freeze, according to a report  from ADP & Moody's Analytics.  Actual losses for the month were far worse as indicated by the Ms who already have filed unemployment claims.  The report covers the period thru Mar 12.  It was the first time the private payroll count had contracted in 10 years & total job losses probably will total 10-5M , said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's.  “It’s been 10 straight years of consistent, solid job growth, and the virus has put an end to that,” Zandi added.  “Much bigger job losses are coming.”  Just 6% of companies indicated they are hiring, a level worse than during the financial crisis & comparable to about 40% for a typical month, Zandi said.  The forecast called for a loss of 125K jobs.  However, the Mar ADP count as well as Fri's nonfarm payrolls report cover periods before the gov instituted social distancing measures that have shut down large parts of the US economy.  The Mar ADP number comes after a Feb gain of 179K, revised lower from the initially reported 183K.

ADP: Companies cut 27,000 jobs before the worst of the coronavirus shutdown hit

Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said he is talking with Congress about a potential infrastructure bill that would help boost the coronavirus-battered economy.  “As you know, the president has been very interested in infrastructure. This goes back to the campaign: The president very much wants to rebuild the country,” Mnuchin said.  “And with interest rates low, that’s something that’s very important to him.”  “We’ve been discussing this for the last year with the Democrats and the Republicans. I’ve had ongoing conversations with Richard Neal on this. And we’ll continue to have those conversations,” he added.  The secretary's comments came a day after Pres Trump called for the US to spend $2T on a massive infrastructure package.  In a tweet, he wrote that “this is the time” to craft an infrastructure overhaul with US interest rates at zero during the crisis.  “It should be VERY BIG & BOLD, Two Trillion Dollars, and be focused solely on jobs and rebuilding the once great infrastructure of our Country! Phase 4,” the pres said, referring to 3 pieces of emergency legislation lawmakers have already passed to help American workers deal with the COVID-19 contagion.  Any such infrastructure bill would follow an unprecedented, $2T relief package Congress passed last week.  That legislation includes one-time payments to individuals, strengthened unemployment insurance & additional health-care funding in an effort to blunt the toll the virus is taking on the economy.  Trump has long been a fan of revamping American roads, bridges & airports, declaring throughout his 2016 campaign that he'd make infrastructure reform a priority during his time in office.  “The only one to fix the infrastructure of our country is me - roads, airports, bridges,” Trump tweeted in 2015.  “I know how to build, [politicians] only know how to talk!”

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin says he’s having ongoing discussions about infrastructure

The bears have taken command of the stock market after last week's rally.  The Dow has recovered more than 200 from selling at the opening, but selling sentiment is strong.  Trump has signaled that Apr will be a very tough month for the economy while the country is fighting Coronavirus.  Even though spending on a massive infrastructure program sounds good, it will also add to inflation.  The first economic reports for Mar indicate times will continue for investors.

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