Dow shot up 339, advancers over decliners 5-2 & NAZ gained 206. The MLP index
& the REIT index recovered 9+ to the 341s. Junk bond funds were purchased & Treasuries rose in price. Oil sank 1+ to the 21s, its troubles are not over, & gold was off 2 to 1758, still near 9 year highs.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
The coronavirus pandemic will force the global economy to shrink by 3%, the steepest decline since the Great Depression close to a century ago, the IMF said. “It is very likely that this year the global economy will experience its worst recession since the Great Depression, surpassing that seen during the global financial crisis a decade ago,” Gita Gopinath, the IMF's chief economist, said in the 2020 World Economic Outlook report. It would also dwarf the 0.1% contraction in 2009 during the financial crisis. By comparison, in Jan, the IMF forecast a global GDP of 3.3% for the year. The IMF predicted a partial rebound in 2021, with the world economy growing at a 5.8% rate. Still, it cautioned that its forecasts were plagued by "extreme uncertainty," dependent on whether the virus fades in H2 & if policy actions are effective in preventing widespread bankruptcies, extended job losses & system-wide financial strains. Under the organization's best-case scenario, the cumulative loss to global GDP over 2020 & 2021 could be about $9T -- larger than the economies of Japan & Germany, combined. If the dual health & economic crises continue, the IMF said global GDP will plummet by an additional 8% in 2021. To contain the spread of COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the novel coronavirus, govs throughout the world have imposed strict lockdown measures, directing citizens to only leave their houses for activities deemed "essential," like grocery shopping. The result, which the IMF dubbed the "Great Lockdown," has been a global economy that's nearly paralyzed as businesses shutter their doors. “This crisis is like no other,” Gopinath wrote. “Like in a war or a political crisis, there is continued severe uncertainty about the duration and intensity of the shock.” According to the latest forecasts from the IMF, the US economy will contract by 5.9% this year, compared with a 2% growth expectation in the Jan outlook. The EU, meanwhile, could see growth drop by 7.5%. But China, the first nation to be struck by the virus, is expected to grow by 1.2% this year. “Many countries face a multi-layered crisis comprising a health shock, domestic economic disruptions, plummeting external demand, capital-flow reversals and a collapse in commodity prices,” the IMF added. “Risks of a worse outcome predominate.”
The likelihood of a "fairly severe recession" forced JPMorgan (JPM), a Dow stock & the largest US lender, to boost reserves against delinquent loans by $6.8B as the coronavirus pandemic shut down broad swaths of the US economy. “The first quarter delivered some unprecedented challenges and required us to focus on what we as a bank could do -- outside of our ordinary course of business -- to remain strong, resilient and well-positioned to support all of our stakeholders," CEO Jamie Dimon said. The buildout in credit reserves helped drag profits in Q1 down 69% to $2.87B (78¢ a share), JPM said. It was among the standouts of the 2008 financial crisis, working with the gov to acquire the beleaguered investment bank Bear Stearns &, later, the floundering consumer lender WaMu. The bank "has built its reputation on being there for clients, customers and communities in the most critical times," Dimon said. "This unprecedented environment is no different. We will do everything in our power to help the world recover from this global crisis." The community banking division, its largest, has kept about 75% of its 5K branches open, with heightened safety procedures to protect customers & employees from infection with the virus, Dimon added. The stock dropped 3.52.
If you would like to learn more about JPM, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/JPM?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7
China's exports fell 6.6% in Mar from a year earlier, while imports shrank 0.9%, a better than expected outcome as factories restarted production, though the global coronavirus health crisis looks set to keep trade under pressure over coming months. Customs data compared with the forecast for a 14% slump in exports. Shipments had dived 17.2% in Jan-Feb. Analysts had forecast a 9.5% contraction in imports, worsening from a slide of 4% in the first 2 months of the year. China posted a trade surplus of $19.9B last month, compared with the forecast for an $18.6B surplus & a reversal of Jan-Feb deficit of $7.1B.
Of little notice, earnings season is kicking off. Thoughts about today's rally, traders are hoping for good news. The news about the war against coronaviurs is getting better. But that will be measured one step at a time. The IMF forecast above is gloomy & JPM's report is hardly encouraging. For the time being, the bulls are back in charge of the stock market although that may not last.
Dow Jones Industrials
& the REIT index recovered 9+ to the 341s. Junk bond funds were purchased & Treasuries rose in price. Oil sank 1+ to the 21s, its troubles are not over, & gold was off 2 to 1758, still near 9 year highs.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
| CL=F | Crude Oil | 21.52 | -0.89 | -4.0% |
| GC=F | Gold | 1,784.70 | +23.30 | +1.3% |
The coronavirus pandemic will force the global economy to shrink by 3%, the steepest decline since the Great Depression close to a century ago, the IMF said. “It is very likely that this year the global economy will experience its worst recession since the Great Depression, surpassing that seen during the global financial crisis a decade ago,” Gita Gopinath, the IMF's chief economist, said in the 2020 World Economic Outlook report. It would also dwarf the 0.1% contraction in 2009 during the financial crisis. By comparison, in Jan, the IMF forecast a global GDP of 3.3% for the year. The IMF predicted a partial rebound in 2021, with the world economy growing at a 5.8% rate. Still, it cautioned that its forecasts were plagued by "extreme uncertainty," dependent on whether the virus fades in H2 & if policy actions are effective in preventing widespread bankruptcies, extended job losses & system-wide financial strains. Under the organization's best-case scenario, the cumulative loss to global GDP over 2020 & 2021 could be about $9T -- larger than the economies of Japan & Germany, combined. If the dual health & economic crises continue, the IMF said global GDP will plummet by an additional 8% in 2021. To contain the spread of COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the novel coronavirus, govs throughout the world have imposed strict lockdown measures, directing citizens to only leave their houses for activities deemed "essential," like grocery shopping. The result, which the IMF dubbed the "Great Lockdown," has been a global economy that's nearly paralyzed as businesses shutter their doors. “This crisis is like no other,” Gopinath wrote. “Like in a war or a political crisis, there is continued severe uncertainty about the duration and intensity of the shock.” According to the latest forecasts from the IMF, the US economy will contract by 5.9% this year, compared with a 2% growth expectation in the Jan outlook. The EU, meanwhile, could see growth drop by 7.5%. But China, the first nation to be struck by the virus, is expected to grow by 1.2% this year. “Many countries face a multi-layered crisis comprising a health shock, domestic economic disruptions, plummeting external demand, capital-flow reversals and a collapse in commodity prices,” the IMF added. “Risks of a worse outcome predominate.”
IMF: World to see worst slump since '30s
The likelihood of a "fairly severe recession" forced JPMorgan (JPM), a Dow stock & the largest US lender, to boost reserves against delinquent loans by $6.8B as the coronavirus pandemic shut down broad swaths of the US economy. “The first quarter delivered some unprecedented challenges and required us to focus on what we as a bank could do -- outside of our ordinary course of business -- to remain strong, resilient and well-positioned to support all of our stakeholders," CEO Jamie Dimon said. The buildout in credit reserves helped drag profits in Q1 down 69% to $2.87B (78¢ a share), JPM said. It was among the standouts of the 2008 financial crisis, working with the gov to acquire the beleaguered investment bank Bear Stearns &, later, the floundering consumer lender WaMu. The bank "has built its reputation on being there for clients, customers and communities in the most critical times," Dimon said. "This unprecedented environment is no different. We will do everything in our power to help the world recover from this global crisis." The community banking division, its largest, has kept about 75% of its 5K branches open, with heightened safety procedures to protect customers & employees from infection with the virus, Dimon added. The stock dropped 3.52.
If you would like to learn more about JPM, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/JPM?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7
JPMorgan profit shrinks, recession threat forces hike in loan reserves
China's exports fell 6.6% in Mar from a year earlier, while imports shrank 0.9%, a better than expected outcome as factories restarted production, though the global coronavirus health crisis looks set to keep trade under pressure over coming months. Customs data compared with the forecast for a 14% slump in exports. Shipments had dived 17.2% in Jan-Feb. Analysts had forecast a 9.5% contraction in imports, worsening from a slide of 4% in the first 2 months of the year. China posted a trade surplus of $19.9B last month, compared with the forecast for an $18.6B surplus & a reversal of Jan-Feb deficit of $7.1B.
China March exports slump slows to 6.6% year-on-year, imports down 0.9%
Of little notice, earnings season is kicking off. Thoughts about today's rally, traders are hoping for good news. The news about the war against coronaviurs is getting better. But that will be measured one step at a time. The IMF forecast above is gloomy & JPM's report is hardly encouraging. For the time being, the bulls are back in charge of the stock market although that may not last.
Dow Jones Industrials
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