Dow finished down 26 after being up almost 1K in early trading, advancers over decliners 3-1 (hard to believe) & NAZ fell 25. The MLP index added 2+ to the 97s & the REIT index added 2 to the 308s. Junk bond funds continued strong & Treasuries were sold. Oil gave back 1+ to the 24s & gold fell 14 to 1679 (more on both below).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin asked Congress to approve an additional $250B to replenish the fund for small business loans as thousands vie for the gov-backed aid. Mnuchin said he spoke with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi & House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy about securing the extra funding at the request of Pres Trump. McConnell said he will attempt to fast-track a vote on the additional funds for Thurs, as small businesses flood the 3-day-old program seeking emergency relief. The pending request would go toward a $349B small business program that was an integral part of the $2.2T coronavirus relief package passed at the end of Mar. Known as the Paycheck Protection Program, it's designed to get cash in the hands of struggling small businesses & incentivize them to keep staff on payroll, or re-hire workers who have already been laid off. Banks & the Small Business Administration have been flooded by applications since the program began operating on Fri. So far, more than 225K loans worth more than $60B have been processed by 3K lending institutions, according to a Small Business Administration official. Community banks continue to lead the way, while some of the nation's biggest banks are accepting applications, but have not yet processed the loans thru the SBA. “There was overwhelming interest, and we are working person by person to get the information we need to input (by hand) the information into the SBA system,” a spokesperson for JPMorgan Chase said. “We have thousands of bankers working with our small business customers to help them get the funds they need.” Wells Fargo did not begin accepting applications until Sat, & by Mon, said it hit the $10B limit it established for loans under the program.
More than ¼ of the US economy has suddenly gone offline as the coronavirus pandemic forces an unprecedented shutdown of business throughout the country, according to new research. The study, published by Moody's Analytics, found that while 8 in 10 US counties are under lockdown orders, they represent nearly 96% of national output. At least 41 states & DC have ordered some businesses to close, with just 4 states — Arkansas, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota & South Dakota — fully holding out from directing Americans to remain at home, according to Moody's. Restaurants, bars, hotels, gyms, beauty salons, entertainme not venues & other businesses deemed non-essential have been ordered to close. As a result, US economic output has plunged by roughly 29%, compared with the first week of Mar, before the country began shutting down. Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi, however, said that he does not believe the 29% monthly drop in daily output will be sustained over 2 more months, which he said could lead to a 75% drop in the nation's GDP during the 2nd qtr. Instead, he expects many counties to reopen before the summer & forecast a 30% decline in Q2 growth. Still, the magnitude of the drop in daily output is stunning: Between 1929 & 1933, during the Great Depression, annual output fell 26%. Quarterly output fell 4% between late 2007 & mid-2009, during the last recession. “This is a natural disaster,” Zandi said. “There’s nothing in the Great Depression that is analogous to what we’re experiencing now.” The US lost 701K jobs in Mar, the steepest one-month decline since 2009. Restaurants & bars accounted for a bulk of the losses, losing 417K positions alone last month. The Labor Dept’'s employment report, which is based on surveys conducted in the early weeks of the month, when large swaths of the economy had not yet shut down, does not fully reflect the depth of the economic calamity that the virus outbreak has inflicted. In the final 2 weeks of the month, 10M Americans applied for unemployment benefits.
New York City's death toll from the coronavirus eclipsed the number of those killed at the World Trade Center on 9/11, health officials said. In Britain, Prime Minister Boris Johnson was in intensive care with the virus. More than 3200 have died in New York from COVID-19, according to the count released by the city. The deadliest terror attack on US soil killed 2753 in the city & 2977 overall, when hijacked planes slammed into the twin towers, the Pentagon & a Pennsylvania field on Sep 11, 2001. New York state recorded 731 new coronavirus deaths, its biggest one-day jump yet, for a statewide toll of nearly 5500, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said. “Behind every one of those numbers is an individual. There’s a family, there’s a mother, there’s a father, there’s a sister, there’s a brother. So a lot of pain again today for many New Yorkers,” he added. But in an encouraging sign, Cuomo reported that hospital admissions and the number of those receiving breathing tubes are dropping, indicating that measures taken to force people to keep their distance from one another are succeeding. And alarming as the one-day increase in deaths might sound, the governor said that's a “lagging indicator,” reflecting severely ill people who had been hospitalized before this week. Over the past several days, in fact, the number of deaths in New York appeared to be leveling off. “You see that plateauing — that’s because of what we are doing. If we don’t do what we are doing, that is a much different curve,” he said. “So social distancing is working.” Across the US, the death toll topped 11K, with around 370K confirmed infections. Some of the deadliest hot spots included Detroit, New Orleans & the New York metropolitan area, which includes parts of Long Island, New Jersey & Connecticut. In London, the 55-year-old Johnson, the world’s first head of gov known to have fallen ill with the virus, was in stable condition & conscious at a hospital, where he was receiving oxygen but was not on a ventilator, said his spokesman. Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab was designated to run the country in the meantime. “We’re desperately hoping that Boris can make the speediest possible recovery,” said Cabinet minister Michael Gove, who is among scores of British officials in self-isolation. Elsewhere around the world, Japan's prime minister declared a state of emergency for Tokyo & 6 other regions after a spike in infections, but it was a stay-at-home request — not an order — & violators will not be penalized. Japan has relatively few infections & deaths but has the world's oldest population, & the elderly have proved especially vulnerable to the virus.
As the Trump administration & congressional leaders push forward with another stimulus package to prop up the US economy during the coronavirus pandemic, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has told Dems that a 4th relief plan will be at least another $1T. She vowed to put together the package in time for a House vote this month. The House & Senate aren't scheduled to be back in session until at least Apr 20, but it's possible to pass legislation with most members out of town, so long as no one objects. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said that there will be another package & that health care must be at the “top of the list.” He also said Congress needs to focus on correcting any shortcomings in the earlier aid bill.
Gold futures settled lower, giving up earlier gains that saw the metal top $1700 an ounce to reach its highest intraday level since 2012. Jun gold declined by $10 (0.6%) to settle at $1683 an ounce, after jumping 2.9% in the previous session. It touched an intraday high of $1742 today, the highest intraday mark for a most-active contract since late 2012.
Oil futures gave up earlier gains to settle lower, pressured after a US gov report lowered its US & global benchmark price forecasts & outlook for domestic production for this year & next. Traders also weighed prospects for a global output cut when major producers hold a virtual meeting later this week. The outlook for prices looked more bearish after the Energy Information Administration lowered its 2020 forecast for West Texas Intermediate & Brent crude oil prices, according to the Short-Term Energy Outlook report released today. The gov agency also cut its expectations for 2020 US crude-oil production by 9.5% to 11.7M barrels a day—less than some may have expected. West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery fell $2.45 (9.4%) to settle at $23.63 a barrel. Jun Brent crude, meanwhile, lost $1.18 (3.6%) to $31.87 a barrel. News reports said Saudi Arabia & Russia were making progress toward an agreement that would curb production, ending a price war that has flooded the world with unneeded crude & filled storage tanks even as demand evaporated as major economies shut down in an effort to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. Major oil producers are scheduled to hold a virtual meeting on Thurs.It was reported that OPEC+ will only agree to deep output cuts if the US & others joint in with the output curbs, while the Energy Dept said that domestic output was already falling without gov action.
The Dow was strong in the first hour of trading, then sellers came in. Trading was volatile with some traders taking profits. The war over coronavirus may have taken a turn for the better. But that is not clear & even if correct, recovery will take a lot of time. The economy keeps stumbling with dismal repoprts as seen above in the output report. Thurs draws near when the next jobless claims report will update data & that promises to be dreary. The economy is in a severe depression even though the time frame is not measured in years like in the 1930s. This is a depression which is why the gov is throwing money around to start a recovery. Additionally, there was a report that Japan is considering a $1T spending program to help its economy. These are tough times for everybody & nervous investors keep buying gold.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin asked Congress to approve an additional $250B to replenish the fund for small business loans as thousands vie for the gov-backed aid. Mnuchin said he spoke with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi & House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy about securing the extra funding at the request of Pres Trump. McConnell said he will attempt to fast-track a vote on the additional funds for Thurs, as small businesses flood the 3-day-old program seeking emergency relief. The pending request would go toward a $349B small business program that was an integral part of the $2.2T coronavirus relief package passed at the end of Mar. Known as the Paycheck Protection Program, it's designed to get cash in the hands of struggling small businesses & incentivize them to keep staff on payroll, or re-hire workers who have already been laid off. Banks & the Small Business Administration have been flooded by applications since the program began operating on Fri. So far, more than 225K loans worth more than $60B have been processed by 3K lending institutions, according to a Small Business Administration official. Community banks continue to lead the way, while some of the nation's biggest banks are accepting applications, but have not yet processed the loans thru the SBA. “There was overwhelming interest, and we are working person by person to get the information we need to input (by hand) the information into the SBA system,” a spokesperson for JPMorgan Chase said. “We have thousands of bankers working with our small business customers to help them get the funds they need.” Wells Fargo did not begin accepting applications until Sat, & by Mon, said it hit the $10B limit it established for loans under the program.
Treasury's Mnuchin asking for $250B to replenish small business loan program
More than ¼ of the US economy has suddenly gone offline as the coronavirus pandemic forces an unprecedented shutdown of business throughout the country, according to new research. The study, published by Moody's Analytics, found that while 8 in 10 US counties are under lockdown orders, they represent nearly 96% of national output. At least 41 states & DC have ordered some businesses to close, with just 4 states — Arkansas, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota & South Dakota — fully holding out from directing Americans to remain at home, according to Moody's. Restaurants, bars, hotels, gyms, beauty salons, entertainme not venues & other businesses deemed non-essential have been ordered to close. As a result, US economic output has plunged by roughly 29%, compared with the first week of Mar, before the country began shutting down. Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi, however, said that he does not believe the 29% monthly drop in daily output will be sustained over 2 more months, which he said could lead to a 75% drop in the nation's GDP during the 2nd qtr. Instead, he expects many counties to reopen before the summer & forecast a 30% decline in Q2 growth. Still, the magnitude of the drop in daily output is stunning: Between 1929 & 1933, during the Great Depression, annual output fell 26%. Quarterly output fell 4% between late 2007 & mid-2009, during the last recession. “This is a natural disaster,” Zandi said. “There’s nothing in the Great Depression that is analogous to what we’re experiencing now.” The US lost 701K jobs in Mar, the steepest one-month decline since 2009. Restaurants & bars accounted for a bulk of the losses, losing 417K positions alone last month. The Labor Dept’'s employment report, which is based on surveys conducted in the early weeks of the month, when large swaths of the economy had not yet shut down, does not fully reflect the depth of the economic calamity that the virus outbreak has inflicted. In the final 2 weeks of the month, 10M Americans applied for unemployment benefits.
US economic output plunges by 29%
New York City's death toll from the coronavirus eclipsed the number of those killed at the World Trade Center on 9/11, health officials said. In Britain, Prime Minister Boris Johnson was in intensive care with the virus. More than 3200 have died in New York from COVID-19, according to the count released by the city. The deadliest terror attack on US soil killed 2753 in the city & 2977 overall, when hijacked planes slammed into the twin towers, the Pentagon & a Pennsylvania field on Sep 11, 2001. New York state recorded 731 new coronavirus deaths, its biggest one-day jump yet, for a statewide toll of nearly 5500, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said. “Behind every one of those numbers is an individual. There’s a family, there’s a mother, there’s a father, there’s a sister, there’s a brother. So a lot of pain again today for many New Yorkers,” he added. But in an encouraging sign, Cuomo reported that hospital admissions and the number of those receiving breathing tubes are dropping, indicating that measures taken to force people to keep their distance from one another are succeeding. And alarming as the one-day increase in deaths might sound, the governor said that's a “lagging indicator,” reflecting severely ill people who had been hospitalized before this week. Over the past several days, in fact, the number of deaths in New York appeared to be leveling off. “You see that plateauing — that’s because of what we are doing. If we don’t do what we are doing, that is a much different curve,” he said. “So social distancing is working.” Across the US, the death toll topped 11K, with around 370K confirmed infections. Some of the deadliest hot spots included Detroit, New Orleans & the New York metropolitan area, which includes parts of Long Island, New Jersey & Connecticut. In London, the 55-year-old Johnson, the world’s first head of gov known to have fallen ill with the virus, was in stable condition & conscious at a hospital, where he was receiving oxygen but was not on a ventilator, said his spokesman. Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab was designated to run the country in the meantime. “We’re desperately hoping that Boris can make the speediest possible recovery,” said Cabinet minister Michael Gove, who is among scores of British officials in self-isolation. Elsewhere around the world, Japan's prime minister declared a state of emergency for Tokyo & 6 other regions after a spike in infections, but it was a stay-at-home request — not an order — & violators will not be penalized. Japan has relatively few infections & deaths but has the world's oldest population, & the elderly have proved especially vulnerable to the virus.
New York sees deadliest day for virus
As the Trump administration & congressional leaders push forward with another stimulus package to prop up the US economy during the coronavirus pandemic, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has told Dems that a 4th relief plan will be at least another $1T. She vowed to put together the package in time for a House vote this month. The House & Senate aren't scheduled to be back in session until at least Apr 20, but it's possible to pass legislation with most members out of town, so long as no one objects. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said that there will be another package & that health care must be at the “top of the list.” He also said Congress needs to focus on correcting any shortcomings in the earlier aid bill.
Pelosi says fourth coronavirus stimulus package could cost $1T
Gold futures settled lower, giving up earlier gains that saw the metal top $1700 an ounce to reach its highest intraday level since 2012. Jun gold declined by $10 (0.6%) to settle at $1683 an ounce, after jumping 2.9% in the previous session. It touched an intraday high of $1742 today, the highest intraday mark for a most-active contract since late 2012.
Gold ends lower after topping $1,700 to tap highest intraday level since late 2012
Oil futures gave up earlier gains to settle lower, pressured after a US gov report lowered its US & global benchmark price forecasts & outlook for domestic production for this year & next. Traders also weighed prospects for a global output cut when major producers hold a virtual meeting later this week. The outlook for prices looked more bearish after the Energy Information Administration lowered its 2020 forecast for West Texas Intermediate & Brent crude oil prices, according to the Short-Term Energy Outlook report released today. The gov agency also cut its expectations for 2020 US crude-oil production by 9.5% to 11.7M barrels a day—less than some may have expected. West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery fell $2.45 (9.4%) to settle at $23.63 a barrel. Jun Brent crude, meanwhile, lost $1.18 (3.6%) to $31.87 a barrel. News reports said Saudi Arabia & Russia were making progress toward an agreement that would curb production, ending a price war that has flooded the world with unneeded crude & filled storage tanks even as demand evaporated as major economies shut down in an effort to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. Major oil producers are scheduled to hold a virtual meeting on Thurs.It was reported that OPEC+ will only agree to deep output cuts if the US & others joint in with the output curbs, while the Energy Dept said that domestic output was already falling without gov action.
Oil ends lower as EIA cuts price forecasts and traders weigh prospects for a global output cut
The Dow was strong in the first hour of trading, then sellers came in. Trading was volatile with some traders taking profits. The war over coronavirus may have taken a turn for the better. But that is not clear & even if correct, recovery will take a lot of time. The economy keeps stumbling with dismal repoprts as seen above in the output report. Thurs draws near when the next jobless claims report will update data & that promises to be dreary. The economy is in a severe depression even though the time frame is not measured in years like in the 1930s. This is a depression which is why the gov is throwing money around to start a recovery. Additionally, there was a report that Japan is considering a $1T spending program to help its economy. These are tough times for everybody & nervous investors keep buying gold.
Dow Jones Industrials
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