Dow skyrocketed a whopping 1627 (at session highs), advancers over decliners 10-1 & NAZ soared a staggering 540. The MLP index rose 12+ to the 95s & the REIT index shot up 19 to 303s. Junk bond funds had nice gains while Treasuries were in heavy demand. Oil sank 2+ to the 26s on concerns about production cuts (more below) & gold jumped up 67 to 1713 (near multi year highs).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
The Trump administration & Congress have begun deliberations on a 4th aid plan intended to alleviate economic pain caused by the coronavirus pandemic. In recent days, White House officials have discussed pitching a payroll-tax cut, a capital-gains tax cut, creating 50-year Treasury bonds & a waiver that would clear businesses of liability from workers who contract COVID-19, the respiratory illness caused by the novel coronavirus, on the job, a senior administration official confirmed. But the proposals are very preliminary & do not reflect any sort of presidential direction beyond what Pres Trump has already mentioned. Last week, Trump called for a $2T infrastructure bill focused on jobs & rebuilding the nation's crumbling bridges & roads that he said would serve as "phase 4." Trump's chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow told reporters at the White House that he's discussed the possibility of a coronavirus-related Treasury bond to raise cash for relief efforts. "We’re just looking at it,” he said. “Let’s see where it leads." Dems have pushed for another round of aid, as well, with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi pushing for more money for states, free coronavirus treatment, worker protections & expanded paid family & sick leave. But Pelosi is publicly at odds with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell & other Senate Reps, who have taken a wait-&-see approach to additional legislative help. "I think we’ll have to wait and see," McConnell said last week. "Remember, this bill was only signed into law last Friday. So it’s only been law for about four days. And the Speaker is already talking about another bill."
Russia is ready to reduce its production very substantially to prop up weak oil, according to 2 Russian source, without giving precise numbers. They spoke as OPEC & other producers, known as OPEC+, plan to hold a video conference on Thurs to discuss how to support the oil market. The Russian energy ministry did not respond immediately to a request for comment. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters earlier today that Moscow was ready to work with other leading oil exporting countries. A gov & an industry source, speaking on condition of anonymity, also said total cuts of 10M barrels per day proposed so far might not be enough to steady the global oil market given the weakness of demand following lockdowns to curb the spread of the new coronavirus. Last week, Russian Pres Vladimir Putin said OPEC+ cuts could amount to around 10M barrels per day (bpd), or some 10% of global output. Russian production reached 11.3M bpd in Mar.
Pres Trump's chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow suggested the US economy could bounce back from the coronavirus pandemic within 4-8 weeks, as the federal gov commits Ts of $ to protect workers & businesses from the health crisis. "I still believe, given our assistance package, and hope and maybe pray that we're at a four- to eight-week period, we can get a pretty good snapback. A good snapback," Kudlow told reporters. "That's my hope." The US has the highest number of confirmed cases of COVID-19, the respiratory illness caused by the novel coronavirus, with over 337K infected, according to Johns Hopkins University data. More than 9600 people in the country have died from the virus. The depth of the economic downturn is still unknown, but early data indicates it will be severe: In the final 2 weeks of the month, a record-shattering 10M Americans applied for unemployment benefits, surging past the levels seen during the worst of the 2008 financial crisis. Restaurants, bars, hotels, airlines, cruise lines, automakers & entertainment venues have been hit hard by the pandemic as a growing number of jurisdictions have ordered the closure of nonessential businesses & directed residents to stay at home. Estimates vary drastically for how high unemployment will climb, but economists broadly agree that it will be grim. An analysis published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis last week projected that unemployment could hit 32% in Q2 as more than 47M workers are laid off because of the pandemic. That would exceed the 25% peak during the Great Depression. "The sooner we begin to reopen, the faster that snapback is going to be," Kudlow added. "We came into this with a very strong economy. It got interrupted by the virus, if that's the right word. if this thing can be stabilized fairly soon, yes I do think we'll snap back. It may be more of a prayer than I hope, I understand that, but I'm an optimist."
Americans' outlook on the economy deteriorated significantly in Mar as the coronavirus pandemic took hold in the US, forcing cities and states to take unprecedented measures to contain the outbreak. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said in its latest Survey of Consumer Expectations that among Americans, the perceived probability of losing unemployment jumped to 18.5%, the highest level recorded since the survey started in 2013. A majority of those surveyed said they expect unemployment to rise over the next year. The probability of finding a new job over the same time period fell to 53%, from Feb's 58.7%. According to the bank, “the drop was broad-based across age, education and income groups.” The survey also included a sharp decline in expectations for growth in income & spending, while expectations for home price gains fell to just 1.3%, another record low. The report was conducted between Mar 2 & Mar 31, when jurisdictions across the country directed Ms to stay at home & forced nonessential businesses to shut down to mitigate the spread of COVID-19, the respiratory illness caused by the novel coronavirus. Altogether, about 250M Americans (75% of the country) are under strict orders to stay at home. Consumer confidence has nosedived as the 11-year economic expansion abruptly came to an end. The depth of the economic downturn is still unknown, but early data indicates it will be severe: In the final 2 weeks of the month, a record-shattering 10M Americans applied for unemployment benefits, surging past the levels seen during the worst of the 2008 financial crisis. The jobless rate rose to 4.4% from 3.5% in Mar, the fastest one-month pace since 1975 & could rise as high as 10% in Apr, some economists have suggested.
Oil futures settled with a loss, with US prices down for the first time in 3 sessions. A key meeting of major oil producers that was originally expected today was pushed to Thurs, contributing to uncertainty in the market as traders await news potential crude production cuts. May West Texas Intermediate oil fell $2.26 (8%) to settle at $26.08 a barrel following 2 consecutive sessions of gains.
As has become common in recent weeks, stocks had another wild day. This time buyers came out in force, bidding up stock prices & never looked back. Investors hope for good news on fighting coronavbirus. However, news on winning this war will take time. NY has been the hardest in the US. While everybody hopes its data is reaching an apex, that is still a big unknown. Even if this turns out to be the high point for the virus, dreary numbers will be around for some time. Given the enormous gains today, profit taking can be expected tomorrow & potentially after. Meanwhile gold soared. Investors with negative thinking about the recovery are buying gold. Stocks & gold were not meant to surge simultaneously.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
The Trump administration & Congress have begun deliberations on a 4th aid plan intended to alleviate economic pain caused by the coronavirus pandemic. In recent days, White House officials have discussed pitching a payroll-tax cut, a capital-gains tax cut, creating 50-year Treasury bonds & a waiver that would clear businesses of liability from workers who contract COVID-19, the respiratory illness caused by the novel coronavirus, on the job, a senior administration official confirmed. But the proposals are very preliminary & do not reflect any sort of presidential direction beyond what Pres Trump has already mentioned. Last week, Trump called for a $2T infrastructure bill focused on jobs & rebuilding the nation's crumbling bridges & roads that he said would serve as "phase 4." Trump's chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow told reporters at the White House that he's discussed the possibility of a coronavirus-related Treasury bond to raise cash for relief efforts. "We’re just looking at it,” he said. “Let’s see where it leads." Dems have pushed for another round of aid, as well, with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi pushing for more money for states, free coronavirus treatment, worker protections & expanded paid family & sick leave. But Pelosi is publicly at odds with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell & other Senate Reps, who have taken a wait-&-see approach to additional legislative help. "I think we’ll have to wait and see," McConnell said last week. "Remember, this bill was only signed into law last Friday. So it’s only been law for about four days. And the Speaker is already talking about another bill."
What could be included in fourth coronavirus stimulus package
Russia is ready to reduce its production very substantially to prop up weak oil, according to 2 Russian source, without giving precise numbers. They spoke as OPEC & other producers, known as OPEC+, plan to hold a video conference on Thurs to discuss how to support the oil market. The Russian energy ministry did not respond immediately to a request for comment. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters earlier today that Moscow was ready to work with other leading oil exporting countries. A gov & an industry source, speaking on condition of anonymity, also said total cuts of 10M barrels per day proposed so far might not be enough to steady the global oil market given the weakness of demand following lockdowns to curb the spread of the new coronavirus. Last week, Russian Pres Vladimir Putin said OPEC+ cuts could amount to around 10M barrels per day (bpd), or some 10% of global output. Russian production reached 11.3M bpd in Mar.
Russia ready to cut oil output
Pres Trump's chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow suggested the US economy could bounce back from the coronavirus pandemic within 4-8 weeks, as the federal gov commits Ts of $ to protect workers & businesses from the health crisis. "I still believe, given our assistance package, and hope and maybe pray that we're at a four- to eight-week period, we can get a pretty good snapback. A good snapback," Kudlow told reporters. "That's my hope." The US has the highest number of confirmed cases of COVID-19, the respiratory illness caused by the novel coronavirus, with over 337K infected, according to Johns Hopkins University data. More than 9600 people in the country have died from the virus. The depth of the economic downturn is still unknown, but early data indicates it will be severe: In the final 2 weeks of the month, a record-shattering 10M Americans applied for unemployment benefits, surging past the levels seen during the worst of the 2008 financial crisis. Restaurants, bars, hotels, airlines, cruise lines, automakers & entertainment venues have been hit hard by the pandemic as a growing number of jurisdictions have ordered the closure of nonessential businesses & directed residents to stay at home. Estimates vary drastically for how high unemployment will climb, but economists broadly agree that it will be grim. An analysis published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis last week projected that unemployment could hit 32% in Q2 as more than 47M workers are laid off because of the pandemic. That would exceed the 25% peak during the Great Depression. "The sooner we begin to reopen, the faster that snapback is going to be," Kudlow added. "We came into this with a very strong economy. It got interrupted by the virus, if that's the right word. if this thing can be stabilized fairly soon, yes I do think we'll snap back. It may be more of a prayer than I hope, I understand that, but I'm an optimist."
Kudlow says US economy could 'snap back' from coronavirus crisis
Americans' outlook on the economy deteriorated significantly in Mar as the coronavirus pandemic took hold in the US, forcing cities and states to take unprecedented measures to contain the outbreak. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said in its latest Survey of Consumer Expectations that among Americans, the perceived probability of losing unemployment jumped to 18.5%, the highest level recorded since the survey started in 2013. A majority of those surveyed said they expect unemployment to rise over the next year. The probability of finding a new job over the same time period fell to 53%, from Feb's 58.7%. According to the bank, “the drop was broad-based across age, education and income groups.” The survey also included a sharp decline in expectations for growth in income & spending, while expectations for home price gains fell to just 1.3%, another record low. The report was conducted between Mar 2 & Mar 31, when jurisdictions across the country directed Ms to stay at home & forced nonessential businesses to shut down to mitigate the spread of COVID-19, the respiratory illness caused by the novel coronavirus. Altogether, about 250M Americans (75% of the country) are under strict orders to stay at home. Consumer confidence has nosedived as the 11-year economic expansion abruptly came to an end. The depth of the economic downturn is still unknown, but early data indicates it will be severe: In the final 2 weeks of the month, a record-shattering 10M Americans applied for unemployment benefits, surging past the levels seen during the worst of the 2008 financial crisis. The jobless rate rose to 4.4% from 3.5% in Mar, the fastest one-month pace since 1975 & could rise as high as 10% in Apr, some economists have suggested.
Consumer expectations plunge as coronavirus drags on economy
Oil futures settled with a loss, with US prices down for the first time in 3 sessions. A key meeting of major oil producers that was originally expected today was pushed to Thurs, contributing to uncertainty in the market as traders await news potential crude production cuts. May West Texas Intermediate oil fell $2.26 (8%) to settle at $26.08 a barrel following 2 consecutive sessions of gains.
U.S. oil prices mark first loss in 3 sessions
As has become common in recent weeks, stocks had another wild day. This time buyers came out in force, bidding up stock prices & never looked back. Investors hope for good news on fighting coronavbirus. However, news on winning this war will take time. NY has been the hardest in the US. While everybody hopes its data is reaching an apex, that is still a big unknown. Even if this turns out to be the high point for the virus, dreary numbers will be around for some time. Given the enormous gains today, profit taking can be expected tomorrow & potentially after. Meanwhile gold soared. Investors with negative thinking about the recovery are buying gold. Stocks & gold were not meant to surge simultaneously.
Dow Jones Industrials
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