Tuesday, March 31, 2020

Markets fall as oil posts record decline for the quarter

Dow sank 410 (closing below 22K). decliners over advancers 4-3 & NAZ dropped 74.  The MLP index went up 6+ to a depressed 90 & the REIT index dropped 7 to the 308s.  Junk bond funds rose in price.& Treasuries were sold to bring higher yields.  Oil slid lower, nearing $20 a barrel, & gold tumbled 48 to 1594 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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Pres Trump said that federal lawmakers should pass a $2T bill that would renovate the nation's roads, bridges & airports as part of the next stimulus bill Congress seeks to pass amid the novel coronavirus pandemic. "With interest rates for the United States being at ZERO, this is the time to do our decades long awaited Infrastructure Bill. It should be VERY BIG & BOLD, Two Trillion Dollars, and be focused solely on jobs and rebuilding the once great infrastructure of our Country! Phase 4," Trump tweeted.  House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says she wants the House to be ready as soon as it returns to approve a 4th bill boosting the economy & strengthening the response to the virus.  Pelosi & 2 House committee chairmen told reporters they want the package to improve broadband & water infrastructure, bolster hospitals & state & local govs & extend direct payments to Americans.  They said it should also strengthen safety requirements for first responders & medical workers & broaden workers' leave for caring for relatives.  The House on Fri approved the $2.2T economic relief bill that Trump has signed & plans to return on Apr 20.

What Trump wants to see in next round of $2T coronavirus stimulus


Less than a week after Ford (F) said it would restart production at “key” plants in North America beginning in early-Apr, the company has postponed those plans as the coronavirus continues to spread throughout the US.  Ford is delaying the restart of a car plant in Mexico as well as 4 truck, SUV & van plants in the US ” to help protect its workers.”  The company declined to provide a new timeline for reopening the plants.  “The health and safety of our workforce, dealers, customers, partners and communities remains our highest priority,” said Kumar Galhotra, Ford pres of North America.  “We are working very closely with union leaders – especially at the UAW – to develop additional health and safety procedures aimed at helping keep our workforce safe and healthy.”  When Ford initially announced plans to reopen the plants last week, UAW Pres Rory Gamble said the union was reviewing the plans “with great caution and concern.”  Several UAW members with the automakers have died from COVID-19, including 2 Ford workers over the weekend.  Urged by the UAW, Ford, Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) & General Motors (GM) announced plans to temporarily shutter their plants due to the coronavirus on Mar 18.  Ford & FCAU last week announced plans to begin restarting production in Apr, while GM has suspended the restart indefinitely.  Ford's postponement comes 2 days after Pres Trump  extended national social-distancing guidelines to combat the spread of the coronavirus thru Apr.  A company spokeswoman said Ford will “continue to assess public health conditions, government guidelines and supplier readiness” to determine when the time is right to resume production.  Several automakers yesterday, including Ford, FCAU & Toyota (TM) said they would continue with plans to restart US production in Apr, but execs were actively monitoring & assessing the situation.

Ford postpones reopening ‘key’ plants due to coronavirus pandemic

Huawei's chairman warned that more US moves to increase pressure on the Chinese tech giant might trigger retaliation by Beijing that could damage its worldwide industry.  Huawei which makes smartphones & network equipment, reported that its 2019 sales rose by double digits despite curbs imposed in May on its access to US components & technology.  But the chairman, Eric Xu, said 2020 will be its “most difficult year” as Huawei struggles with the sanctions & the coronavirus pandemic.  Huawei is at the center of tensions with DC over China's technology ambitions & possible spying that helped to spark Trump's tariff war with Beijing in 2018.  Xu said he couldn't confirm news reports Pres Trump might try to extend controls to block access to foreign-made products that contain US technology.  He added that Huawei can find other sources but warned more pressure might trigger Chinese retaliation against American companies.  “I think the Chinese government will not just stand by and watch Huawei be slaughtered,” Xu said.  He said US pressure on foreign suppliers “will be destructive to the global technology ecosystem.”  “If the Chinese government followed through with countermeasures, the impact on the global industry would be astonishing,” Xu continued.  “It’s not only going to be one company, Huawei, that could be destroyed.”  Huawei, China's first global tech brand, denies US accusations the company is controlled by the ruling Communist Party or facilitates Chinese spying.  The company says it is owned by the 104K members of its 194K-member workforce who are Chinese citizens.  Chinese officials say the Trump administration is abusing national security claims to restrain a rival to US tech companies.  Last year's sales rose 19.1% over 2018 to 89B yuan ($123B), in line with the previous year's 19.5% gain.   Profit increased 5.6% to 62.7B yuan ($9B), decelerating from 2018's 25% jump.

China's Huawei warns more US pressure may spur retaliation


Gold futures ended sharply lower, pressured by better-than-expected US consumer confidence data & a rise in Chinese manufacturing activity, but prices for the metal posted gains for the month & qtr against the backdrop of concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic.  An index of consumer confidence fell to 120 in Mar, from a revised 132.6 in Feb, but some forecasts called for a fall to 115.  Meanwhile, data out of China showed signs of a modest economic rebound.  China's manufacturing gauge for the Mar official purchasing managers survey rose to 52, from a record low of 35.7 in the previous month as factories resumed work following monthslong shutdown.  Jun gold lost $46 (2.8%) to settle at $1596 an ounce—the lowest finish in just over a week.  The contract was up 1.6% from its finish at $1571 on Feb 28.  Based on the most-active contracts, gold futures rose 1.9% for the month & gained 4.8% for the qtr.  Overall, however, trading for precious metals has been marked by concerns about the rapidly moving infection, COVID-19, which was first identified in Wuhan, China in Dec, but has infected more than 800K people & claimed nearly 39K lives world-wide, according to data aggregated by Johns Hopkins University.

Gold ends sharply lower, but posts gains for the month and quarter


US oil futures settled slightly higher, finding some support after China reported strong manufacturing data & Pres Trump spoke with Russia about efforts to fight the spread of the coronavirus pandemic & stabilize the crude market.  But oil prices for the US & global crude benchmarks suffered the largest quarterly percentage declines on record & lost more than ½ their value for the month amid a demand slump caused by the coronavirus pandemic & a glut of supply thanks to a Russia-Saudi oil-price war.  Prices had settled yesterday at their lowest level since 2002.  China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers index rose to 52.0 in Mar from a record low of 35.7 in Feb, the National Bureau of Statistics said.  Trump spoke by phone with Russian Pres Vladimir Putin yesterday about the latest developments & efforts to combat the coronavirus.  They both agreed on the importance of stability in the global energy markets & to work together through the G-20 to defeat the virus.  May West Texas Intermediate crude tacked on 39¢ (1.9%) to settle at $20.48 a barrel.  Prices based on front-month WTI crude fell by 54.2% this month, the largest one-month decline since 2008.  For the qtr, prices lost 66.5% to post the largest qtr percentage loss based on records dating back to 1983.  Meanwhile, the global benchmark on ICE Futures Europe, May Brent crude fell 2¢ at $22.74 a barrel on the contract's expiration day.  For the month, prices fell 55%, tallying a loss of 65.6% for the qtr—the largest quarterly decline based on records dating to 1988. The new front month Jun Brent shed 7¢ to $26.35 today.  Yesterday, WTI marked its lowest finish since 2002, while Brent saw its lowest settlement also in 2002.  The slight rebound today came even as US benchmark stock indices moved lower.  Equities had seen an upbeat session on yesterday, driven by health-care stocks & hopes for a vaccine.

Crude-oil prices post the largest quarterly percentage drop on record

This has been an awful month & qtr for stocks.  The Dow dropped 3500 in Mar & an astounding 6600 in Q1.  Additionally, oil had a dreadful time.  Comments mean little.  Investors have to adjust to the new world everbody has to deal with.  A lot of healing is needed & hepefully that will come fairly soon.  

Dow Jones Industrials








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