Thursday, March 12, 2020

Markets plunge again after a 15 minute circuit breaker halt

Dow dropped an astounding 1747 (below 22K), there were only 42 advancers in this rout & NAZ tumbled 482 (below 7.5K).  The MLP index dropped 18 to 101 (it started at 100 about 25 years ago) & the REIT index sank a stunning 32 to 336.  Junk bond funds tumbled along with stocks & Treasuries were in heavy demand  taking the yield on the 10 year Treasury below 0.7%.  Oil dropped 1+ to the 31s & gold sank a huge 59 to 1582.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil30.70
  -2.28-6.9%

GC=FGold   1,591.10
-51.20-3.1%






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Equity markets cratered after Pres Trump suspended travel from Europe for 30 days in an effort to contain the spread of the coronavirus pandemic.  Equity markets were halted shortly after the opening bell when the S&P fell by 7%.  Trading, which will resume after a 15-minute stoppage, will be halted a 2nd time if the S&P 500 falls to a loss of 13%.  The Dow tumbled 1726 (7.4%) at the open while the NAZ slid back 7%.  “We made a lifesaving move with early action on China,” Trump said as he explained the European ban, which excludes the UK, in an Oval Office address last night.  “Now we must take the same action with Europe.”  COVID-19 has infected almost 15K & killed 702 in Italy, France, Spain & Germany, according to the latest update from the World Health Organization.  Treasuries surged, pushing the yield on the 10-year note down a whopping 18.4 basis points to 0.688%.  Earlier this week, the benchmark yield touched a record low of 0.38%.  European markets were hammered, with Britain's FTSE plunging 7% & both Germany's DAX & France's CAC 40 down by more than 6%.  Overnight, markets ended sharply lower across Asia.  Japan's Nikkei tumbled 4.4%  while Hong Kong's Hang Seng & China's Shanghai Composite shed 3.7% & 1.5%, respectively.

Stocks resume trading after S&P falls, Dow plunges 1,800+ points


Dems in the House unveiled a broad package of proposals to help Americans affected by the coronavirus outbreak, while officials suspended public tours thru the Capitol building.  The legislation, which Dem leaders aimed to rush to the House floor for debate & passage today, would grant workers 14 days of paid sick leave & up to 3 months of paid family & medical leave, a summary of the bill shows.  Other provisions in the 124-page "Families First Coronavirus Response Act" introduced yesterday include unemployment insurance to furloughed workers & hundreds of M$ in additional funding for children's, seniors' and other federal nutrition programs.  An additional $500M would be provided to help feed low-income pregnant women or mothers with young children who lose their jobs or are laid off because of the virus outbreak.  Another $400M would help local food banks meet increased demand.  The legislation also would guarantee free coronavirus testing for anyone who requires it, including uninsured people.  Dems introduced the measure as Pres Trump announced he would suspend travel for Europe to the US in his latest bid to contain the coronavirus.  Meanwhile, a Capitol official confirmed that the spreading coronavirus prompted a decision to temporarily stop tourist visits, although the landmark building will remain open for legislative business.  If passed by the House and Senate and approved by Trump, the House's bill would result in "billions" of $s of federal funds being dispensed, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer said.

House leaders unveil coronavirus bill


House Republicans made clear that they won’t support the new emergency coronavirus aid bill unveiled by Dems last night — at least not in its current form.  Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are scrambling to take action to combat the spread of the deadly coronavirus, which the World Health Organization yesterday declared a pandemic.  But Reps have hang-ups with the specifics of the Dems' bill because it omits several of the measures Pres Trump had called on Congress to enact.  A report said that House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy opposed the bill.  McCarthy was expected to explain his problems with the bill in public remarks shortly.  He called the plan “unworkable” in a tweet earlier today & complained that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi had introduced the “completely partisan” bill late at night.  Dem House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's spokesman responded on Twitter that McCarthy's claim was “not true.”  “Minority staffs of committees of jurisdiction were given language yesterday afternoon” and had already requested changes, he tweeted.  Meanwhile, Pelosi continued negotiations with Trump's Treasury Secretary, Steve Mnuchin, which had begun earlier in the week.

House Democrats’ coronavirus bill delayed as GOP pushes to include Trump proposals

The ECB decided not to cut interest rates, despite market expectations for a reduction amid the ongoing coronavirus outbreak.  However, the central bank did announce measures to support bank lending & expanded its asset purchase program by €120B ($135B).  Market participants were expecting a rate cut of 10 basis points as a way to stimulate the euro economy amid fears that a recession is about to hit the region.  Both the Federal Reserve & Bank of England cut rates over the last week as ways to support their respective economies.  The ECB's main rate stands at -0.5%. The negative rate is meant to spur banks to loan money rather than park it at the central bank.  Experts have argued that in comparison with other central banks, the ECB's toolkit is more constrained given that its rates are in negative territory.  The coronavirus, which began in China at the end of 2019, has spread worldwide.  There are more than 127K confirmed cases globally, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.  Italy, one of the biggest economies in the euro area, has the highest number of cases outside China & has implemented a nationwide lockdown.  Speaking at a press conference, ECB Pres Christine Lagarde said that the “spread of the coronavirus covid-19 has been a major shock to the growth prospects of the global economy & the euro areas economy and it has heightened market volatility.”  The ECB is responsible for monetary policy in 19 European economies.  However, each nation decides what to do in terms of fiscal policy.  Speaking at a press conference, Lagarde said that: “Governments and all other policy institutions are called upon to take timely and targeted actions to address the public health challenge of containing the spread of the coronavirus and mitigate the economic impact.”

ECB surprises by not cutting rates, but announces stimulus to fight coronavirus impact

Making analysis in all the confusion sense is meaningless.  Even gold is being hit with massive selling.  The Dow is back to where it was in late 2017.  However, the US economy is reasonably strong, so far.  Watch for layoffs by employers.  There is a shortage ot skilled labor & employers are reluctant to lay off their employees.  But that is subject to change if economic conditions worsen.  Congress remains dysfunctional & has a holiday period scheduled for next week.  This is a good time for prayers.

Dow Jones Industrials








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