Tuesday, March 17, 2020

Markets rebound with limited bargain hunting

Dow recovered 530, advancers over decliners a relatively modest 5-4 & NAZ gained 304.  The MLP index lost another 5+ to 86 & the REIT index jumped up 11 to the 299s.  Junk bond funds were purchased after recent selling & Treasuries drifted lower.  Oil was up pennies in the 28s & gold rose 53 to 1539.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil28.72
  +0.02+0.1%

GC=FGold   1,521.30
+34.80+2.3%






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The White House is pitching Senate Reps on an $850B coronavirus relief package that could contain provisions like a payroll tax cut & aid for hard-hit industries as Pres Trump warned the fast-spreading disease may push the US into a recession.  Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin is expected to meet with Senate Reps on later today to discuss the proposal, which could include broader economic measures like $250B in Small Business Association loans, $500B for a payroll tax cut & $58B for airlines.  The Senate's discussions on a 3rd round of stimulus took on new urgency as the stock market plummeted again, with the Dow shedding nearly 3K, its 2nd-worst day in history.   American life has come to a grinding halt, with schools & businesses across the country closing to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 (coronavirus).  “The Senate is committed to meeting these uncertain times with bold and bipartisan solutions,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said yesterday.  Work on the bill follows the enactment of an $8.3B package of emergency funding for prevention efforts & research earlier this month & the House passage of a bill aimed at expanding the social safety net, including free COVID-19 testing, even for the uninsured, extending paid sick leave to more Americans & providing Bs in funding to state & local govs for food programs & unemployment benefits.

Inside White House's $850B relief package


Cleveland Federal Reserve Pres Loretta Mester said she voted against this week's interest rate cut because it leaves the central bank with no further rate ammunition & could have been more effective later.  The central bank official explained her lone dissent against the move Sun to slash the Fed’s benchmark rate to near zero, where it was during the financial crisis & for 7 years after.  “I preferred to stage our policy actions by first providing liquidity to improve market functioning, supported by a smaller reduction in the funds rate,” she said.  “This would have preserved the option of a further cut in the funds rate, if needed, for a time when market functioning had improved and such an action could be expected to be most effective in supporting the economy” after the coronavirus scare had been contained.  Mester noted the disruptions in financial markets since the coronavirus scare have intensified.  As such, she said she supported all of the other measures of the Federal Open Market Committee, including $700B in asset purchases & a reduction in the rate charged at the Fed's discount window for bank borrowing.  Going forward, she said if conditions continue to deteriorate she would support instituting financial crisis-era programs like a commercial paper facility as well as a term auction facility if the discount window isn't enough to keep money flowing for financial institutions.  She said interest rate cuts in the current climate are less impactful.  “When markets are not functioning well, the transmission mechanism of monetary policy to the economy is disrupted, and any reduction in the target federal funds rate will have less of an impact on the real economy,” Mester added.

Fed’s Mester explains ‘no’ vote on rate cut, says she would back commercial paper help

The COVID-19 outbreak in New York state has spread to at least 1374 people, hospitalizing 19% & killing 12, New York Gov Andrew Cuomo announced.  Cuomo said at least 264 New Yorkers (19% of the known cases) have been hospitalized with COVID-19.  The number of New Yorkers hospitalized with the virus is higher than average, Cuomo added during a press briefing  on the COVID-19 outbreak spreading throughout the state.  The state is scrambling to expand its hospital capacity to handle an influx of cases before infections peak here, he said.  New York currently has 53K hospital beds & 3K ICU beds, far short of what state health officials are predicting will be needed.  They estimate the state will need 18K-37K ICU beds & at least 55K hospital beds at the peak of the outbreak across the state, which he predicted will take about 45 days.  “That, my friends, is the problem that we’ve been talking about since the beginning of this exercise,” Cuomo said.

New York state coronavirus cases soar to more than 1,300, hospitalizing 19%

Bargain hunters are shopping for stocks.  However, the rally is underwhelming all considered with a weak advance/decline reading.  Congress is working on a recovery bill to help & big companies are looking for ways to help.  Over the short term], problems keep growing.  The NY Dept of Labor said its website crashed 3 times yesterday because it was overwhelmed by the number of applications for unemployment benefits.  The weekly unemployment report on Thurs will be very dreadful.  Trading began the day in the red, but the last hour has seen buying (which may not last).

Dow Jones Industrials








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