Friday, March 13, 2020

Markets surge after Trump declares a national emergency

Dow shot up 1985 with heavy buying into the close, advancers over decliners better than 6-1 & NAZ gained 672.  The MLP index bounce back 7+ to the 106s & the REIT index gained 17 to 340.  Junk bond funds rose in price & Treasuries were sold, with the yield on the 10 Treasury rising 10 basis points to 0.95% (more than double its recent record lows).  Oil rose fractionally to 32 & gold tumbled 67 to 1522 (more below).

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CME Group is taking a precautionary measure and shutting its legendary Chicago trading floor at the close of business today to help contain the spread of the new coronavirus.  The decision comes as medical professions urge people to “reduce large gatherings that can contribute to the spread of coronavirus,” CME Group said.  The firm said all of its products will continue to trade electronically on its Globex platform & that it does not know when the trading floor will be reopened.  No cases of COVID-19 have been reported on the trading floor or in the Chicago Board of Trade building.  CME Group is the world's largest exchange, home to trading of futures & options on a number of asset classes, including equities, fixed income, foreign exchange & agriculture.  Neighboring Cboe Global Markets will also close its trading floor as a “precautionary measure” at the end of business today.  Cboe products will trade electronically on the company's C1 platform.  While the exchanges in Chicago are going fully electronic, the New York Stock Exchange is planning to keep its iconic trading floor open. The NYSE has taken a number of precautionary steps, however, including mandating separate entrances for traders & staff.  Logistically, the trading floors in Chicago are set up differently than those of the NYSE.  Chicago has trading pits, which confine a large number of people into a tight space while NY's allows for a bit more distance between traders.  Recently, the large daily swings in the markets have been a boon for all of the exchanges, leading to record trading volumes.

Chicago trading floors shut down


Mnuchin also said the administration will work with Congress on helping the US airline industry, which has been negatively impacted by the outbreak of the virus.  "[Airlines] want to make sure they can continue to provide domestic travel and keep as many workers employed as they can," he said.  "The airline industry is obviously very important ... this is a big impact. The U.S. airline industry is very strong."  The Treasury secretary added that he would be "perfectly comfortable" getting on a commercial jet this weekend.  Lower oil prices, he added, will also benefit the average American & US airlines.  On Mon, West Texas Intermediate crude oil plunged 25% after Saudi Arabia slashed its price by $6-8 a barrel when Russia declined to join OPEC in cutting supply.  The selloff contributed to a more than 2K drop for the Dow, the sharpest since the 2008 financial crisis.

Mnuchin: Trump wants to put money into economy for these Americans


The New York Stock Exchange is taking steps to separate traders on the floor of its iconic building & employees of the NYSE & its parent Intercontinental Exchange to reduce the risk of spreading coronavirus, according to an internal memo.  The steps, which include mandating separate entrances & eating spaces for floor traders & staff, are aimed at reducing the likelihood that an event in the building’s office tower will impact operations on the trading floor, NYSE COO Michael Blaugrund, said in the memo.  Non-working visitors to the NYSE floor have been kept to a minimum this week, the building has intensified overnight cleaning efforts & an outside vendor will provide extra deep cleaning on weekends, it said.  “Given the critical work by our NYSE and NYSE American floor communities to underpin the orderly function of global markets, all of these efforts, and others, will remain ongoing until further notice,” the memo said.  Concerns about how the fast-spreading coronavirus will affect the economy have led to global stock market routs, with volumes & volatility spiking to levels not seen since the 2007-2009 financial crisis.  While nearly all US stock trading is done electronically, the NYSE says its hybrid electronic & floor broker model helps keep trading more orderly.  But even the Big Board can operate fully electronically if the floor needs to be shut.  The NYSE & exchange operators Nasdaq, Cboe Global Markets & IEX Group have all said they have regularly tested contingency plans in place to ensure continuous trading if the coronavirus leads to some facilities being temporarily shuttered.

New York Stock Exchange traders on the floor bracing for unthinkable move


House Speaker Nancy Pelosi vowed to pass a coronavirus relief bill today, but pointedly did not reveal whether she has reached a final deal with the White House on how to combat the global pandemic.  As the number of confirmed cases of coronavirus disease, or COVID-19, rise in the US & the outbreak upends daily life & the US economy, she called for a “coordinated, science-based and whole of government response” to the crisis & urged Congress to pass a “response that puts families first to stimulate the economy.”  “Today, we are passing a bill that does just that,” she said during remarks in front of a row of American flags designed to stress the gravity of the moment.  The California Dem spoke amid her intense negotiations with Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin on a potential agreement to provide economic relief to Americans affected by coronavirus.  The fate of a Dem-backed plan was in limbo this PM as House Reps were wary & waited for a signal from Pres Trump.   Yesterday evening, Pelosi said Dems & the administration were close to a final deal.  Today, a senior administration official said that “several pieces of the text, which go beyond provisions kept limited to address Covid-19, do not yet have sign off from us.”  House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy told Reps on a conference call that he does not yet back the plan.  Talks continued after Pelosi's remarks: she spoke to Mnuchin for the 9th time of the day.  House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer earlier signaled the House would vote on the bill today even if Reps did not support it.  Dems have a majority in the chamber, but Reps control the Senate.  The upper chamber canceled its planned recess next week but left DC for the weekend.  The legislation Dems aim to pass today includes free coronavirus testing, including for uninsured people, Pelosi said.  “The three most important parts of this bill are: Testing. Testing. Testing,” she added.  She said the package would offer 14 days of paid sick leave & up to three months of paid family & medical leave.  A report last night that the plan would include a tax credit to help smaller businesses cover the costs of the time off.  The legislation would also enhance unemployment insurance for furloughed workers, buttress food programs such as SNAP & student meals & boost federal money for Medicaid, according to Pelosi.

Pelosi vows to pass coronavirus bill without word of a deal with White House

New York state now has more cases than any other state in the US as the number of newly confirmed infections surged by 30% overnight to 421, New York Gov Andrew Cuomo.  “This is not going to be a quick situation.  This is going to be weeks, months,” Cuomo said.  “My guess is there are thousands and thousands of cases walking around the state of New York.”  Today, the cluster of cases in NY surpassed Washington state for the first time, Cuomo said, adding that there are 420 confirmed infections in Washington.  The fast-moving virus is rapidly spreading throughout the US & the number of cases changes by the hour.  It wasn't clear whether Cuomo's information was out of date; Washington state's health dept updated its case count to reflect 457 total confirmed infections & 31 deaths.  The nation’s first COVID-19 patient flew into the Seattle-Tacoma Intl Airport on Jan 15 from Wuhan, China.  NY's “numbers are spiking because our testing capacity is going up,” Cuomo said, adding New Yorkers will see 1K more cases next week.  NY was ramping up its testing, having just received federal approval to allow 28 labs across the state that can process complex tests to begin running coronavirus tests.  He said the state should be able to process 6K tests a day starting next week.  So far, the state has been able to run a total of just 3K tests so far, he continued.  “At some point, you can’t control the situation. And that is where we are,” he added.

New York Gov. Cuomo says state has the most coronavirus cases in US as new cases jump to 421

Gold futures ended sharply lower for a 4th straight session on Fri, with a loss of more than 9% for the week—the largest since 2011.  Volatility-shocked investors looked for news on fiscal stimulus packages from govs around the world to help ease the economic pain of the COVID-19 epidemic that has ground some of the world's business activity to a halt & rocked financial markets.  Gold for Apr delivery fell  an astounding $73.60 (4.6%) to settle at $1516.  Prices for the metal, based on the most-active contract, ended at their lowest level YTD.  Gold futures saw a weekly loss of 9.3%, the biggest percentage decline since 2011.  The US Mint said yesterday that it has temporarily sold out of American Silver Eagle bullion coins.  “Our rate of sale in just the first part of March exceeds 300% of what was sold last month,” the Mint said.  Sales of the one-ounce American Silver Eagle coins were at 2.32M  so far this month, as of yesterday, compared with sales of 650K in the month of Feb, according too the Mint.

Gold futures log largest weekly loss in more than 8 years

This week will long be remembered by investors for extraordinary volatily & major daily price swings.  Confusion reigned & this pattern of behavior is likely to continue next week.  The Dow finished down 2300 this month after the surge in the last ½ of trading today.  Federal gov & Fed Reserve help is coming next week.  But the virus influence is expanding, oil is depressed & those prices are not bringing more demand & there is growing talk of a recession with all the tumult out there.  Try to get some rest & relaxation this week.

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