Tuesday, March 3, 2020

Markets look for direction after Fed makes an emergency rate cut

Dow inched up 5, advancers over decliners about 2-1 & NAZ gained 14.  The MLP index  was even in the 176s (a multi year low) & the REIT index jumped up 7+ to the 405s.  Junk bond funds climbed higher after last week's selling & Treasuries were sold.  Oil  went up to the 53s & gold rocketed ahead 32 to 1627.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil47.50
 +0.75+1.6%

GC=FGold   1,606.20
+11.40+0.7%






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The Federal Reserve has decided to make an emergency rate cut to cushion the US economy from the fallout of the coronavirus outbreak & stocks soared in response to the news.  The central bank lowered its fed funds rate by 50 basis points to 1-1.25%.  “The fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong. However, the coronavirus poses evolving risks to economic activity. In light of these risks and in support of achieving its maximum employment and price stability goals, the Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point, to 1 to 1‑1/4 percent. The Committee is closely monitoring developments and their implications for the economic outlook and will use its tools and act as appropriate to support the economy.”

Fed makes emergency rate cut to combat coronavirus fallout


Officials of most of the world's largest economies pledged a united front in the battle against the novel coronavirus scare but offered no specific actions.  “Given the potential impacts of COVID-19 on global growth, we reaffirm our commitment to use all appropriate policy tools to achieve strong, sustainable growth and safeguard against downside risks,” the G-7 statement said.  Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin & Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell led a conference call with finance ministers & central bank leaders from each of the nations.  Various other officials participated, including Haruhiko Kuroda, the governor of the Bank of Japan.  Markets have been expecting some type of coordinated action to come from global authorities.  In the US, traders are pricing in aggressive rate cuts from the Fed, including a 50 basis point cut in short-term rates this month followed by additional easing later.  The G-7 statement offered no specifics & stocks fell at the market open.  “Alongside strengthening efforts to expand health services, G7 finance ministers are ready to take actions, including fiscal measures where appropriate, to aid in the response to the virus and support the economy during this phase,” the statement said. “G7 central banks will continue to fulfill their mandates, thus supporting price stability and economic growth while maintaining the resilience of the financial system.”  The statement added that authorities from the IMF & World Bank also pledge “the use of their available instruments to the fullest extent possible.”  The IMF released a statement yesterday in which it used similar language, offering “emergency financing, policy advice, and technical assistance” for impacted countries.  Markets have been in turmoil as the coronavirus scare has intensified.  Stocks sold off sharply last week, dropping 12% off the Dow, before a historic rally yesterday that saw the blue chip index post its strongest one-day point gain ever & biggest percentage gain since 2009.  The index was pointing to a drop of more than 200 points at today's open.  There have been 91K confirmed cases of the COVID-19 strain globally that have led to 3118 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins tracking.  The US has seen 105 cases & 6 deaths.

G-7 countries promise to use policy tools but offer no specific actions to combat coronavirus


Target's (TGT), a Dividend Aristocrat, Q4 EPS rose to $1.63 & adjusted EPS was $1.69, topping the $1.66 estimate.  Revenue of $23.4B, however, trailed projections of $23.5B.  Comparable sales, including e-commerce, grew 1.5% year-over-year, boosted by same-day services, which accounted for more than 80% of the company's digital sales growth.  "With 11 consecutive quarters of positive comparable sales growth, driven by healthy performance in both our stores and digital channels, Target's results demonstrate that we've built a sustainable business model that drives strong top-line growth and consistent bottom-line performance," CEO Brian Cornell said.  For the full-year, TGT earned $3.28B, up 11.7% from the prior year, on revenue of $77.13B.  Comparable sales, including online, were up 3.4% from a year earlier.  Looking ahead, the company sees Q1 comparable sales increasing by low single digits & EPS of $1.55-1.75.  Full-year comparable sales are expected to rise by low single digits & the company predicts full-year EPS of $6.70-7.00.  The stock dropped 2.55.
If you would like to learn more about TGT, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/TGT?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Target posts strong online sales, but revenue comes up short


Stocks started the day lower after yesterday's record surge.  Then buyers bid prices after after the Fed announcement followed by selling which brought the averages around breakeven.  The stock market has been thru an usually volatile time recently & there is a lot for investors to digest.  The Volatility Index dropped 2 today to the 31s, but that is still more than double where was when stocks were in a rally mode.  Gold is surging after the record rise for the Dow yesterday indicating that nervous investors may have the upper hand today & the future is uncertain.

Dow Jones Industrials








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