Monday, March 23, 2020

Markets plunge again while gold skyrockets to its biggest daily gain

Dow tumbled 582 (with buying in the last ½ hour paring the earlier loss), decliners over advancers 4-1 & NAZ lost 18.  The MLP index dropped fell 6+ to the 83s & the REIT index was off 17 to 248.  Junk bond funds declined in price & Treasuries were in heavy demand.  Oil went up to the 23s in a very volatile day of trading & gold jumped to close up 75 at 1560 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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Labor Secretary Eugene Scalia acknowledged the coronavirus pandemic, which has forced American life to come to a near standstill, threatening to plunge the economy into a recession that could rival the 2008 financial crisis, will cause a significant spike in unemployment.  Although Scalia declined to provide specific numbers -- or comment on speculation from Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Pres James Bullard that unemployment could surge to 30% in Q2 -- he stressed that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits is "going to go up."  "We know it’s going to be a large number," he said.  Still, Scalia noted that the economy was coming into the headwinds on a "very strong" foundation.  In Feb, employers added 273K jobs, while unemployment returned to 3.5%, a ½-century low.  "Let's keep in mind that we are coming into this from a strong foundation, with a president who’s shown an ability to help the private sector grow jobs," Scaliaa added.  Jobless claims are already climbing -- last Thurs, the Labor Dept said the number of Americans filing applications for jobless benefits jumped to 281K for the latest week, the highest level since Jun 2017 -- & are expected to surge in coming weeks.  The previous record of 695K was set in 1982.  One concern as unemployment rises is states' inability to handle the influx of requests.  Despite the historically long, 11-year economic expansion, 22 states' unemployment trust funds are unprepared to pay out enough in unemployment benefits in the case of a recession, according to Labor Dept data.  But Scalia said the federal gov was coordinating with the unemployment offices to ensure they're able to make insurance available to Americans.  "We are working with them on a constant basis to make the funds available," he said.

Labor secretary bracing for surge in jobless claims as virus grips US


"We can supply all the cash banks need to meet their customer concerns.This is the reason the Federal Reserve exists."  That's what Minneapolis Fed Pres Neel Kashkari said.  The Federal Reserve is the lender of last resort.  Congress has given the Fed the authority to print money & provide liquidity to the financial markets.  "The banks are sound right now, but we are hearing from big businesses across the country, including in Minnesota, that big business' are drawing down their credit lines, they are borrowing from banks just because they're nervous," said Kahkari..  "And if they are all drawing down their credit lines at the same time, it puts stress on the banking system and that is where the Federal Reserve steps in to provide liquidity."  Kashkari says the Federal is being more aggressive.  "Our chairman Jay Powell has learned from the experience of 2008, we are moving much faster than in 2008. I think we are very aggressive and I think that is the right thing,"  In the past week, the Fed flooded the market with money & Kashkari says there is no end to its ability to do that.

Fed's Neel Kashkari: Banks are safe


Boeing (BA), a very troubled Dow stock, will temporarily suspend operations at facilities in Washington state as the coronavirus pandemic continues to spread throughout the nation.  The temporary closure of the Puget Sound facilities will start Mar 25 & last 14 days.  During this period, BA will conduct "additional deep cleaning activities at impacted sites" and establish "rigorous criteria for return to work."  "This necessary step protects our employees and the communities where they work and live," said CEO Dave Calhoun.  "We continue to work closely with public health officials, and we're in contact with our customers, suppliers and other stakeholders who are affected by this temporary suspension."  The company said employees in the Puget Sound area who are able to work from home will continue to do so & that those who are unable to work remotely will receive paid leave for the first 10 working days of the suspension.  The number is double the company policy & will cover the entire 14 calendar day suspension period.  "We will keep our employees, customers and supply chain top of mind as we continue to assess the evolving situation," Calhoun added.  "This is an unprecedented time for organizations and communities across the globe."  24 employees in the Puget Sound area have confirmed cases of COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, as of Sat.  The stock rose 11 to 106 (where it was 6 years ago)..
If you would like to learn more about BA, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/BA?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Boeing to suspend production at Washington facilities amid coronavirus emergency


Oil jumped more than 3% as the Federal Reserved announced aggressive asset purchases to support markets.  The move higher was a reversal from last week's steep declines, which saw West Texas Intermediate (WTI) post its worst week since 1991.  In a volatile session that saw oil alternate between gains & losses, WTI gained 3.2% to settle at $23.36 per barrel.  Earlier, prices fell as much as 6%.  Intl benchmark Brent crude traded 0.6% higher at $27.18 per barrel.  The COVID-19 outbreak & subsequent business slowdown has pressured oil prices & stock averages tumble into bear market territory.  The Federal Reserve announced a new round of measures aimed at propping up the economy.  The central bank said it will continue to purchase Treasury securities & agency mortgage-backed securities in the amounts needed to support smooth market functioning & effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions.  Traders are hoping that this additional support will put a floor under oil prices, which have been hit especially hard by the coronavirus outbreak.  WTI crude futures have been cut in ½ this month as a travel slowdown eats into crude demand, just as powerhouse producers Saudi Arabia & Russia prepare to ramp up production.  The rapid decline in prices has wreaked havoc in other areas of the financial markets, as investors have been forced to sell other other assets such as Treasuries or equities indiscriminately to cover losses in their energy positions.  Traders are also eyeing a stimulus bill in DC, which could also boost oil prices.  The massive stimulus funding package failed for a 2nd time to get enough votes in the Senate, although Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said negotiations would continue.

Oil jumps 3% in volatile session as Fed promises aggressive asset purchases to support

Gold futures rallied to post the largest daily $ gain on record, with bullion up a 3rd straight session after the Federal Reserve unveiled a major stimulus package that includes unlimited purchases of Treasuries & mortgage-backed securities.  Gold had initially gained ground as global stocks traded lower on continued worries over the tremendous economic hit expected from the global COVID-10 pandemic.  Gold moved even higher as US benchmark stock indices dropped in the wake of the Fed move.  Gold for Apr rose $83 (5.6%) to settle at $1567 after putting in a weekly decline for the most-active contract of 2.1%.  Based on the most-active contract, prices scored their largest one-day $ gain based on records dating back to 1984.  They also notched the largest daily percentage rise since the stock market bottom in 2009.  Gold has faced some friction as a haven asset, as cash-strapped investors have been forced at times to sell bullion amid the persistent global rout in financial markets that has knocked most markets into bear-market territory.  Overall strength in the $ also has weighed on the price of precious metals, as the cases of the infectious disease that was first identified in Asia in Dec accelerates.  The Senate failed to advance in bill on the stimulus package, as talks continued between Rep & Dems.  Germany, meanwhile, may authorize more than €350B in new debt as Chancellor Angela Merkel was quarantined after coming into a contact with a doctor who had contracted the illness.

Gold scores biggest daily dollar gain on record


As bad as the markets look, there is hope.  With the Senate looking south of awful those guys should find some what to come up with a rescue package.  After all it doesn't come out of their pay checks.  Hopefully that will happen soon.  Keep your fingers crossed.  Bigger picture, the coronavirus mess & the clean up after will require a gargantuan effort which could easily take a decade, if not longer.  This affects the entire globe, something few grasp.  Plenty of prayers are needed,

Dow Jones Industrials








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