Friday, March 27, 2020

Markets retreat after an historic 3 day rally

Dow tumble 782, decliners over advancers 7-1 & NAZ lost 221.  The MLP index fell 3+ to the 88s & the REIT index was off 2+ to the 306s.  Junk bond funds were mixed after being in a rally mode & Treasuries continued in strong demand.  Oil dropped 1+ to the 21s & gold gave back 26 to 1625.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil21.38
  -1.22-5.4%

GC=FGold   1,614.00
-37.20-2.3%






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Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said the small business relief included in the massive $2T coronavirus stimulus package could keep 50% of Americans at work.  A key piece of the largest relief bill in recent memory is the more than $370B in funding for small businesses.  Businesses with fewer than 500 employees are eligible for up to $10M in loans, which can be used for payroll & other expenses, like insurance premiums, mortgages, rent or utilities.  The gov will pay off the loan balance so long as the companies either do not lay off workers or rehire ones they've already let go.  "As long as you hire those people, your loan will be forgiven," Mnuchin said.  "This keeps 50 percent of American workers at work."  Once businesses receive the loans, they'll have 2 months to use the money to avoid repaying it.  The banks lending the money would be reimbursed by the Treasury Dept, which is receiving $377B to fund the program.  The program does come with some restrictions.  Businesses that have recently laid off workers would be required to repay a larger portion of their loans & loans covering salaries of more than $100K a year wouldn't qualify for forgiveness.  Businesses would not have to repay loans covering up to 8 weeks' worth of payroll costs.  This is not the fault of the American public & we want to get all of those people paid," Mnuchin added.  "This is a Herculean effort that people will go into banks next Friday and be able to get loans. It's going to be a very simple process."

Mnuchin: Relief could keep 50% at work


House members are scrambling back to the Capitol as one member's opposition to a $2T coronavirus rescue package threatens to delay its passage.  With few representatives in DC this week as the outbreak tears across the country, the House hoped to approve the legislation quickly today without a recorded vote.  But after Rep Thomas Massie indicated he would oppose the bill, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer's office advised members last night “that it is possible this measure will not pass by voice vote.”  In a voice vote, members yell their yeas & nays & the presiding member decides which are louder.  The recorded vote is the typical method for major legislation, where members log a yes or no.  By the time the House convened this AM, though, the Maryland Dem's office said “we are hopeful the bill will pass by voice vote.”  Facing the prospect of the aid's approval getting pushed to Sat, Hoyer's office encouraged lawmakers to come back to DC “with caution” if they are “willing and able” to make the trip.  The roadblock prompted lawmakers to rush to come back more quickly than they expected — though it is unclear now if the House can gather the quorum needed to pass the bill presently.  House members shared photos as they hopped on near-empty flights.  Some expressed outrage that Massie would force lawmakers to come back & risk their safety — particularly after 2 representatives & a senator tested positive for COVID-19.  The stimulus measure, which includes one-time direct payments to individuals, beefed-up unemployment insurance, more health-care funding & loans to businesses, passed the Senate unanimously on Wed night.  Yesterday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi described the bill “as mitigation” of the crisis, predicting there would be more legislation to aid “recovery.”  The rush to pass the bill comes a day after data showed unemployment claims spiked to a record 3.3M last week after businesses across the country shuttered to slow the pandemic's spread.  Hospitals, particularly in ravaged NY, lack resources as they struggle to keep up with a rush of coronavirus patients.

House rushes back to Washington to try to pass $2 trillion coronavirus stimulus bill

Profits at China's industrial firms during the first 2 months of the year plunged by the most since record-keeping began in 1990 as Beijing’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic brought the economy to a screeching halt.  Their earnings sank 38% from the prior year to 411B yuan ($58B), according to China's National Bureau of Statistics.  The data from Jan & Feb are combined to smooth the impact of the Chinese Lunar New Year.  COVID-19, which originated in Wuhan, China, has infected 81K in the country & killed 3300, according to the latest data from Worldometer.  In response to the virus, Beijing locked down hundreds of Ms, paralyzing key economic sectors including mining, manufacturing & power.  Profits from petroleum, coal & other fuel-processing firms sank 117% & those from manufacturing companies fell 43%.  Elsewhere, the mining industry saw a 21% drop & the utilities sector witnessed a 23% slide.  Just 4 sectors – tobacco products, non-ferrous metals, oil & gas exploitation & processing of non-staple agricultural goods – of the 41 that are counted saw their profits increase.  A sharp drop in industrial profit isn't the only evidence that the Chinese economy is suffering. Manufacturing activity in Feb plunged at the fastest pace & to its lowest level on record.  Additionally, vehicle sales saw a 79% drop & retail sales tumbled 20%.

China sees historic drop in industrial profits


Nothing like a a little drama in getting the House to approve the big spending package.  But it looks like it will get one, one way or the other.  After an historic rally this week, traders are taking their profits.  That was expected.   But there is a lof of damage to the economy & the minds of investors which will  time to repair,  The Dow began the day in the dumps & continued at those levels so far.

Dow Jones Industrials








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