Friday, March 20, 2020

Markets rise as Congress crafts third stimulus package

Dow was off 61. advancers over decliners 3-1 & NAZ rose 25.   The MLP index shot up 14+ to the 97s & the REIT index added 3+ to the 381s.  Junk bond funds rose in price as investors were attracted to very high yields & Treasuries were purchased, driving down the yield on the 10 year Treasury below 1%.  Oil pulled back 1+ to the 23s & gold gained 17 to 1496.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil24.17
   -1.05-4.2%

GC=FGold   1,501.80
+22.50+1.5%






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Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said the White House is working to send $1000 checks to most adult Americans within 3 weeks to offset the coronavirus pandemic, which has forced life in the US to come to a grinding halt.  "We're going to get out of this quickly," Mnuchin said.  The checks are part of a broader $1T plan introduced by the White House earlier this week.  It includes $300B for small businesses to hire people & keep workers on the payroll; $200B for more facilities with the Federal Reserve for secured lending to hard-hit industries like airlines; & $500B "direct deposited" for most Americans.  Mnuchin said adults would receive an immediate payment of $1000 & children would receive $500 under the current proposal.  A family of 4 would receive as much as $3000.  If the crisis is still ongoing in 6 weeks, Mnuchin said, the federal gov will deliver another round of checks worth the same amount of money.  "That's a lot of money to hard-working Americans who are at home," Mnuchin added.  It's unclear what the income threshold will be for Americans to qualify for the checks.  However, it has been reported that Senate Reps are considering making the limit $75K for individuals & $150K for couples.  “I think it’s clear we don’t need to send people who make a million dollars a year checks,” Mnuchin said earlier this week.

Mnuchin: White House working to send checks to most Americans within 3 weeks


Coca-Cola (KO), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, does not expect to meet its financial outlook for 2020 due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.  Around the world, sporting events & concerts have been canceled, movie theaters & restaurants have been closed & people are working from home.  Those initiatives to promote social distancing, along with currency fluctuations, are expected to hit its business.  The beverage giant joins the growing list of companies that have withdrawn financial outlooks in response to the virus.  KO previously forecast that 2020 organic revenue would grow by 5% & adjusted EPS would increase by 7% to $2.25.  KO said it cannot estimate the blow to its business at this time, although it “could be material.”  The company expects to provide an update when it reports its Q1 earnings.  In late Feb, the global beverage giant forecast that the virus will hit Q1 EPS by 1-2¢, unit case volume by 2-3% & organic revenue by 1-2%.  KO also does not foresee any interruptions in its production at this time.  The stock dropped 87¢.
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/KO?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Coca-Cola withdraws 2020 outlook amid coronavirus pandemic

Global supply chains are set for a major reshuffle as the coronavirus pandemic exposes the vulnerability of countries & companies that rely heavily on a limited number of trading partners.  The new coronavirus disease, formally known as COVID-19, was first reported in the central Chinese city of Wuhan.  Since late-Jan, a wave of city-wide closures & quarantines in China have shut down factories in the world's 2nd-largest economy, disrupting supply chains globally.  SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) was another kind of coronavirus that broke out in 2002 & 2003 that wrought damage to China's economy.  Then, China’s contributed 4% to the world’s GDP.  Now, the country contributes almost 20% to world GDP, with much of the growth coming from foreign investment.

There will be a ‘massive’ shuffling of supply chains globally after coronavirus shutdowns

Stocks are bobbing around as investors are trying to figure out what is going on in DC with the stimulus packages.  This involves a huge amount of money & working out the details could take time.  The Dow dropped about 250 in the last few minutes & then steadied around breakeven.  High volatility will continue.

Dow Jones Industrials








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