Wednesday, March 18, 2020

Markets plunge on fears about economic damage from coronavirus

Dow dropped 1334 (below 20K), only 137 were gainers on the NYSE & NAZ sank 344 (below 7K).  The MLP index sank to 64 (what has to be a record low) & the REIT index plunged 29 to 277 (down about 200 from its record a month ago).  Junk bond funds were heavily sold & the yield on the Treasury note shot up to 1.3% as investors were buying 2 year (& shorter) notes.  Oil plunged 4+ to the 22s (more below) & gold fell 41 to 1491.

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The White House & Congress are scrambling to hash out the details of a massive stimulus package to help a US economy increasingly damaged by the coronavirus pandemic.  There had been hope on Capitol Hill that Congress could pass a deal this week, as Pres Trump seeks a measure with over $1T in spending.  So far, the Senate had yet to pass a second relief bill already approved by the House, which has created uncertainty about stimulus.  Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said the vote would come later today, after a delay triggered by Sen Rand Paul.  2 Dem aides cautioned it may be difficult to get thru both the 2nd package & a much larger one in a single week.  A first bill, signed by Trump earlier this month, focused on funding for vaccines, as well as for states & individuals battling the pandemic.  The much broader 3rd relief bill, the details of which remain in flux, could exceed $1T.  It may include direct payments to individuals, small-business lending, payroll tax cuts, & credit facilities for larger businesses & commercial paper facilities.  Some of the credit facilities for larger businesses will go to industries the gov is looking to aid, a leaker said.  Several companies & industries are seeking relief.  They include the travel & tourism industry, which is seeking $150B in aid, the airline industry which is seeking gov aid of more than $50B & Boeing (BA), a Dow stock, is seeking $60B for itself & the aerospace supply chain.  The administration has made clear it is intent on helping those industries in particular that have been pummeled by travel restrictions.  Trump said yesterday that the challenges facing the industry are not its fault.  Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have supported offering relief to certain industries, particularily airlines, which have drastically cut back capacity as the coronavirus & resulting travel restrictions spread.  Defenders of industrywide bailouts think collapses would hurt workers as well as execs.  Airlines, in particular, are viewed as essential to the economy, supporting 750K jobs & local hubs throughout the country.

Here’s where things stand on the White House’s push for a $1 trillion stimulus package

The S&P 500 plummeted more than 7% today as the coronavirus roiled US indices, triggering circuit breakers for the 4th time in less than 2 weeks.  The circuit breakers are intended to prevent further dropping.  According to the NYSE, the equities & options exchanges all have procedures for coordinated trading halts if a severe market decline threatens to exhaust liquidity levels.  The procedures, known as market-wide circuit breakers, may halt trading temporarily or, under extreme circumstances, close the markets before the normal close of the trading session.  The purpose of the circuit breakers, which are approved by the Securities & Exchange Commission, is to curb panic-selling.  Mar 9 was the first time that one of these circuit breakers, in their current form, have kicked in during regular trading hours.  The rules were revamped in Feb 2013 after they failed to prevent the flash crash in 2010, which saw the Dow drop by almost 1000 in just 10 minutes.  Although prices mostly recovered by market close, it prompted regulators to update the circuit breaker system.  “The market circuit breakers are designed to slow trading down for a few minutes, give investors the ability to understand what’s happening in the market, consume the information and make decisions based on market conditions,” New York Stock Exchange Pres Stacey Cunningham said.  “This is operating as it’s supposed to.”

Stocks crashing so hard they shut down the market due to 'circuit breakers'


Oil dropped 24% to a more than 18-year low as the coronavirus pandemic continues to sap demand for crude & as rising worries about a global recession lead to fears of longer-term demand destruction.  West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 24.4% ($6.58) to settle at $20.37 per barrel, its lowest level since 2002.  At the low of the day, the contract hit $20.06, the 3rd worst day on record.  Intl benchmark Brent crude shed 14% ($4.07) to trade at $24.67, its lowest level since 2003.  Oil is getting hit on both the supply & demand side.  A slowdown in worldwide travel & business activity is weighing on demand, just as powerhouse producers Saudi Arabia & Russia prepare to ramp up production.   As demand grinds to a halt, the OPEC+ production cuts currently in place expire at the end of the month, meaning nations will soon be allowed to pump as much as they please.  WTI & Brent crude are on pace for their worst month ever, each down over 50%.

Oil falls 24% in 3rd worst day on record, sinks to more than 18-year low

Detroit's Big 3 automakers plan to temporarily close all US factories as the  coronavirus sweeps across the country.  The companies bowed to pressure from union leaders & employees who called for protection from the pandemic that’s spread to more than 212K in nearly every country across the globe.  Ford (F) plans to close its factories in the US, Canada & Mexico after tomorrow evening & thru Mar 30.  The company said it would work closely with the UAW union in the coming weeks to restart plants & explore additional protocols & procedures to help prevent the spread of the virus.  “We’re continuing to work closely with union leaders, especially the United Auto Workers, to find ways to help keep our workforce healthy and safe — even as we look at solutions for continuing to provide the vehicles customers really want and need,” said Kumar Galhotra, Ford's pres of North America.  General Motors (GM) is closing all North American factories at least until Marc 30 & will evaluate the situation on a weekly basis after that.  Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) also plans to close its US factories, according to people familiar with the matter.  The closures would affect 25 final-assembly factories at the 3 automakers & 150K union workers, according to the UAW & each automaker.  GM has 11 factories, the most of the Big 3, followed by Ford's 8 factories & FCAU has 6.  “UAW members, their families and our communities will benefit from today’s announcement with the certainty that we are doing all that we can to protect our health and safety during this pandemic,” said UAW Pres Rory Gamble.  “This will give us time to review best practices and to prevent the spread of this disease.”  Earlier today, Ford temporarily closed its operations at a Michigan-based assembly plant after an employee tested positive for COVID-19.  It wasn't immediately made clear when or if the factory would reopen.  The halt in production could create an immediate cash crunch for the automakers as demand for cars declines amid the COVID-19 outbreak.

General Motors, Ford and Fiat Chrysler to temporarily close all US factories due to the coronavirus

A report just prior to the close said the Senate has the votes to pass a bill expanding paid leave & unemployment benefits in response to the coronavirus pandemic.  There was buying into the close, pushing the Dow up 800 to almost 20K.  As big as that is (if true), tomorrow's trading will begin after the weekly unemployment claims report is released & that will be ugly.  For months the number has been a little above 200K.  That's very good.  Expect bad news tomorrow & next week will be much worse starting with auto workers who will file.  Then there is the news on oil, trading not far from its lowest levels in history.  Meanwhile the Dow has plummeted about 9500 (from its record) in less than a month.  Tomorrow will be a highly volatile day.

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