Thursday, March 26, 2020

Markets surge capping the biggest 3 day rally in almost 90 years

Dow soared 1351, advancers over decliners better than 6-1 & NAZ advanced 413.  The MLP index added 2+ to the 92s & the REIT index gained 20+ to the 309s.  Junk bond funds rose in price & Treasuries remained in strong demand.  Oil dropped 1+ to the 23s (more below) & gold rose 10 to 1643.

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Labor Secretary Eugene Scalia said Americans could start receiving relief checks within 3 weeks, as the coronavirus pandemic forces an unprecedented shutdown of the nation's economy, leaving Ms unemployed.  "Those checks from the IRS, they'll be out we hope within three weeks," Scalia said.  "So that's some immediate cash relief."  The massive $2T stimulus plan includes payments of up to $1200 for individuals who earn less than $99K annually & $2400 for couples, with $500 added for every child.  The aid is based on 2019 tax returns for those who filed them & 2018 information if they have not done so yet.  The benefit begins to taper for individuals making more than $75K.  Individuals who earn more than $99K in income will not receive a check.  Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin has previously said that most of the checks will be direct deposited.  The bill, which passed with bipartisan support in the Senate last night, is now awaiting approval by the House of Representatives.  "With this Senate bill, we're even better positioned to rebound quicker," Scalia said.  The checks come amid a record-breaking spike in unemployment claims: The Labor Dept said that 3.28M filed for unemployment last week.  The number eclipsed the previous record of 695K set in 1982 & is well above the levels seen in the midst of the 2008 financial crisis.  The data dates back to 1967.

Labor secretary: Relief checks could go to Americans in 3 weeks


White House health advisor Anthony Fauci said that the US “can start thinking about getting back to some degree of normality when the country as a whole turns that corner” of reducing the spread of the coronavirus outbreak.   ’“You need to see the trajectory of the curve start to come down,” Fauci said.  Pres in recent days has said he wants to see the US get back to social & economic normalcy sooner rather than later.  Health experts have opposed that idea, arguing that even tighter restrictions on social interactions & businesses are necessary in order to slow the spread of the coronavirus to avoid infecting people overwhelming hospital systems.   Fauci noted that New York City, the current center of the outbreak in the country, is experiencing a “terrible time.”  He said people need to practice social distancing from each other to avoid spreading the COVID-19 virus.  “This is serious business, you’re not overreacting,” Fauci added.  “Everybody until this is over should practice some degree of distancing and care,” Fauci said.  “You need to protect yourself.”  He said there is troubling data that more young people are becoming infected in the US than have been seen in other countries.  Fauci added  that young people need to realize that even if they do not feel sick they should avoid contact with others, because they could “become the vector” of transmitting the virus.  “And then you pass it along to your grandfather, your grandmother, who is on chemotherapy for cancer,” & they get sick, he warned.

Fauci says US can consider getting back to normal when coronavirus slows greatly

As the House prepares to pass a historically massive $2T coronavirus relief bill, Speaker Nancy Pelosi outlined more steps she wants to take to blunt damage to the economy & health-care system.  After the Senate passed the package, believed to be the biggest rescue plan in US history, the House hopes to follow suit tommorrow in what Pelosi predicted would be a “strong, bipartisan” vote.  She set the stage for more congressional legislation as the pandemic rampages through the country.  Pelosi indicated she would push to send more money directly to Americans on top of the payments set out in the Senate-passed bill.  “I don’t think we’ve seen the end of direct payments,” Pelosi said.  A separate proposal House Dems put forward this week called for direct payments of $1500 for individuals.  As businesses across the country close to slow COVID-19′s spread, a record 3.3M filed unemployment claims last week.  The number of virus cases continues to climb in the US, approaching 70K, while at least 1K have died from the disease, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.  As lawmakers deal with an unpredictable crisis, Pelosi said Congress “has to be on call for what we need when we need it, and we don’t know what that might be.”  Still, the speaker outlined some immediate goals she wants to address in future bills.  She highlighted free coronavirus testing & treatment, along with more money for state & local health-care grants & food assistance.  She also called for tougher safety standards for frontline workers.  The outbreak has created uncertainty around when & how Congress will vote to provide relief.  Most House members are currently home after two representatives tested positive for COVID-19 & others who had contact with them chose to isolate.  The Senate, where one member has tested positive, does not plan to vote again until Apr 20, Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said.  However, he added the chamber would stay “nimble” & could get called back, if needed.  After the Senate vote, Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said the “odds are high” Congress will need to pass more relief legislation.

Nancy Pelosi predicts more direct payments during the coronavirus crisis

Oil futures settled lower as growing worries about the decline in energy demand due to the global COVID-19 pandemic prompted prices to mark their first decline in 4 sessions.  West Texas Intermediate crude for May fell $1.89 (7.7%) to settle at $22.60 a barrel.  The front-month May Brent crude lost $1.05 (3.8%) to $26.34 a barrel, the lowest front-month contract finish since Mar 18.  Both crude benchmarks had posted 3 straight sessions of gains.  Comments from the International Energy Agency's Exe Director Fatih Birol at an online event hosted by Atlantic Council contributed to the dire outlook for global oil demand.  Oil gained ground yesterday, with support tied to expected Senate passage of a $2T US economic stimulus package. The Senate, after a late snag, passed the legislation, sending it to the House, where it’s expected to win quick approval & then land on the desk of Pres Trump, who has vowed to sign it.  But oil will struggle to recover from a price collapse sparked by the pandemic & a global price war between Russia & Saudi Arabia that is flooding the world with crude.  Meanwhile, the Energy Dept withdrew a Mar 19 tendeer for the first part of a plan to buy 77M barrels of oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as the Trump administration failed to win funding for the purchase from Congress.  Following a steep decline in oil prices, Pres Trump had announced on Mar 13 that the US would buy large quantities of oil to fill the SPR.

Oil marks first decline in 4 sessions as fears of demand crunch grow

In just 3 days, the Dow has gone from vastly oversold to vastly overbought.  That swing is difficult to imagine.  Profit taking tomorrow would be in order.  The future for the economy remains unclear.  The money already approved will help stop the bleeding, but should not be considered a quick fix for all problems.  First the coronoavirus paramedic has to get under control & then an economy which has been largely shut down needs major repairing.  That will take time.  Additionally, safe haven gold continues to be in demand by negative thinking investors.

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