Tuesday, March 10, 2020

Markets bounce back after Trump promises aid for the economy

Dow bounced back 304 (but sliding lower), advancers over decliners 7-1 (muted after yesterday's selloff) & NAZ shot up 154.  The MLP index rose 6+ to the 119s & the REIT index recovered 4+ to 371.  Junk bond funds were also purchased, along with stocks, & Treasuries were sold, taking the yield on the 10 year Treasury up 14 basis pints (a huge move) to 0.64%.  Oil jumped 2+ to the 23s (more below) & gold gave back 22 to 1653.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil33.52
+2.39+7.7%

GC=FGold   1,656.30
-19.40-1.2%






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Pres Trump & his coronavirus task force spoke to the nation last night & spoke of  “major” & “very dramatic” economic plans as a result of the coronavirus outbreak.  Trump said he would go to Capitol Hill today to ask for Congress to approve a payroll tax cut & relief for hourly workers to combat the economic damage the disease has inflicted.  The remarks were made after stock markets slid toward bear market territory amid coronavirus fears & an oil price war between Saudi Arabia & Russia.  “We are going to take care of and have been taking care of the American public and the American economy,”  Trump announced at the start of the briefing, “We’re going to be working with companies, small companies, large companies, a lot of companies so they don’t get penalized for something that is not their fault.”  After he left following his opening remarks Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin & the rest of the task force took some questions from the media.  Mnuchin responded to the recent fall in the stock market & he reiterated that “this is not like the financial crisis” & said the administration was prepared to use all of its tools to address the economic challenges.  “Our primary focus is there are parts of the economy that are going to be impacted, especially workers that need to be at home hard-working people who are at home under quarantine or taking care of their family we’ll be working on a program to address that,” Mnuchin added.  Mnuchin also hinted at some actions from the Internal Revenue service.  “We are looking at alternatives at the IRS,” said Mnuchin, “We have large tax payments coming up of providing certain relief to companies and individuals for liquidity.”  Trump & Mnuchin both suggested help is on the way for small businesses as well.  “We will also be working with small businesses who need liquidity through SBA programs,” said Mnuchin.  Meanwhile, Trump promised that his administration was “working” with the airline, cruise & hotel industry, which have been ravaged by coronavirus fears.  “It is not their fault, it is not our country's fault. This is something that we’ve been thrown into,” the pres said before turning over the remainder of the briefing to VP Mike Pence & his task force.

Trump unveils tax cut proposal, 'polices' to combat impact of virus


Oil rebounded following a day that saw oil plummet 25%.  The bounce came, along with stock futures after Pres Trump said he will be taking "major" steps to help the US economy against the impact of the coronavirus.  Oil had dropped to start the week as a price war started between Russia & Saudi Arabia.  Currently, benchmark US crude is gaining 4.6% ( $1.45) to $32.57 per barrel after losing 25% yesterday to $31.13 per barrel.

Oil shows gains following biggest one-day drop since start of Gulf War


The White House is not ready to roll out specific economic proposals in its response to the widening impact of the coronavirus outbreak, administration officials said.  The revelation comes as US stock futures pointed toward a sharp rebound at the open following the Dow's 2K-point drop yesterday & Pres Trump's suggestion that a payroll tax cut and other stimulus measures may be in the works to mitigate economic damage from the virus’ spread.  Trump has also invited Wall Street executives to meet at the White House tomorrow to discuss the response.  However, inside the administration, some officials were stunned by Trump's claim that he would hold a press conference today to announce an economic plan.  “That was news to everyone on the inside,” one official said.  The actual details of any plan remain up in the air.  “It’s not there right now,” an official said. “A lot of details need to be worked out.”  Trump's schedule for today includes a 5:30 PM media briefing for his coronavirus task force.  In addition to the potential payroll tax cut, which faces skepticism from Senate Reps, Trump also said the administration would work with travel industry players, such as airlines & cruise lines, as travel restrictions & fears stemming from the outbreak take a toll on them.  Wage relief for hourly workers is also under discussion, but it would require big federal spending & there are no details about how such a policy would work, an official said.  Trump on Fri signed an $8.3B spending package aimed at supporting states & researchers.  Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin & Larry Kudlow, the pres's top economic advisor, are slated to head to Capitol Hill today to brief Senate Reps on some ideas & try to get a sense of what is possible. “The president has a strong point of view, and he’s looking forward to Senate reaction to that perspective,” a senior administration official said.  Trump had said yesterday that he would meet with Rep lawmakers today to discuss economic measures.  However, a House Republican aide said there were no plans for members to go to the White House.  A representative for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's office said it had nothing to share regarding his schedule.  Another administration official making his views known in the coronavirus response is Peter Navarro, a key advisor to Trump on trade matters.  Navarro is pushing the payroll tax cut as part of the coronavirus response, according to officials.

White House plan for economic response to coronavirus is ‘not there right now,’ officials say

Today's recovery is not impressive.  Bargain hunting in stocks which are vastly oversold was to be expected, especially after Trump's encouraging comments.  But reality is setting in which is paring gains made at the opening.  The Dow is already 500 below it's start.  Promises by Trump sound good, but additional spending & tax breaks need approval by congress.  Based on their track record of getting things done, money issues can take some time.  There is no quick fix with the coronavirus & the bear market looks to be cheerless.  There is a good chance that the stock averages will be around break at the close.

Dow Jones Industrials









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