Tuesday, March 24, 2020

Markets surge on expectations for Congress to pass the stimulus deal

Dow jumped up 2112 (an eye popping 11%), advancers over decliners a big 12-1 & NAZ soared 557.  The MLP index was up only 2+ to the 83s & the REIT index jumped 19 to the 271s.  Junk bond funds were in big demand for their high yields & Treasuries saw profit taking, bringing higher yields.  Oil rose to almost 24 & gold skyrocketed an amazing 97 to 1665 (more on both below).

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White House coronavirus response coordinator Dr Deborah Birx is encouraged by the latest data from Italy that shows a decline in the number of new confirmed coronavirus cases & COVID-19 deaths.  "We're looking at the Italy data," Dr Deborah Birx said.  "I think we're encouraged over the last few days to watch the number of deaths starting to decline. That will be our first indicator, that what we put in place and what they put in place in Italy ... is starting to have an impact now."  "Deaths are a measure of what you did two and three weeks ago, not what you did now," she added.  Birx has been taking part in the White House's daily coronavirus briefings.  The US reports ore than 46K confirmed cases of the virus & 593 deaths.  "There are fragments of RNA that stay possibly for days," Birx said.  "I don't know at this point how long the infectious virus is there, but I think if we still find RNA at three days, we should assume that at least up to 24 hours there could be infectious virus there."  "It is the metal surfaces that we're most concerned about," she continued.  "Think about where you touch during the day, hard plastic and metals, doorknobs, holding onto the handrails in subways. That's why we're very concerned in metro areas that have subways and other elements like that."  Birx has a background in immunology & was appointed US Global AIDS coordinator by former Pres Obama in 2014.

WH Task Force doctor feeling 'encouraged'


Pres Trump said he wants the US economy to “open” back up by Easter Sunday, despite expert warnings about the deadly threat of the coronavirus.  Easter is Apr 12, less than 3 weeks away.  Trump's remarks came as more states imposed extreme  measures, including shutting down businesses & ordering residents to stay home, to try to slow the spread of the disease.  “We’re opening up this incredible country. Because we have to do that. I would love to have it open by Easter,” Trump said.  “I would love to have that. It’s such an important day for other reasons, but I’d love to make it an important day for this. I would love to have the country opened up, and rarin’ to go by Easter.”  The number of people found to have COVID-19 has increased significantly in recent days, as testing kits have been made more available to states.  In the US, over 46K cases of COVID-19, including 590 deaths have been confirmed, according to Johns Hopkins University.  Medical experts, including the Trump administration's scientific point man in the crisis, Dr Anthony Fauci, have strongly advocated restrictions on people-to-people contact, saying it’s better to overreact now than to be sorry later.  “I think we should really be overly aggressive and get criticized for overreacting,” he said last week.  Fears about the coronavirus — and the impact of gov containment efforts on businesses and workers — have prompted a dramatic surge in unemployment & have sent stocks spiraling down in recent weeks.

Trump wants to reopen US economy by Easter despite deadly threat of coronavirus

Coca-Cola (KO), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, is feeling the strain of the coronavirus pandemic on its supply chain.  “The supply chain is creaking around the world. There are flash points when it’s getting a little harder to get ingredients through, whether it’s delays at the borders, the big changes in channel mix,” CEO James Quincey said.  He added that its team is “doing a great job at adapting.”  In the US, the beverage giant is seeing heightened demand from grocery stores & e-commerce channels for its drinks as consumers stockpile food & beverages in preparation for spending more time at home.  As a result, the company is focusing on producing the products most important to its business, such as water, soda & sports drinks.   “Some of the smallest SKUs will have to be left out,” Quincey added.  KO withdrew its 2020 outlook Fri, citing the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.  Many of its customers, including restaurants, movie theaters & sporting venues, have been forced to shutter temporarily to slow the spread of the virus.  The stock recovered 1+ to the 39s.
If you would like to learn more about KO, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/KO?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Coca-Cola CEO says supply chain ‘creaking around the world’ due to coronavirus

Ford (F) will not reopen its plants in North America on Mar 30 as originally planned because of various stay-at-home orders due to the coronavirus.  “We are assessing various options and working with union leaders — including the United Auto Workers and Unifor — on the optimal timing for resuming vehicle production, keeping the well-being of our workforce top of mind,” Kumar Galhotra, Ford's pres of North America, said.  The company will provide additional updates once more details are confirmed.  Ford originally closed its plants in the US, Canada & Mexico on Mar 18 after bowing to pressure from the UAW, which called for protection from the pandemic.  The company had said it would work closely with the UAW in the coming weeks to restart plants and explore additional protocols & procedures to help prevent the spread of the virus.  General Motors (GM) closed its plants until Mar 30 & said it would evaluate the situation on a weekly basis after that.  “As we announced last week, the suspension will last until at least March 30,” according to a GM spokesperson.  “Production status will be reevaluated week-to-week after that.”  Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) also ceased operations at its plants across North America thr the end of Mar & will reevaluate the situation at the end of the hiatus.  New research from IHS Markit previously found that shuttered auto operations could reduce global production this year by more than 1.4M vehicles, creating an immediate cash crunch for automakers.  However, it wasn't clear whether production would resume after these initial closures, IHS Markit said.

Ford says it will not reopen its plants at the end of March, citing stay-at-home orders

Oil futures ended, extending their gain to a 2nd straight session, a day after the Federal Reserve unveiled a historic round of monetary stimulus & investors remained upbeat about prospects for a Congressional approval of a massive fiscal stimulus package.  The Fed yesterday announced it would purchase an unlimited amount of Treasurys & mortgage-backed securities to support the functioning of financial markets.  Meanwhile, investors remained upbeat over prospects for congress to approve a large stimulus plan as lawmakers continue to wrangle over details.  West Texas Intermediate crude for May climbed by 65¢ (2.8%) to settle at $24.01 a barrel.  May Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose 12¢ (0.4%) to $27.15 a barrel.  Despite yesterday's gains, analysts questioned whether the bounce in oil prices will prove sustainable in the face of a massive global demand hit from the COVID-19 pandemic & a surge in crude supply due to a price war between Saudi Arabia & Russia. 

Oil prices up a second session on Fed stimulus and optimism over fiscal package

Britain has become the latest European country to lockdown as the UK gov announced a raft of restrictions preventing the population from leaving home apart from four exceptions.  There is now a blanket travel restriction & police will have powers to fine or disperse people who venture onto the street for any other reason than to buy food, address any medical need, travel to a workplace for essential work, or undertake daily exercise.  These steps come as the UK death toll rose to 335.  All shops selling nonessential goods have been told to close & gatherings of more than 2 people in public who do not live in the same household have been banned.  Prime Minister Boris Johnson said: “I must give the British people a very simple instruction: You must stay at home. To ensure compliance with the government’s instruction to stay at home, we will immediately close all shops selling nonessential goods, including clothing and electronic stores and other premises, including libraries, playgrounds and outdoor gyms, and places of worship.”  Johnson had ramped up the nation's response to the outbreak last Fri, telling pubs, bars, restaurants, cafes, nightclubs, theaters, cinemas & gyms to close.  But he has been forced to go a step further after people were seen flouting his social-distancing recommendations over the weekend, with parks packed with people & buses & trains full of passengers.

Britain becomes latest country in lockdown as police enforce new restrictions

Gold prices posted their largest daily percentage surge in more than a decade as the precious metal extended its rally in the wake of the closure of gold mining operations & moves by the Federal Reserve to address the coronavirus crisis.  The Fed announced Mon that it would purchase an unlimited number of Treasuries & mortgage-backed securities to support the financial market.  Meanwhile, 3 of the world's largest gold refineries—Valcambi, Argor-Heraeus & PAMP—have suspended production in Switzerland for at least a week because of the mandatory closure of non-essential industry in the country to prevent the spread of coronavirus.  Together, the refineries process around a 1/3 of total global annual supply.  Gold for Apr rose $93 (6%) to settle at $1660 an ounce.  The yellow metal yesterday booked its largest one-day $ gain based on records dating back to 1984 & biggest daily percentage rise since 2009.

Gold up 6% in biggest climb for 11 years amid tight supplies and limitless monetary stimulus


The Dow had a stellar day, but that was after it had fallen over 11K from its record about a month ago.  Investors are anxious to see the stimulus package approved by Congress.  However, there have been numerous delays along the way & there is still no signed deal.  Assuming it's signed this evening, investors will be happy.  However more hard work is needed & there is even the possibility of the need for another stimulus package.  Enjoy today's market rise!!

Dow Jones Industrials








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