Friday, March 27, 2020

Markets trim losses after the House approves stimulus package

Dow finished down 915 (with selling into the close), decliners over advancers 3-1 & NAZ lost 295.  The MLP index fell 5+ to 86 & the REIT index was even in the 309s.  Junk bond funds continued mixed & Treasuries remained in demand by investors.  Oil dropped to the 21s & gold dropped 26 to 1625 (more on both below).

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The House of Representatives passed an unprecedented $2.2T coronavirus stimulus package, rushing the legislation to Pres Trump in hopes of providing relief for American workers & businesses left reeling from the tandem health & economic crises.  The House approved the measure by a voice vote, with the majorities of both parties supporting the largest relief bill in recent memory.  It will provide payments of up to $1200 to Ms of Americans, expand unemployment benefits, extend financial help for businesses both large & small, offer Bs to state & local govs & grant money to the nation's hard-hit hospitals.  “The American people deserve a government-wide, visionary, evidence-based response to address these threats to their lives and their livelihood," House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said.  "And they need it now."  Trump has promised to sign the bill "immediately."  White House officials & congressional leaders have suggested that some Americans will see direct payments of up to $1200 within 3 weeks.  The proposal comes at a key moment for the nose-diving economy:  Yesterday, the Labor Dept revealed that 3.3M filed unemployment claims last week after businesses across the country closed to slow the disease's spread, shattering a decades-old record.  Hospitals have been inundated with patients & have struggled to gain access to the necessary equipment & resources.  The US has more than 94K coronavirus cases, the most in the world, according to a database compiled by Johns Hopkins University.  There have been 1438 deaths related to the virus in the country.

House passes historic $2T stimulus in virus response, sends to Trump


The Trump administration wants to open the country back up as quickly as possible, but will make sure it's safe first.  “We are going to do it responsibly,” VP Mike Pence said.  “We’re going to do it based on data."  He added that some parts of the country could be opened up before others & that the data will be reviewed on a county-by-county basis.  The COVID-19 pandemic has infected 86K in the US & killed 1300, according to the latest data provided by Johns Hopkins University & Medicine.  More than ½ of the nation's confirmed cases are from the NY metropolitan area.  "There's gonna be areas of the country where we just we have to support our governors and mitigation efforts have to stay very strong and in some cases even become stronger," the VP added.  "But for much of the country, where the outbreak is very limited, the president is anxious to give guidance based on the data to our governors so that they can decide whether it be reopening businesses or reopening schools."  Pence said the best thing people can do to help slow the pandemic is to put into practice Trump's "15 Days to Slow the Spread" guidelines.  Practices include listening to state & local authorities, staying home if you fell sick, using good hygiene & avoiding social gatherings.

Pence: US will be reopened 'responsibly'


IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva said that the global economy is now in a recession thanks to COVID-19, but that she's heartened to see world leaders finally realizing that only a coordinated effort will be able to stem the spread of the novel coronavirus.  “We have stated that the world is now in recession and that the length and depth of this recession depend on two things: Containing the virus and having an effective, coordinated response to the crisis,” she said.  “I’m very encouraged by what I see now. I see much clearer understanding [among global leaders] that if we don’t beat it everywhere we won’t be able to get out of it,” she added.  “We should not go ... with small measures now when we know that it is a gigantic crisis,” she continued.  “We’ve never seen the world economy standing still. Now we [do]. How we go about revitalizing it is another important topic.”  The IMF has taken extraordinary measures in recent weeks to help combat the economic toll COVID-19, & efforts to contain its spread, has had on economies around the globe.  On Mar 16 the intl body said it “stands ready” to use its $1T lending capacity to help countries around the world that are struggling with the humanitarian & economic impact of the novel coronavirus.   Georgieva wrote at the time that such support could be used to aid its members, especially emerging & developing countries.  The IMF's Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust “can help the poorest countries with immediate debt relief, which will free up vital resources for health spending, containment, and mitigation.”  Her comments came near the end of yet another violent week in the stock market. The S&P 500 & Dow are up more than 10% this week after the Federal Reserve moved to pump cash into the US economy through historic easing policies & zero-interest loans.

IMF chief Georgieva says the world is in a recession

American consumers' confidence in the economy is deteriorating as anxiety over the coronavirus takes hold.  The Univ of Mich index of consumer sentiment dropped to 89.1 in Mar from 101.0 in Feb.  That’s the lowest level in more than 3 years & the monthly decline is among the worst on record.  The forecast called for a slightly less severe drop to 90.0.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Drops to Lowest Level in More Than 3 Years


Oil prices tumbled after Saudi Arabia said it hasn't recently held talks with Russia to end a price war that began earlier this month.  Brent crude oil, the intl benchmark, plunged 6% to $24.77 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate crude oil, the US benchmark, slid 4.9% to $21.50.  The 2 countries have had no “discussion of a joint agreement to balance oil markets,” the Saudi Energy Ministry said.  Crude oil prices crashed into a bear market this year after Russia refused to join Saudi Arabia & other OPEC members in cutting production to trim a supply glut due to demand destruction from the COVID-19 pandemic.  Saudi Arabia responded to Russia's refusal by lowering prices for its customers & increasing output, despite declining sales as govs responded to the disease by ordering the temporary closure of businesses and the cancellation of non-essential travel.  Crude oil prices crashed into a bear market this year after Russia refused to join Saudi Arabia & other OPEC members in cutting production to trim a supply glut due to demand destruction from the COVID-19 pandemic.  Saudi Arabia responded to Russia’s refusal by lowering prices for its customers & increasing output, despite declining sales as gos responded to the disease by ordering the temporary closure of businesses & the cancellation of non-essential travel.

Oil plunges again after talks stall between Saudis, Russians


Gold futures settled with a loss today but still scored the biggest weekly rise in more than 11 years in a rebound fueled in part by a weaker $ & concerns about disruptions in the physical market for the precious metal.  Gold for Apr fell $26 (1.6%) to settle at $1625 an ounce.  For the week, prices for the most-active contract rose 9.5%, which marked the biggest weekly rise since 2008.  Downbeat US economic data failed to provide support for haven gold.  The final results for US consumer sentiment index fell to 89.1 in Mar from a preliminary 95.9 & 101.0 in the prior month, according to the Univ of Mich.

Gold scores biggest weekly gain since 2008


This was an usually wild week for stocks.  The Dow finished up 2400 this week, dragged down by selling in the last ½ of trading today.  Trump should be signing the stimulus package as this is written.  Investors feel better than they did last week.  However, the data on COVID-19 is troubling, although the news seems to be getting better.  The money from the bill needs to reach people & troubled businesses quickly to do good.  There are no shortage of unknowns for investors.  Plan for extremely high volatility in stock market next week.

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