Wednesday, December 23, 2020

Markets after jobless claims improve

Dow went up 185, advancers over decliners 5-2 & NAZ inched up 1.  The MLP index rose 2+ to the 144s & the REIT index added 1+ to the 369s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were sold.  Oil rebounded 1 to 48 & gold climbed 7 to 1877.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

CL=FCrude Oil47.79
 +0.77+1.6%






























GC=FGold   1,877.60
 +7.30+0.4%

































 

 




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House Dems are planning to force a vote this week on increasing the size of the stimulus checks included in the $900B coronavirus relief package after Pres Trump demanded Congress raise the payments from $600 to $2000 per adult.  Trump called the proposed stimulus checks of $600 included in the economic relief bill that Congress passed yesterday "ridiculously low" & said the payments should be more than tripled — a proposal that many Dems immediately lined up behind“I’m in. Whaddya say, Mitch?” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer tweeted. “Let’s not get bogged down with ideological offsets and unrelated items and just DO THIS! The American people deserve it.”  "At last, the president has agreed to $2,000," House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said.  "Democrats are ready to bring this to the floor this week by unanimous consent. Let's do it!"  A source said that Dems will attempt to pass a standalone bill for $2000 direct payments tomorrow, although it's unclear whether it would receive the unanimous consent needed to pass in the House or clear the Rep-controlled Senate.  Under House & Senate rules, a measure can pass each individual chamber so long as no one member objects.  Sen Ron Johnson last week blocked a similar effort by Sen. Josh Hawley, to pass a proposal that would have sent a 2nd cash payment of up to $1200 to Ms of adults & $500 checks to their children.  But some GOP lawmakers signaled a willingness to work with Dems to give the pres what he wanted.  Sen Lindsey Graham said he does "appreciate" Pelosi's willingness to support Trump's "idea to increase direct payments."  "The American people are hurting and deserve relief," Graham said. "I know there is much bipartisan support for this idea. Let’s go further."

House Dems will try to pass $2K stimulus checks this week

The number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits fell for the first time in 3 weeks but remained elevated as a rise in COVID-19 infections & new restrictions to help curb the spread of the virus weighed on the economy.  Figures by the Labor Dept show 803K Americans filed first-time jobless claims last week, lower than the 885K forecast.  The number is nearly 4 times the pre-crisis level but is well below the peak of almost 7M that was reached when stay-at-home orders were first issued in Mar.  Almost 70M Americans, or about 40% of the labor force, have filed for unemployment benefits during the pandemic.  The number of people who are continuing to receive unemployment benefits fell to 5.3M, a decline of about 170,K from the previous week.  The report shows that roughly 20.4M Americans were receiving some kind of jobless benefit thru Dec 5.

803,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week

What was expected to be a mundane year in the mortgage market was anything but:  A sharp downturn in demand for housing at the start of the pandemic took a hairpin turn & just kept rising, & the average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage set no less than 15 record lows.  Mortgage demand ended the year significantly higher than 2019, but appears to be cooling off a bit for the holidays.  Total mortgage application volume rose 0.8% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted index.  Mortgage rates ended just 1 basis point higher than the latest record low.  The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($510K or less) increased to 2.86% from 2.85%, with points remaining unchanged at 0.33 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment.  That is a full percentage point lower than it was a year ago.  Low rates continue to fuel refinance volume, which rose 4% for the week and was a stunning 124% higher than a year ago.  The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 74.8% of total applications from 72.7% the previous week.  Mortgage applications to purchase a home fell 5% for the week but were 26% higher than a year ago.  That is the 2nd decrease in 3 weeks, as potential buyers run up against a severe housing shortage 3 fast-rising prices.  The supply of homes for sale at the end of Nov fell to a record low, according to a report from the National Association of Realtors.  The average loan balance for purchase applications last week set another record high at $376K.  That's because the bulk of the sales activity is on the higher end of the market, where supply is more plentiful.  The low end is seeing the weakest supply & the strongest price gains, hurting affordability.

Homebuyer demand for mortgages eases to end a record-breaking 2020

Since the jobless claims report was filed a day earlier than usual, it's possible that there could be a downward revision next week.  Even without that, it has pretty much tended sideways for many weeks.  The status of the relief package is more important.  For the time being it is stuck in the mud because those guys in DC are more concerned about funding their pet projects which most American don't care about.  As usual, they will have to perform last minute magic to make the relief bill happen.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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