Tuesday, December 1, 2020

Markets pare gains after McConnell casts doubts about new stimulus bill

Dow gained 185, advancers over decliners 5-2 & NAZ went up 156.  The MLP index added 1+ to 137 & the REIT index climbed 4+ to 371.  Junk bond funds rose with stocks & Treasuries continued weak.  Oil slid back to the 44s & gold surged 37 to the 1818 (more on both below).

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Hospital leaders in North Carolina & Ohio said they will soon be ready to distribute a coronavirus vaccine once emergency use authorization is granted by US regulators.  Atrium Health CEO Eugene Woods said the Charlotte-based health network is “locked and loaded” to combat the Covid-19 pandemic thru vaccinations.  “We have refrigeration units that can store up on Day One 300,000 vials,” Woods said.  “We also are training staff as we speak.”  2 coronavirus vaccines are awaiting clearance from the Food & Drug Administration (FDA), putting the complex logistics of distributing them into sharp focus.  “We are ready. We are anxious for the vaccine,” OhioHealth CEO Dr Stephen Markovich said alongside Woods in the same segment. OhioHealth, a 12-hospital system based in Columbus, is operating 2 of the state's 10 prepositioning sites for the vaccine.  The state health dept chose the locations based on a number of factors, including geography & access to ultra-cold storage freezers.  “We’re working on the protocols, working through the triaging of people, and it’s going to be an exciting time. It’s really, hopefully, going to be the beginning of the end” of the pandemic, Markovich said.  “It won’t be easy. It’s not going to be fast. It’s going to be complicated, but I really think it’s going to be an exciting time.”  The FDA is likely to authorize a vaccine for limited use at first & shipments could start before the end of the year.  A Centers for Disease Control & Prevention panel intends to vote Tues on who should receive the vaccine first.  High-risk populations & health-care workers should be the highest priorities, public health officials & medical experts have said.

‘We are ready’ — hospitals are prepared to receive Covid vaccines in a few weeks

Fewer holiday shoppers bought gifts during the five-day period from Black Friday to Cyber Monday & those who did spent less as discounts started early this year, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF).  The retail trade group said about 186M shoppers bought holiday gifts, food or decorations from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday.  That's less than the 189M shoppers who bought items during that period last year, but higher than the 166M who shopped in 2018.  Over the weekend, average spending on gifts, decorations & food was $312 down, about $50 from last year.  NRF Pres Matt Shay said shoppers concentrated less of their shopping during the weekend since many began buying items in Oct.  Yet he said Americans are still enthusiastic about celebrating the season & indicated that they have half of their shopping to finish.  “We have seen that pretty much whatever segment, whatever brand, one consistent theme is that consumers have gotten a head start on holiday shopping,” Shay said.  This year, online shopping played a more important role for retailers during Black Friday weekend.  Shay said about 57% of holiday shoppers indicated they plan to shop more online because of the pandemic.  Those new habits cut across consumers of all ages & backgrounds, he added.  “As the coronavirus cases have spiked across the country over the past few weeks, we continue to see consumers prioritize their personal health and safety as well as public health and the health of the communities in which they live and work,” Shay said.  “They continue to adjust their shopping behavior online to avoid large crowds.”  The number of shoppers who bought items online only during the weekend increased by 44% to 96M shoppers.

Black Friday weekend spending drops as season starts early, trade group says

Oil futures fell with US prices settling at their lowest in just over a week as OPEC & their allies postponed a decision on output cuts to Thurs.  Jan West Texas Intermediate crude fell 79¢ (1.7%) to settle at $44.55 a barrel, the lowest front-month finish since Nov 23,

Oil futures fall to lowest finish in over a week

Gold futures bounced off a 5-month low to log the sharpest one-day gain in more than 3 weeks, buoyed by a sharp decline in the $.  Prices also got a boost from light ISM data.  The Institute for Supply Management said its US manufacturing index fell to 57.5% in Nov from a 21-month high of 59.3% in the prior month.  Feb gold rose $38 (2.1%) to settle at $1818 an ounce.  That was the largest single-session $ & percentage gain for a most-active contract since Nov 5.  Prices had declined by 0.4% yesterday to $1780, marking the lowest settlement since Jul 1.  They logged a 5.6% decline in Nov.  Some dealers say that a “technical breakdown” of gold prices that had come on the back of progress toward a COVID-19 vaccine has run its course & could pave the way for a reassertion of bullish momentum in the commodity.

Gold prices log biggest daily jump in over 3 weeks

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell rejected a proposed bipartisan stimulus package amid months of congressional inaction on curbing the economic damage from the outbreak.  McConnell, who has supported about $500B in new aid spending, said he wants to pass what he called a “targeted relief bill” this year.  McConnell said he spoke to White House officials about what Pres Trump would sign into law.  He plans to offer potential solutions to GOP senators & get their feedback.  “We just don’t have time to waste time,” he said in response to the $908B plan put together by bipartisan members of the GOP-controlled Senate & Dem-held House.  He said a must-pass spending bill & pandemic relief provisions will “all likely come in one package.”  Congress needs to approve funding legislation by Dec 11 to avoid a gov shutdown.  The framework of the bipartisan relief bill released yesterday includes $288B in small business aid such as Paycheck Protection Program loans, $160B in state & local gov relief & $180B to fund a $300 per week supplemental unemployment benefit thru Mar.  It would put $16B into vaccine distribution, testing & contact tracing, funnel $82B into education & put $45B into transportation.  It would allocate funds for rental assistance, child care & broadband.  The proposal would not include another direct payment to most Americans. It also would offer temporary federal protection from coronavirus-related lawsuits — a provision Dems have opposed — while states determine their own laws.

McConnell shoots down bipartisan $900 billion coronavirus stimulus plan as stalemate drags on

The US economy will continue to expand but at a painstakingly incremental rate until the coronavirus pandemic is under control, said San Francisco Fed Pres Mary Daly.  “I am assuming a slow grinding recovery persists until we have the virus fully behind us — which is predicated on a vaccine that is widely available and distributed,” Daly said.  Some economists are concerned there could be another economic contraction in coming months.  But Daly said she only thought there would be a modest slowing as growth plateaued due to the resurgence of the coronavirus in recent weeks.  Cautious optimism in the stock market that the economy will be past the coronavirus by the middle of 2021 is a positive sign, but Daly said she's keeping her eye on the current state of employment & inflation.  “I’m just very interested in attending to the economy we have, while we wait for the economy of the future,” she said.  Daly thought Fed policy was in a good place.  The Fed has cut its benchmark interest rate to zero and is buying $120B each month of Treasuries & mortgage-related assets to support financial markets & bolster growth.  Some analysts think the Fed will tweak its bond-buying to weight it toward more longer-dated debt.

Fed’s Daly sees ‘slow grinding recovery’ until the coronavirus is fully behind us

After hope for a stimulus bill coming from those guys in DC, doubts just returned.  Time is running out as the yearend approaches   However others are getting ready to handle the Ms of vaccine doses which should be available soon.  Investors remain optimimstic, although that cooled in the last hour of trading.

Dow Jones Industrials








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