Friday, December 4, 2020

Markets rise on renewed hopes for a stimulus package

Dow climbed 248 to a new record, advancers over decliners better than 3-1 & NAZ added 87 for another record.  The MLP index zoomed 5+ to the 152s & the REIT index gained 5+ to the 375s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries continued to be sold.  Oil went over 47 & gold was about even at 1840 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said today that new coronavirus relief measures could be attached to the omnibus spending bill that Congress needs to pass by next week in order to avoid a gov shutdown.  Speaking to reporters Pelosi said that she spoke with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell yesterday about merging the spending bill & emergency relief for families & workers still reeling from the pandemic.  McConnell has also endorsed tying the 2 together as one package.  Her comments came after a bipartisan, bicameral group of lawmakers unveiled a $908B COVID relief framework earlier this week that]s garnered the support of Pelosi & Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, as well as Pres-elect Joe Biden.  Pelosi said the proposal could be a "basis for real bicameral negotiations" & could "take us very close to something we can put into the omnibus."  "There is momentum," she said, adding:  "We saw a framework, now they have to get it into text. We'll take the time we need, and we'll get it done. We must get it done before we leave. We cannot leave without it."  Pelosi & Schumer's endorsement of the narrower deal is a stark reversal from previous months when they maintained that at least $2.2T is needed in new spending.  But Pelosi defended her decision to back the smaller proposal, citing Biden's victory in the 2020 election & the development of 2 seemingly effective vaccines, which she called an "answer to our prayers."  "That is a total gamechanger," she said.  "A new president and a vaccine."  The bipartisan proposal, which has also been endorsed by the House Problem Solvers Caucus, allocates about $300B in funding for small businesses thru the Paycheck Protection Program, $240B in aid for state & local govs, $180B to extend boosted unemployment benefits at $300 per week thru Mar & a temporary moratorium on COVID liability lawsuits to allow states enough time to design their own laws.  It would also funnel $16B into vaccine distribution, testing & contact tracing, put $82B into education & give $45B for transportation.  The deal notably does not include a 2nd stimulus check.  Still, with just 5 legislative days left on their calendar, it's unclear whether lawmakers will be able to overcome key sticking points that have confounded them since the summer.

Pelosi says coronavirus relief could be attached to government spending bill

Gold futures ended lower, with progress on coronavirus vaccine development & distribution helping to dull the metal's haven appeal, but prices scored a gain for the week on renewed talks for a US coronavirus fiscal stimulus package from Congress.  Prices for the metal saw volatile trading today, having declined in the immediate wake of the the Nov report on US job creation, then moving higher before falling to fresh session lows.  Gold had finished Mon at a 5=month low & settled at a nearly 2-week high yesterday.  Feb gold lost $1 to settle at $1840 an ounce, after gaining 0.7% yesterday to mark the highest finish for a most-active contract since Nov 20.  Prices for the yellow metal, based on the most-active contract, saw a 2.9% gain for the week, which snapped a 3-week losing streak.  In US economic data, the economy regained 245K jobs in Nov & the unemployment rate declined again, the gov said today, but hiring fell to a 7-month low & a record rise in coronavirus cases is making it harder for people to return to work.  The increase in jobs last month fell short of the 432K forecast.  At the start of this week, growing hope surrounding COVID-19 vaccine progress had precipitated a drop in gold prices to their lowest since early Jul.  However, a steady bout of weakness in the $ has emboldened gold bulls, as has the prospect of a fresh round of fiscal aid in the US to combat the economic damage from the viral outbreak—both seen as bolstering appetite for gold.  Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said yesterday that reaching a compromise on another coronavirus fiscal stimulus package was possible, as long as Dems moved toward Rep positions.

Gold ends lower on vaccine developments, but posts a weekly gain on U.S. stimulus talks

Boeing (BA), a Dow stock, has further trimmed its production target for 787 Dreamliner output to 5 a month in mid-2021 from six as intl travel demand suffers in the coronavirus pandemic, CFO Greg Smith said.  Intl passenger traffic is around 90% lower compared with last year, Smith said, impacting the “overall near-term demand for the wide-body markets.”   The planes are used on long-haul intl routes, which are the last to recover because of the virus & a host of travel restrictions.  BA got a boost from budget European carrier Ryanair yesterday when it announced it was buying an additional 75 Max jets on top the 135 it already ordered.  The stock fell 4.54.
If you would like to learn more about BA, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/BA?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7   

Boeing further trims 787 production target, citing pandemic, slower deliveries

Oil futures rose, with prices up a 5th week in a row, & the global benchmark settling at its highest since early Mar.  The moves come a day after OPEC & allies (OPEC+) agreed to unwind production cuts more gradually than originally planned.  After protracted negotiations, OPEC+ announced Thurs that it reached an agreement to pare current production cuts of 7.7M barrels per day to 7.2M barrels per day beginning in Jan, effectively allowing output to rise by only 500K barrels a day.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Jan delivery rose 62¢ (1.4%) to settle at $46.26 a barrel.  Prices based on the front-month contract logged a weekly gain of 1.6%, their 5th consecutive weekly climb.  Feb Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose 54¢ (1.1%) at $49.25 a barrel.  Prices were up by 2.1% from the week-ago settlement & marked their highest finish since Mar.

Oil prices up 5 straight weeks to 9-month high after OPEC+ deal to only slowly unwind output cuts

Demand for stocks continues to be strong.  The virus vaccines will be available shortly & those guys in DC may even come up with a stimulus package attached to a bill which would fund gov spending for a few more months.  The Dow is up almost 600 in the first 4 days of Dec & investors want this to be the beginning of a Santa Claus rally.

Dow Jones Industrials








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