Monday, December 7, 2020

Markets drift lower as Congress reviews coronavirus relief bill

Dow dropped 136, decliners over advancers 5-4 & NAZ went up 67.  The MLP index was off 1+ to the 151s & the REIT index fell 1+ to 374.  Junk bond funds were sold & the Treasuries rose in price.  Oil slid below 46 & gold soared 29 to 1869.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)








CL=FCrude Oil45.65
   -0.61 -1.3%
















GC=F Gold 1,865.30
+25.30+1.4%























 




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Bipartisan lawmakers are set to unveil more details on a proposed coronavirus relief bill  as they look to break a months-long stalemate over another round of emergency aid in the few days Congress has left to act.  The $908B proposal will likely be attached to the larger omnibus spending bill needed to avert a gov shutdown on Dec 11.  Pelosi & Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer endorsed the narrower deal last week —a stark reversal from previous months when they maintained that at least $2.2T is needed in new spending — spurring hope that lawmakers would be able to strike a deal before the end of the month.  Pres Trump & Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell are also expected to back the bill.  “President Trump has indicated that he would sign a $908 billion package — there’s only one $908 billion package out there and it’s ours,” said Sen Bill Cassidy, who helped design the framework.   “The pain of the American people is driving this, and I’m optimistic that both those leaders will come on board.”  The bipartisan proposal, which has also been endorsed by the House Problem Solvers Caucus, allocates about $300B in funding for small businesses through the Paycheck Protection Program, $240B in aid for state & local govs, $180B to extend boosted unemployment benefits at $300 per week through Mar & a temporary moratorium on COVID liability lawsuits to allow states enough time to design their own laws.  It would also funnel $16B into vaccine distribution, testing & contact tracing, put $82B into education & $45B for transportation.

Bipartisan coronavirus bill to boost jobless aid, won't include stimulus check

China's exports rose at the fastest pace since Feb 2018 in Nov, helped by strong global demand & as the factory recovery from the coronavirus in the world's 2nd-largest economy outpaced those of its major trading partners.  Exports in Nov rose 21.1% from a year earlier, customs data showe soundly beating expectations for a 12.0% increase & quickening from an 11.4% increase in Oct.  Imports rose 4.5% year-on-year in Nov, slower than Oct's 4.7% growth, & underperforming expectations for a 6.1% increase, but still marking a 3rd straight month of expansion.  Improving domestic demand & higher commodity prices helped buoy the reading.  That has led to a trade surplus for Nov of $75.4B, the largest since at least 1981 & wider than the forecast for a $53.5B surplus & $58.4B surplus in Oct.  Booming sales of fridges, toasters & microwaves to households across the locked-down world have helped propel China's manufacturing engine back to life, super-charging demand for key metals like steel, copper & aluminium, after a sharp slump early in the year.  In another sign of brisk trade, China's export surge & the low turnaround rate of containers from abroad have triggered a recent shortage of containers domestically, state media China Daily reported.  A spate of early month economic data showed China's economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic has stepped up, with manufacturing surveys showing new export orders expanding at a faster pace for Nov.  But some analysts cautioned that surging infections & fresh lockdowns in some key trading partners could dent demand for Chinese goods.

Chinese exports rose at fastest pace in November since February 2018: report

Hundreds of business groups are pushing lawmakers to allow Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) borrowers to write off expenses covered by loan proceeds.  “We ask that you bring that same spirit of urgency and cooperation before the end of this session to prevent an avoidable catastrophe for millions of small businesses that, without Congressional action, will face a surprising, and, in many cases, insurmountable tax bill next year,” the trade associations wrote in a letter to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi & Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.  In all, more than 560 business groups, including the American Institute of CPAs, signed off on the letter to lawmakers.  Specifically, the letter writers want Congress to enact legislation before the end of the year that includes a technical correction to address the tax treatment businesses face when PPP loan balances are forgiven.  Congress has spent the week hammering out the details of the next Covid relief package.  Recipients of PPP loans are generally eligible for loan forgiveness if they use at least 60% of the proceeds to cover payroll costs.  Those that fall short of the threshold may be eligible to have part of the balance wiped.  Though forgiveness of this loan is tax-free, the IRS has said that borrowers can't write off expenses covered by a PPP loan that's forgiven.  This would result in higher taxes unless Congress acts, the business organizations said in their letter to lawmakers.  “The effect of this ruling is to transform tax-free loan forgiveness into taxable income, raising the specter of a surprise tax increase of up to 37% on small businesses when they file their taxes for 2020,” the business groups wrote. 

Trade groups push lawmakers for deductibility of PPP loan business expenses

It looks like the relief is getting serious attention by those guys in DC & may be passed shortly.  But it hasn't been signed yet, so there will be more wrangling.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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