Thursday, December 3, 2020

Markets climbed higher after jobless claims top estimates

Dow went up 159, advancers over decliners about 3-1 & NAZ gained 47.  The MLP index rose 3+ to the 145s & the REIT index advanced 3+ to 371.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries rose along with stocks.  Oil was up pennies in the 45s & gold inched up 1 ti 1831.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

CL=FCrude Oil45.19
 -0.09
 -0.2%


















GC=FGold   1,839.10
+8.90+0.5%















 

 




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The number of Americans applying for state unemployment benefits dropped last week, even as a surge in coronavirus cases & colder weather continue to threaten the labor market's recovery from the pandemic.  The latest jobless claims figures from the Labor Dept show that 712K workers sought aid last week, about 3 times the pre-crisis level.  Still, it's well below the peak of nearly 7M in late Mar, when states first implemented lockdown measures to curb the spread of COVID-19.  The estimate  called for 775K new claims.  It marked a decrease from the upwardly revised figure of 787K one week ago.  Close to 68M Americans  roughly 40% of the nation's labor force ‒ have applied for aid since the coronavirus lockdowns began in mid-Mar.  The number of people who are continuing to receive unemployment benefits fell for the 10th consecutive week to 5.52M, a decline of about 569K from the previous week.  The decline suggests that employers are calling their workers back.  Still, some of the drop in continuing claims may represent workers who have used up the maximum number of payments available thru state unemployment programs (typically about 6 months) & are now receiving benefits thru a separate federal program that extends the aid by 13 weeks.  Congress created the extra federal benefits earlier this year with the passage of the CARES Act.  But those key federal jobless aid programs created in Mar are slated to expire at the end of the year, leaving about 12M workers with no income on Dec 26.

Another 712,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi & Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer embraced a bipartisan $908B coronavirus relief deal as the starting point for negotiations with Reps, a major concession that comes as Congress struggles to send aid to Americans before the end of the year.  In a joint statement, the Dem leaders, who for months have refused to go below $2.2T, signaled they were open to a smaller bill as outside pressure builds on lawmakers to strike a deal.  "In the spirit of compromise, we believe the bipartisan framework introduced by Senators yesterday should be used as the basis for immediate bipartisan, bicameral negotiations," they wrote.  "Of course, we and others will offer improvements, but the need to act is immediate and we believe that with good-faith negotiations we could come to an agreement."  The $908B framework, unveiled by a bipartisan group of senators, allocates about $300B in funding for small businesses thru the Paycheck Protection Program, $240 B in aid for state & local govs, $180B to extend boosted unemployment benefits at $300 per week thr Mar a temporary moratorium on COVID liability lawsuits to allow states enough time to design their own laws.  It would also funnel $16B into vaccine distribution, testing & contact tracing, put $82B into education & give $45B for transportation.  The deal notably does not include a 2nd stimulus check.  Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell quickly rejected the plan on Tues & stood by his "highly targeted" $500B proposal.  He also said that a spending bill needed to avoid a gov shutdown on Dec 11 & pandemic relief provisions will "all likely come in one package.”  “We just don’t have time to waste time,” he said.

Pelosi, Schumer endorse $908B COVID relief deal as basis for negotiations

Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said that he has spoken with Janet Yellen, Pres-elect Biden's pick to lead the dept next year, as part of the White House transition process.  Mnuchin told the House Financial Services Committee during his 2nd day testifying on Capitol Hill that he discussed with Yellen, the former chair of the Federal Reserve, the impending expiration of several central bank lending programs that have been used since their inception in the Mar CARES Act to stabilize the nation's pandemic-stricken economy.  His decision to allow the programs the end on Dec 31 has emerged as a source of controversy in recent weeks.   Dem lawmakers accused Mnuchin this week of trying to sabotage the incoming Biden administration by prematurely stopping the funding & denying them a vital tool to rehabilitate the economy.  But Mnuchin has maintained that he does not have the authority to extend the programs, citing portions of the law that indicate they are intended to lapse on Dec 31.  Reps have applauded the move, arguing the programs were designed "to be temporary, to provide liquidity, and to cease operations no later than the end of 2020."  The unspent money, about $455B, will be placed in the Treasury Dept's General Fund.  That means if Mnuchin's successor — Yellen, if she is confirmed by Congress — wants to access that money, she will need to receive Congress' blessing.  Shifting the money to the General Fund leaves just under $80B available in the Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund.

Yellen, Mnuchin have spoken as part of White House transition process

It looks like those guys in DC are getting serious on the relief bill which has been languishing for months.  Investors are happy & buying stocks.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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