Friday, February 5, 2021

Markets climb higher with Nasdaq reaching a new record

Dow went up 92, advancers over decliners 2-1 & NAZ rose 78.  The MLP index was steady in the 149s & the REIT index added 1+ to the 384s.  Junk bond funds inched higher while Treasuries remained weak.  Oil rose to just under 67 & gold recovered 21 to 1812 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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Ford (F) reported a wider-than-expected quarterly loss, but the stock traded higher as on the auto maker's renewed push toward autonomous & electric vehicles.  Ford  lost $2.8B (70¢ a share) in the qtr, compared with a loss of $1.7B (42¢ a share) a year-ago.  Sales fell to $36B from $39.7B a year ago.  The forecast called for Ford to report a GAAP & adjusted loss of 7¢ a share on sales of $36.8B.  Ford said it increased its “commitment to invest in growth,” planning to spend more than $22B in electric vehicles (EV) & $7B in autonomous vehicles.  The investment in EVs is nearly double an earlier allocation.  “The transformation of Ford is happening and so is our leadership of the EV revolution and development of autonomous driving,” CEO Jim Farley said.  In Q4, Ford began US sales of its the all-electric Mustang, the Bronco Sport & 2021 F-150 pickup.  These vehicles, alongside the return of the Ford Bronco this summer, are expected to be “significant contributors to 2021 results,” the company said.  Ford is on track to earn $8-9B in adjusted EBIT in 2021, & generate $3.5-4.5B in adjusted free cash flow, Lawler said.  The stock went up 14¢
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club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/F?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Ford reports quarterly loss that tops $2 billion, increases investment in electric vehicles 

Pres Biden continued to make the case for his $1.9T relief plan, with his pitch coming after a monthly employment report showed the US economy added a meager 49K jobs in Jan.  Biden said he would prefer to have Rep support for his plan, but he would opt for having it pass the Dem-run House & Senate quickly on party-line votes over negotiating with GOP lawmakers.  “If I have to choose between getting help right now to Americans who are hurting so badly and getting bogged down in a lengthy negotiation, or compromising on a bill that’s up to the crisis, that’s an easy choice. I’m going to help the American people who are hurting now,” he said.

Biden says he could deliver $1.9 trillion aid package without Republican support

Gold & silver futures recovered a little, capping a volatile week for precious metals, after a weaker-than-expected monthly update on US employment lent support for approval of a second COVID-19 fiscal stimulus plan in Congress.  For the week, prices for the yellow metal managed to pare its losses, while sister metal silver posted a modest climb.  The US regained 49K jobs in Jan & the unemployment rate fell to 6.3% from 6.7%, but meager gains underscore a slow recovery for the economy in the throes of the COVID-19 pandemic.  The downbeat data may further boost the likelihood for a 2nd COVID-19 economic stimulus package, which would create more debt & weaken the value of the $, lifting demand for $-denominated gold prices.  Against the backdrop, gold for Apr rose $21 (1.2%) to settle at $1813 an ounce, after dropping 2.4% yesterday to mark the lowest settlement since late Nov.  For the week, most-active contract prices lost 2%.  Mar silver added 79¢ (3%) to end at $27.02 an ounce, after the metal also skidded by 2.4% in the prior session.  Prices rose 1.8% on Wed, following a more than 10% decline for futures Tues.  For the week, they settled up by about 0.4%.  Over the week, gold & silver prices were hammered by rising US bond yields & a stronger $.  $-pegged assets like gold tend to slump when the currency strengthens because they become comparatively more expensive to own for overseas buyers.  The prospects for a middling economic rebound, at least in H1, sets a bullish pathway for gold, some strategists argue.

Gold pares weekly loss as silver ends the week higher

The House of Representatives passed an updated budget resolution sent over from the Senate that paves the way for Dems to push thru Pres Biden's $1.9T coronavirus relief package without needing any GOP support.  The vote was 219-209 to adopt the budget framework that the Senate approved earlier today thanks to a tie-breaking vote cast by VP Kamala Harris.  The measure unlocks the process for lawmakers to now draft a final coronavirus relief bill under the budget reconciliation rules that would let Dems avoid a GOP filibuster & pass the major stimulus legislation on their own as long as their caucus remains united.  House Speaker Nancy Pelosi & Dem leaders huddled with Biden at the White House today.  Pressed on whether they'd finalize the major aid package before Mar 14 when the current unemployment insurance benefits expire, Pelosi was confident about meeting the deadline.  "Absolutely," Pelosi said.  "Without any question. Before then."  Now the relevant House congressional committees get to work on drafting the details of coronavirus relief legislation & will send the text to the Budget Committee by the end of next week, Pelosi said.  There, the Budget Committee will package all the proposals into one bill & make sure it meets all the parliamentary requirements necessary in the Senate to pass a bill by budget reconciliation.  This process allows Dem to approve the relief bill with a simple majority vote & avoid the traditional 60-vote threshold needed to advance most legislation.  Once passing muster in the Budget Committee, the coronavirus relief legislation would then head to a final vote in House & then to the Senate.  Pelosi said she hopes passage will take just about "two weeks."  "Around that time, we hope to be able to put vaccines in people's arms and money in people's pockets," Pelosi added.  The legislation is expected to include more direct payments, money for vaccine distribution, aid for school reopenings & help for struggling businesses.  "This is about people's lives," Biden said today.  Reps want a smaller relief package & balked at the price tag of Biden's $1.9T proposal, especially since Congress just passed a relief bill in Dec.  Rep Michael Burgess said it's been "disappointing" that Dems are using a "partisan process" to pass coronavirus relief when Biden just last month was calling for unity during his inauguration.  The budget reconciliation resolution "will drastically increase the deficit [and] seek to implement nonessential partisan policies," Burgess added.

Houses passes budget resolution for coronavirus relief

Oil futures climbed again, to score big weekly gains as Brent crude prices pushed toward $60 a barrel, their highest level in over a year, boosted in part by ongoing signs of strong demand & production restraint by OPEC countries.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Mar rose 75¢ (1.3%) to $56.98 a barrel, leaving front-month US benchmark prices on track for an 9.1% weekly gain.  Apr Brent crude, the global benchmark, advanced 61¢ (1%) to $59.45 a barrel, up 8% for the week.  Prices, based on the front-month contract, score a 6th straight session gain, the longest streak of climbs since the 7-session rise ended Jun 2020.  Oil futures had extended their streak of gains yesterday, with US prices up for a 4th consecutive session to mark their highest settlement in more than a year.  Oil prices remained underpinned by expectations that OPEC & its allies (OPEC+) will continue keeping a lid on output, as the global economy makes headway toward a recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.  OPEC+ made no changes to output curbs at a monthly ministerial committee meeting Wed & said its “optimistic for a year of recovery” in 2021.

Oil futures settle higher, with U.S. prices up 9% for the week

Weaker data on the economy today is being viewed as helpful to get another stimulus package approved.  Stocks had a good week, recovering from the prior week's decline.  The Dow finished the week just below its record & NAZ hit another record.  Next week, those guys in DC will get to work on the stimulus package.

Dow Jones Industrials








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