Dow went up 63, decliners slightly ahead of advancers & NAZ was off 47. The MLP index rose 2+ to 156 & the REIT index fell 3+ to the 386s. Junk bond funds hardly budged in price & Treasuries continued to be sold. Oil topped 60, with demand helped by the winter storm in Texas, & gold dropped 28 to 1794 (more on both below).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
The New York Fed's Empire State business conditions index rose 8.6 points to 12.1 in Feb, the regional Fed bank said. This is the highest level of activity since Jul. The forecast expected a reading of 5.9. Any reading above zero indicates improving conditions. The new orders index rose 4.2 points to 10.8 in Feb, while shipments fell 3.3 points to 4 & unfilled orders rose 8.1 points to 2.6. Prices paid for goods jumped 12.3 points to 57.8. That's the highest level since 2011. Prices received rose 8.2 points to 23.4. Manufacturers expectations for business conditions in the next 6 months rose 3 points to 34.9. The Empire State index gets market attention because it is seen as a leading indicator for the national ISM manufacturing index. In Jan, the ISM factory index slipped from its highest reading in more than 2 years to 58.7. That was still the 8th straight month above the 50% break between contraction & expansion & economists think the factory sector is humming along. Price pressures reflect continued growth in demand & some bottlenecks in the supply chain. Economists are watching closely to see if these prices pressures spill over into broader inflation readings.
Empire State February manufacturing index hits highest level in seven months
Gold futures fell to settle below the key $1800 mark for the first time in over a week, with investors focused on a strong climb for benchmark bond rates, which can compete against bullion for haven bids. Bond rates were aloft, touching the highest level in about a year, reflecting what some refer to as a risk-on environment centered on hope of progress toward a $1.9T coronavirus relief package from the Biden administration, as well as declining cases of COVID-19 & an increasingly successful vaccine rollout. Apr gold fell $24 (1.3%) to settle at $1799 an ounce, falling below the psychologically significant level of $1800. Prices haven't settled below that key level since Feb 4. The price drop for bullion accelerated somewhat after the New York Fed's Empire State business conditions index above showed a rise of 8.6 points to 12.1 in Feb, marking the highest level of activity since Jul. The fprecast expected a reading of 5.9. Moves for the metals come after gold put in a weekly gain of around 0.6% on Fri, which was its first weekly climb since the week ended Jan 22.
Gold prices settle below $1,800 as bond yields rise
The 7-day average of new Covid-19 cases in the US fell 23% from a
week ago to about 85K as of Feb 15, while Covid-related deaths hold
steady at roughly 3K per day, according to a 7-day average of
data from Johns Hopkins University. The rollout of Covid vaccines in the
US has been slow & complex. To reach more Americans, CVS Health (CVS) & Walgreens (WBA), a Dividend Aristocrat, were tapped to play a bigger role as a federal program ships doses to more of their stores & other retail pharmacies.
Covid updates: Moderna expects to deliver 100 million shots to U.S. in 6 weeks as new cases drop
The Biden administration is increasing the number of Covid-19 vaccine doses shipped to states weekly, sending out 13.5M doses this week & doubling the number going to retail pharmacies, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said. As of last week, the administration was sending out 11M doses to states every week. Overall, Psaki noted, the administration has increased the number of doses shipped weekly to states by 57% since Pres Biden was inaugurated. Psaki also announced that the White House is doubling the number of doses being shipped directly to retail pharmacies around the country, expanding it from 1M doses sent to 6500 pharmacies last week. Psaki said the White House will ship 2M doses per week to stores going forward & plans to eventually expand to 40K stores nationwide. “This program will expand access in neighborhoods across the country so that people can call and make an appointment and get their shot conveniently and quickly,” she said. “This is a critical, critical part of our plan.” The administration has been announcing gradual increases in the amount of vaccine being distributed every week while opening up new distribution channels such as pharmacies, community health centers & federally run vaccination centers. After a slower-than-expected initial rollout of the vaccine, many states now say the lack of supply from the federal gov is the biggest constraint. The pace of vaccination across the country has picked up in recent weeks, & the difference between doses distributed & doses administered has narrowed. More than 52.8M doses have been administered as of Sun, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention, out of 70M doses delivered to states.
Biden administration increases number of Covid vaccine doses shipped weekly to states, pharmacies
Natural-gas futures led an across-the-board surge in energy prices, as swaths of the US struggled with subzero temperatures & rolling blackouts hit several states. Mar natural gas climbed 22¢ (7.5%) to settle at $3.129 per M British thermal units, with front-month contract prices logging their highest settlement since early Nov of last year. The surge in prices came as the Southwest Power Pool, a group of utilities covering 14 states, ordered utilities to start rolling blackouts to cope with an exhausted supply of reserve energy. That came as a winter storm swept from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast of the US, bringing freezing temperatures as far south as San Antonio. Extreme winter weather forced wind power generators in Texas offline & caused spikes in electricity prices. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas estimated 2M people were without power yesterday. Pres Joe Biden declared a state of emergency in Texas, at the request of Gov Greg Abbott, paving the way for emergency aid to reach the state. The storm has killed 2 people so far in Texas. The rare storm hitting Texas was also raising concerns over oil & oil product supply disruptions amid reports of some refineries shutting down due to extreme cold. The deep freeze also triggered a sharp gain in oil-futures prices. Regular trading in WTI, the US benchmark, was shut yesterday due to the Presidents Day holiday. Mar West Texas Intermediate crude rose 58¢ (1%) to settle at $60.05 a barrel — with front-month prices above $60 for the first time since Jan 2020. Apr Brent crude edged up by a nickel to $63.35 a barrel to eke out a finish at a roughly 13-month high. Tensions between the Saudis & Iran-backed Houthis rebels contributed to gains in oil prices late last week.
The whopper storm in Texas will make a dent in the country's economy, but there will be a recovery. Dow began the day higher but buyers were not able to build momentum. Covid data continues to show improvement, although virus keeps fighting back. Tomorrow could be another choppy day in the stock market.
Dow Jones Industrials
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